China’s Reusable Rockets Enter Intensive Flight Phase, Satellite Networking Enters Low-Cost, High-Frequency Scaling Stage

First, let’s briefly outline the logic of the commercial space industry: grand and far-reaching.1. Orbital resources are non-renewable and limited: Earth’s low Earth orbit is expected to accommodate about 60,000 satellites (CCID).2. The principle of first-come, first-served creates urgency in the arms race: The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) stipulates that the acquisition of orbital and frequency resources follows the “first-come, first-served” principle, and early-launching countries have significant advantages.3. The main competition globally is between China and the United States, with the U.S. primarily represented by SpaceX, while China is currently lagging behind.4. China plans to launch over 20,000 satellites, but has only launched around 1,000 so far, creating market space for satellites. Previous plans such as Hongyan and Hongyun did not meet expectations in actual launch situations (data source: Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics 2024.01). Currently, the main projects are GW and G60, which together have plans for over 20,000 launches, but less than 1% have been completed so far. GW has applied to the ITU for two constellations totaling 12,992 satellites (as of March 25, 2019, 32 have been launched), and G60 has plans for around 15,000 satellites (as of March 25, 2019, 94 have been launched).5. The industry trend is to reduce rocket launch costs —-> “one rocket, multiple satellites” (enhancing rocket capacity), “rocket recovery“ Currently, SpaceX has reduced the cost of low Earth orbit to about 10,000 yuan/kg, while China’s Long March series is still in the range of 40,000–90,000 yuan/kg, and commercial rockets are mostly above 100,000 yuan/kg. After reducing launch costs, China’s satellite launches are expected to enter the “low-cost, high-frequency scaling” stage.“Rocket recovery technology maturity is an important milestone for the industry, and by the end of the year, we will enter a phase of intensive launches, potentially accelerating the development of the domestic satellite industry chain. Zhuque-3 (the first, significant): Reports indicate a planned first flight in mid to late November (next week). Prior to this, no reusable rocket in China has completed a launch mission. Zhuque-3 is expected to become China’s first operational reusable launch vehicle. Zhuque-3 is the world’s first all-stainless steel liquid oxygen-methane rocket, with the “stainless steel + methane” combination focusing more on reuse lifespan and future scalability. In terms of launch costs, Zhuque-3 aims to match Falcon 9, targeting a cost of less than 20,000 yuan per kilogram, which is roughly equivalent to Falcon 9 (about 3,000 USD/kg).

Personal phased learning notes, for reference only.