The Promising Future of ASIC Chips

ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit), as a chip customized for specific scenarios, is becoming a core computing power carrier in fields such as AI and data centers due to its high efficiency and low power consumption. The following is an overview of the technical paths, industry chain, market landscape, and future trends:

1. Technical Paths and Industry Chain

ASIC achieves efficient processing of specialized tasks through hardware-level optimization, with the main technical paths including:

1. Fully Custom ASIC: Completely self-designed circuits, suitable for high-performance requirements (such as AI inference chips), but with high R&D costs and long cycles.
2. Semi-Custom ASIC: Designed based on standard cell libraries or gate arrays, balancing flexibility and cost, widely used in communications and consumer electronics.
3. Structured ASIC: Predefined circuit modules that support rapid customization, suitable for small to medium batch scenarios.

The industry chain shows vertical division of labor:

• Upstream: EDA tools (Synopsys, Cadence), IP cores (ARM, Cambricon), wafer foundries (TSMC, SMIC).
• Midstream: Design companies (Broadcom, Huawei Ascend), foundries (TSMC holds 60% of the global ASIC foundry market).
• Downstream: Packaging and testing (JCET, ASE) and application fields (data centers, automotive electronics, smart terminals).

2. Market Size and Competitive Landscape

• Global Market: Expected to reach $27 billion in 2024, projected to grow to $43.39 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 8.23%. North America (Broadcom, Marvell) dominates the high-end market, while Asia-Pacific (China, South Korea) is rapidly rising in consumer electronics and automotive sectors.
• Chinese Market: Expected to reach 3.2 billion yuan in 2024, projected to increase to 5.58 billion yuan by 2027, with an annual growth rate of 20%. Huawei Ascend and Cambricon are making breakthroughs in AI chips, while Chipone provides one-stop ASIC customization services.

3. Core Application Scenarios

1. AI Inference: ASICs significantly outperform GPUs in energy efficiency, with Google’s TPUv5 achieving 40% higher computational efficiency, and Amazon’s Trainium2 costing only 60% of NVIDIA’s H100.
2. Data Centers: Broadcom’s Tomahawk 5 switch chip supports 56Tbps bandwidth, driving upgrades in data center networks.
3. Automotive Electronics: Horizon’s automotive chips and Huawei’s intelligent driving ASIC meet autonomous driving needs, with the global automotive ASIC market exceeding $8 billion in 2023.
4. Consumer Electronics: Allwinner Technology’s smart terminal chips and Rockchip’s AIoT chips hold a 61% share of the smart home market.

4. Technical Challenges and Breakthroughs

• Advanced Process Bottlenecks: Designs below 5nm have high complexity, with single wafer costs exceeding $50 million, and TSMC’s CoWoS packaging capacity limits multi-chip integration.
• Lack of Flexibility: Once functions are fixed, software upgrades are difficult, requiring precise definition of needs, suitable for mature algorithm scenarios (such as AI inference).
• Progress in Domestic Substitution: The RISC-V + ASIC combination bypasses ARM/X86 patent barriers, with Alibaba’s T-head Xuantie series outperforming ARM chips by 30%.

5. Future Trends

1. Chiplet Technology Popularization: Reducing design costs through heterogeneous integration, with Marvell’s Tranium3 and Huawei’s Ascend 910B adopting Chiplet architecture.
2. Deep Integration of AI and ASIC: Inference demand accounts for over 60%, with Broadcom predicting the AI XPU market will reach $60-90 billion by 2027.
3. Regional Supply Chains: China accelerates the construction of the RISC-V ecosystem, aiming for 70% of global shipments by 2025, promoting domestic substitution of server and autonomous driving chips.
4. Innovations in Packaging Technology: TSMC’s CoWoS capacity is expected to triple by 2025, supporting multi-chip integration of ASICs (such as CPU + NPU + ISP).

6. Policy and Capital Drivers

• China: Incorporating ASICs into the “14th Five-Year Plan” for new infrastructure, with special funds established in Beijing and Shanghai to support R&D, aiming to form a complete industry chain by 2030.
• United States: Restricting exports of advanced process equipment to China through the CHIPS Act, forcing domestic innovation in mature process ASICs.
• Capital Influx: Domestic ASIC financing is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan in 2024, with companies like Cambricon and Chipone receiving strategic investments.

ASICs are transitioning from a “supplementary role” to a “main force in computing power.” Despite facing technical barriers and ecological challenges, their advantages in energy efficiency and cost have attracted global attention. In the next decade, with the explosion of scenarios such as AI and autonomous driving, ASICs are expected to become a trillion-dollar industry, reshaping the global computing power landscape.