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According to a report from Kuai Technology on June 2, the semiconductor industry is currently facing a severe technical “winter,” with the chip tape-out success rate dropping to a historic low, posing significant challenges to industry development.
Data released by Siemens, a giant in the Electronic Design Automation (EDA) field, shows that the success rate of chip tape-outs, or the first design freeze, has plummeted to a historical low of only 14%. Two years ago, this figure was still at 24%, but it has now significantly declined. This means that among ten chip design companies, eight will fail at the first tape-out attempt, a staggering failure rate that is truly shocking.
After in-depth analysis by IC design professionals, it has been pointed out that the increasing complexity of chips and the shift in corporate development models are key factors leading to the significant decline in tape-out success rates. With the rapid advancement of technology, chips need to integrate more functions and higher performance, making chip design increasingly complex. Any minor error in the process can lead to tape-out failure. At the same time, companies are constantly adjusting their development models in pursuit of higher efficiency and lower costs, which has also increased the risks associated with tape-outs.
For chip design, tape-out is undoubtedly a crucial step, a matter of life and death. Simply put, tape-out is the process of handing over the completed chip design to a wafer foundry to produce samples, thereby testing whether the chip design meets expectations. It is a key milestone in the chip development process; only with a successful tape-out can the chip have a chance to enter the market.
However, once a tape-out fails, the consequences can be dire. The several million yuan invested in R&D costs will be completely wasted, which is a heavy blow for any company. More critically, in the fiercely competitive semiconductor market, time is of the essence; a tape-out failure could cause a company to miss market opportunities and fall far behind competitors.
In the face of such a severe situation, the future of the semiconductor industry may trend towards specialized division of labor and outsourcing to ASIC companies for chip development. Through specialization, companies can delegate certain aspects of chip design to more professional teams, improving design quality and efficiency; outsourcing to ASIC companies can leverage their rich experience and advanced technology to reduce tape-out risks and enhance the success rate of chip development.
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