Recently, there has been a notable movement in the stock market—ASIC concept stocks have suddenly surged! Cambricon has seen a slight increase, while Chipone has skyrocketed! What is the logic behind this? How should the average person understand these two companies?
First, we need to understand why ASICs have suddenly become popular. Simply put, major companies do not want to be “choked” by NVIDIA! Recently, there has been a significant rumor—Meta may procure TPU chips from Google, which directly challenges NVIDIA’s dominance in the GPU market! Once the news broke, the entire market went into a frenzy. The mindset of major clients is clear: they cannot rely solely on GPUs; they must walk on two legs with both GPUs and ASICs. This has opened a window of opportunity for domestic companies like Cambricon and Chipone!
Next, let’s focus on Cambricon. This company was previously labeled as a “money-burning king,” but the situation has changed! The latest financial report shows significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a turning point in performance! Why the sudden improvement? Two reasons: first, AI models require a large amount of inference computing power, and Cambricon’s cloud inference chips are perfectly positioned to capitalize on this trend; second, their “cloud + edge” dual-track strategy is smart, as they cater to both large data centers and embedded devices, which is particularly appealing in the context of emphasizing self-control in China.
However, caution is advised! Although Cambricon has high elasticity, it also has significant volatility. It primarily sells complete chips and computing power solutions, which is somewhat like “betting big”—if it succeeds, the profits are substantial, but the risks are also considerable. In the short term, it indeed benefits from the explosive demand for AI computing power, but in the medium to long term, three key factors will determine its success: can it convert orders into long-term contracts? Can it maintain its gross margin? Can its software ecosystem retain customers?
Now, let’s talk about Chipone, which has a more “stable” business model! The latest data shows that they signed nearly 1.6 billion yuan in new orders in the third quarter, a staggering increase of 145%! Their backlog has reached a historical high of 3.28 billion yuan, with a significant portion of AI-related orders. What does Chipone do? In simple terms, they are a “chip design service provider,” selling both IP licenses and taking on custom chip design projects. The advantage of this model is high order visibility and relatively stable cash flow.
However, Chipone also faces its own challenges: if major clients start developing their own chips, its outsourcing business will be affected. Fortunately, under the current trend of domestic substitution, leading clients are more willing to deepen their partnerships with Chipone.
Comparing the two companies makes things clearer:
Cambricon is like the “radical faction,” with high growth elasticity but also high volatility; Chipone is more like the “conservative faction,” with high order visibility and steadier growth.
When market sentiment is high, companies like Cambricon with strong narratives are more favored; but when market uncertainty arises, Chipone’s tangible orders are more resilient.
So, what does the future hold? I envision three scenarios:
First, the optimistic scenario: domestic substitution accelerates, and both companies secure large long-term contracts, leading to mutual growth!
Second, the neutral scenario: the market forms a coexistence of GPUs and ASICs, with Cambricon continuing to grow but under pressure on gross margins, while Chipone progresses steadily.
Third, the pessimistic scenario: major clients flock to Google’s TPU or develop their own chips, leading to a shrinking outsourcing market, which would impact both companies.
Finally, here are some practical suggestions:
If you are trading short-term: focus on news! The procurement progress of Meta and Google, NVIDIA’s responses, quarterly reports—any of these news items could cause significant stock price fluctuations.
If you are trading medium to long-term:
For Cambricon, watch whether it can convert short-term orders into long-term partnerships;
For Chipone, focus on order conversion efficiency and new customer expansion.
Always remember to manage risks! Set stop-loss lines, build positions in batches, and closely monitor major client dynamics and changes in international trade policies.
In summary, in the short term, focus on market sentiment; in the medium term, focus on order fulfillment; and in the long term, focus on ecosystem development. Cambricon is pursuing a platform-based approach, offering great imaginative potential; Chipone is following a customized approach, providing higher certainty. The current heat around ASICs presents revaluation opportunities for both companies, but ultimately, who will come out on top depends on who can turn short-term opportunities into long-term moats.