The chip packaging industry is at a crossroads in the “post-Moore’s Law era.” Based on the latest information from multiple authoritative organizations and industry leaders for 2024-2025, the future development trends over the next 5-7 years can be summarized with “six key terms + three roadmaps.”
Keyword 1: System-Level Ultra-Large Packaging (SLP/CoPoS)
• In 2025, TSMC will begin mass production of CoWoS-L 5.5× reticle (≈66×83 mm), and by 2027-2028, CoPoS will expand the substrate to 310×310 mm, accommodating 12-16 HBM4 chips + 4-6 logic chiplets, becoming the standard form for AI training cards.
• Intel plans to launch “Foveros Direct 3D-OMNI” in 2026, allowing the packaging of CPU, GPU, HBM, and I/O chiplets in an area exceeding 2500 mm², with signal latency <2 ns and bandwidth density increased by 300 times.
Keyword 2: Chiplet + UCIe Ecosystem Formation
• In 2025, UCIe 1.1 PHY will be fully implemented, with TSMC, Samsung, Intel, ASE, and JCET providing authorized hard cores.
• AMD’s EPYC 9004 has achieved 8+1 Chiplet configuration, with yield increasing from 26% to 89%, and costs reduced by 40%. It is expected that by 2027, the proportion of server CPU Chiplets will exceed 70%, and mobile SoCs will adopt a “2 logic + 1 baseband + 1 ISP” 4-Chiplet solution.
Keyword 3: 3D Stacking Deepening
• SK Hynix’s 12-layer HBM4 uses 60 k TSVs, with each layer thickness of 5 µm and bandwidth of 2 TB/s; Samsung’s 16-layer V-NAND will begin mass production in 2026, with stacking height exceeding 200 µm.
• TSMC’s SoIC-M will achieve over 20 layers of SRAM on Logic in 2026, targeting AI inference cache wall scenarios, with energy efficiency improved by 35%.
Keyword 4: Panel-Level Packaging (PLP/FOWLP-SiP) Cost Inflection Point
• In 2025, the cost of fan-out wafer-level packaging (FOWLP) will drop to 70% of traditional FC-BGA, with Apple A18 and Samsung Exynos 2500 fully adopting it.
• By 2027, the yield of panel-level packaging (PLP) will exceed 95%, with a single 510×515 mm substrate capable of producing 2500 mobile PMICs, with a single unit cost of <0.35 USD.
Keyword 5: Heat Dissipation Transition from “External” to “Built-in”
• On-chip microchannel liquid cooling (TSMC SoIC-M) has a thermal resistance of 0.05 ℃·cm²/W, to be introduced to HPC customers in 2026.
• 3D-VC uniform temperature plates + two-phase fluorinated liquid immersion cooling, with a single cabinet achieving 120 kW PUE of 1.05, will be commercially available by Alibaba Cloud in 2025.
Keyword 6: Collaborative Innovation in Materials, Equipment, and Software
• Materials: Low CTE molding plastics, diamond-copper composite substrates, and indium-based TIM Gen-2 will be fully mass-produced;
• Equipment: Zhongwei TSV etching machines, Huazhuo Precision’s hybrid bonding equipment, and Huafeng’s wafer-level die bonding machines will complete domestic substitution;
• Software: Cadence/Synopsys will launch a “3D IC thermal-electrical-mechanical” collaborative simulation platform, with a single iteration time of <4 hours.
Roadmap 1: Technology Evolution Timeline (2025-2030)
2025:
• Mass production of CoWoS-L 5.5× reticle; Foveros Direct 10 µm pitch; HBM4 12 layers commercialized.
2026:
• Trial production of CoPoS 310 mm substrate; SoIC-M 20 layers SRAM; 3D-VC uniform temperature plates for automotive applications.
2027:
• CoWoS 9.5× reticle 120×150 mm; Chiplets will become common in mobile SoCs; PLP yield will reach 95%.
2028:
• 3D stacked logic-DRAM bandwidth will reach 4 TB/s; on-chip microchannel liquid cooling will become standard for AI servers.
2030:
• Wafer-level system packaging (InFO_SoW) single package of 5000 mm², power consumption <1 pJ/bit; UCIe 3.0 will support 4 TB/s interconnect.
Roadmap 2: Application Penetration Rhythm
• AI/HPC: From 2025, 2.5D/3D packaging will be predominant, with a penetration rate of 100% by 2030.
• Consumer Electronics: By 2026, flagship mobile Chiplet SoCs will account for >50%; all AR/VR will use WLCSP/PLP.
• Automotive Electronics: In 2027, L4 domain controllers will adopt 3D packaging + embedded microchannel cooling, with automotive-grade temperature cycling of 4000 times with zero failures.
Roadmap 3: Industry Collaboration Models
• IDM+Foundry: TSMC, Samsung, and Intel will provide one-stop “silicon-packaging-cooling” services;
• OSAT+System Manufacturers: ASE, JCET, and Tongfu Microelectronics will collaborate with end customers for joint design (JDM);
• Equipment/Materials Manufacturers: ASML, TEL, Zhongwei, and Huazhuo Precision will work with customers 2-3 years in advance to co-develop the next-generation platform.
In the next five years, chip packaging will no longer be just an “enclosure,” but a combination of “system-level ultra-large platforms + Chiplet Lego + built-in cooling + panel-level cost advantages.” Whoever can master large substrates, 3D interconnects, the Chiplet ecosystem, and integrated cooling will hold the pricing power in the post-Moore’s Law era.