1. Tencent and AlibabaAI Strategy Divergence: Focused Refinement vs. Heavy Investment
Recently, Tencent and Alibaba released their financial reports for Q2 of fiscal year 2026, which corresponds to Q3 of 2025 (from July 1 to September 30). The divergence in AI strategies between these two Chinese internet giants is particularly evident in their capital expenditures.
Tencent: Steady.
The financial report shows that the capital expenditure for the third quarter was12.98 billion yuan, a decrease of 24% compared to the same period last year. More importantly, management clearly stated: “AI investments will strictly match the pace of commercialization, no longer pursuing rankings based on computing power.” In simple terms, it means: no more burning money to tell stories; instead, use the profits generated by AI to purchase GPUs. Tencent’s style is indeed very steady.
Alibaba:All in
Alibaba’s capital expenditure for the third quarter reached31.5 billion yuan, an increase of 80% year-on-year. At this rate, over three years, that is 12 quarters, if each quarter exceeds 30 billion, it will indeed reach the planned amount of 380 billion. CEO Wu Yongming emphasized during the conference call: “AI is Alibaba’s only way out, and we must seize the high ground at all costs.”
Currently, the market has a lot of confidence in Alibaba’s cloud computing business development, but is relatively pessimistic about its core e-commerce business. In the second quarter of this year, the market expected that the Taobao flash sales subsidy business could drive growth in e-commerce. From the results so far, has it been effective? Yes, but it has not yet met market expectations. Has the flash sales market share been captured? Yes. How is the retention situation? So far, it is okay, but we will see how retention holds up after reducing subsidies in the fourth quarter. The key now is that customers who took advantage of the Taobao flash sales have already done so, but not many new customers have started shopping on Taobao e-commerce as a result; at least the number of new customers is unsatisfactory. Now everyone is more savvy, comparing takeout options on Taobao and Meituan, and as the weather gets colder, the initial demand for tea drinks that Taobao flash sales focused on has also declined. Meanwhile, with the reduction in the amount of subsidy red packets for Taobao flash sales, the first batch of customers who took advantage of the offers has already cleared out.
The market is also voting with its feet; after Alibaba announced its financial report, the market drop was greater compared to other Chinese concept stocks. In contrast, Meituan saw a single-day surge of8%, primarily due to Alibaba’s statement about reducing subsidies for Taobao flash sales next quarter, indicating a shift towards optimizing profit metrics, which has led to a recovery in market expectations for Meituan’s performance in the fourth quarter.
Recently, I also researched JD Logistics and JD Group. After reviewing the financial reports, I indeed feel that as the initiator of this takeout battle, JD Logistics is retracting the fastest, and from the financial data, it is clear that JD’s financial strength is also struggling to continue. It would be better to focus on integrating their supply chain for their customers. It seems that the boss, Qiangzi, is still anxious; recently, he has ventured into coffee, travel, and reviews. Isn’t this just following Alibaba’s lead? The pressure is indeed quite high, but from another perspective, if JD does not engage in instant retail, JD’s advantage of “next-day delivery” will gradually lose its edge, and thus JD’s e-commerce business will be gradually eroded. (Investment should be cautious; this is just a personal opinion and should not be used as an investment basis; please make your own judgment).
Overall, I still hold the viewpoint expressed earlier. Tencent’s certainty is stronger, while Alibaba has greater flexibility in the AI era. Therefore, the investment style of investors will directly affect their positions. I prefer certainty to dominate, even if it means earning less; I prioritize certainty above all else. As for JD, I choose not to look at it for now. Finally, looking at this takeout war from a long-term perspective, fortunately, at the beginning of this year, Alibaba suddenly woke up and boosted Ele.me, mobilizing the entire company to compete. Now everyone is already accustomed to Taobao flash sales and the orange delivery riders on the streets; I think it is still worthwhile. In fact, the stock price trends of Alibaba, Meituan, and JD since the start of this battle already provide the answer.
2. Humanoid Robots: The Bubble is Bursting
Speaking of AI, I would also like to share my understanding of humanoid robots, which I truly find difficult to comprehend. The topic of robots has been discussed since the era of Kai-Fu Lee; there is actually no need for them to be humanoid, as long as they are practical. Currently, the hype around this concept is indeed exaggerated, especially for small enterprises in the A-share market, where valuations are skyrocketing.
At Tesla’s AI Day this October, Musk admitted that Optimus is at least 5-7 years away from being practical for home use and lowered the mass production expectations for 2026. Optimus is indeed the most challenging metric in Musk’s and Tesla’s equity incentive plan.
In fact, the safety risk issues surrounding robots will take many years to optimize. Watching videos of robots like Yushubot fighting against humans is even more terrifying. After all, these machines have strength and force, and it is normal for them to cause injury. Take the simplest manufacturing assembly line as an example; even in this day and age, workplace accidents involving workers being injured by machinery still occur frequently. Those in human resources know that this is a very common situation. The development of humanoid robots, and the currently recognized commercial path for their implementation, still needs to evolve into the field of home care, particularly for the elderly. I personally believe that there will not be any significant breakthroughs in the next few years.
In contrast, robotic vacuum cleaners are expected to exceed 50 million units shipped globally by 2025, with an average price dropping to 1500 yuan and a penetration rate exceeding 35%. What is the key to their success? A single function, extreme reliability, affordable pricing, and solving real pain points. Sometimes I think that investment is largely based on common sense; sometimes, when you calm down and think about it, the answers derived from common sense are the most reliable in the long term.
Little Nine maintains the view: Humanoid robots will require many more years before they may possess any initial consumer value.
The current hype is merely capital searching for a new story. The real opportunities may lie in specialized AI devices in vertical fields—such as surgical robots, logistics sorting robots, agricultural protection drones, or the “fire-fighting” drone robots that are urgently needed in Hong Kong today, etc. They do not pursue being “human-like”; they only pursue being “useful”.
In fact, “hype” is not entirely useless. Especially for retail investors, it has played a significant role. By contributing money, it can accelerate the advancement of industrial development, particularly for startups that are difficult and require substantial funding for high-tech industries. Otherwise, who would take the risk to start a business? Much of the early hype in various industries, including the development of the venture capital industry, has played a significant role in the innovation and technological advancement of the country and society.
As 2025 approaches, we have witnessed the development of AI this year. Although the application of AI is still somewhat below expectations, this year can only be described as the year of AI computing power, but it has not yet reached the year of AI applications. Looking at the long term, it is not about grabbing a big stock to go all in and then selling at the highest point; rather, it is about avoiding major mistakes on the long and steady investment path, so that the effects of compound interest can emerge.
May we always remain clear-headed and adhere to the long and steady investment path.
3. Finally, a few words about Taiwan:
Recently, there have been violent incidents in Taiwan. It is infuriating that some politicians from the green camp openly advocate for “collaborating with Japan against China” and even invite former Japanese officials to Taiwan for “exchanges.” Then today, I saw news of Taiwanese compatriots being injured in Japan.
Key historical points include the following:
1. Taiwan was long governed as part of Fujian province. Due to losing the First Sino-Japanese War, the Qing government was forced to cede Taiwan to Japan in the 1895 Treaty of Shimonoseki, leading to 50 years of Japanese colonial rule until the end of World War II.
2. After World War II, on October 25, 1945, the Chinese government held a surrender ceremony at the Taipei Public Hall (now Zhongshan Hall), officially recovering Taiwan and ending Japanese colonial rule. This day is known as “Taiwan Restoration Day,” a holiday commemorated by the people of Taiwan.
3. After the civil war ended, from 1949 to the present, although the two sides have not yet unified, national sovereignty and territorial integrity have never been divided. The One China principle is a common consensus in the international community. It is unacceptable for Japan to use this matter against us, and it is even more contemptible that some Taiwanese people seek help from their former enemy. Do these people understand history? Can they not shed tears when they see this brutal history? They forget that it was Japanese militarism that initiated the war of aggression against China, causing immense harm to the mainland, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and other regions.
Recently, the atmosphere has clearly changed. This year, films such as “Nanjing Photo Studio,” “Dongji Island,” and the documentary “Lisbon Silence,” which depict the brutality of the Japanese army during World War II, have been released. Everyone can reflect on this.
Creation is not easy; please give a “like,” share it in groups, on Moments, or recommend it to friends to encourage the author to update more.
Disclaimer: Little Nine’s notes are for record-keeping purposes only and may contain serious fallacies. Please do not use them as an investment basis. Investment carries risks; please be cautious when entering the market and control risks. Please be responsible for your own wallet. All articles from this account are original (handwritten), and reprints must indicate the original source. Thank you.