Have you ever wondered why a chip the size of a fingernail can sell for more than gold or even diamonds? In the current technological environment, chips are the food of modern industry and the scepter of great power competition. NVIDIA’s graphics cards have skyrocketed in price, and the costs of high-end manufacturing processes are astonishing, making it seem as if high technology must equate to “high prices.”
However, I would like to propose a viewpoint that may keep Wall Street elites awake at night: once China completely conquers core chip technology, the era of chips being priced like cabbage will inevitably arrive.This is not a devaluation of technological value, but an epic disruption regarding pricing power, as China is embarking on a path that the West has never imagined or dared to envision.To understand why chips are so expensive today, we must first grasp the concept of sunk costs,similar to the famous saying in the biopharmaceutical industry: “The cost of the first pill is one billion dollars, while the cost of the second pill is just a few cents.” Whether it is new drugs, software code, or chip design, they all follow the same brutal logic: all the money is consumed in the dark tunnel from 0 to 1.Look at NVIDIA, which is now thriving; before Jensen Huang became famous with AI, it endured over a decade of hardship. Those investments that seemed to yield no return and moments of near bankruptcy were all significant sunk costs. Therefore, when the product finally succeeds, the logic of Western companies is to set high prices, not only to recoup costs but also to earn excess profits to satisfy shareholders.
This is the key reason why India, despite being a major player in generic drugs, cannot lower the prices of original research drugs globally; they are merely imitating results without mastering the “roots” of core technology.However, what is the physical essence of chips? It is sand, specifically silicon. If the technological barriers are broken, the marginal cost will approach zero. Whoever can break the cycle of high investment requiring high returns will be able to redefine the rules of the game.While the West builds high walls, China has not adopted a head-on, homogeneous competition approach; instead, it has presented a unique combination of strategies.First move: “Reverse harvesting” by standing on the shoulders of giants.Instead of reinventing the wheel, we can quickly understand and absorb mature technologies through reverse engineering and in-depth analysis. This is not simple imitation but a secondary innovation after understanding the logic, which directly saves a lot of trial-and-error costs.Second move: The return of the world’s most expensive dowry talent.There is a saying that China does not respect scientific research talent, which is actually a major misunderstanding. In fact, over 70% of the R&D power in the global AI field is Chinese.As the ceiling continues to lower across the ocean, the deep sense of patriotism and the vast domestic platform have led countless top talents to choose to return. They bring back not only technology but also the belief in breaking through blockades. Those scientists who quietly research lithography machines and nuclear submarines are our strongest support.Third move: “Saturation rescue” that the West cannot learn.
This is the most critical difference. In the West, TSMC and Intel must consider yield rates; if they fall below 95%, they may incur losses and be held accountable by the board.However, at the initial stage of tackling challenges in China, we dared to accept yield rates of 50% or even lower.Why? Because we have the institutional advantage of concentrating our efforts on major tasks. We do not view chips merely as a transaction for individual enterprises but as the foundation of national strategic security. We can disregard the gains and losses of a single city or region, relying on vast capital and time to accumulate technological breakthroughs. Moreover, when chips become as ubiquitous as tap water, it represents an extraordinary infrastructure concept.Currently, although China still has gaps in the most advanced manufacturing processes, in the fields of 15nm and 20nm, the yield rates are already quite impressive. Coupled with China’s globally leading intelligent manufacturing supply chain, this is sufficient to support most application scenarios.Even more alarming is that China is currently leveraging what some call a frenzy to develop chip research and manufacturing.Looking back at our high-speed rail and cross-sea bridges, if we calculated investment returns in the way the West does, many routes might never have been built. Yet we built them, and ticket prices are very affordable. Why? Simply because with high-speed rail in place, logistics can flow smoothly, and people can be active, benefiting the entire economy.This is the ultimate vision for Chinese chips: not to gain high profits from selling chips themselves, but to make them as fundamental as water, electricity, and high-speed rail.When BYD’s smart cars, with annual sales in the tens of millions, are on the roads, each car becomes a mobile data center.When companies like DeepSeek can provide nearly free computing power,and when the world’s largest-scale Chinese electricity reserves continuously provide energy for AI computing…Chips will no longer be luxury items but “empowerment tools” that everyone can use.What the West considers “cabbage prices” will become a major profit dilemma, while what we consider “cabbage prices” will be a warm spring breeze that benefits everyone.China’s push for breakthroughs in the chip industry is not about becoming a future monopolist but about transforming the pinnacle of human wisdom into a “public good” that serves 1.4 billion people and even all of humanity.
This is not just a successful business model; it is a leap in the pattern of civilization.When chips enter the homes of ordinary people like cabbage, and computing power is no longer a barrier to innovation, that will be the brilliant moment when technology truly benefits humanity. And this day, with the acceleration of China’s progress, is slowly approaching.