The process of China’s chip manufacturing equipment technology catching up with Europe and the United States shows characteristics of phased breakthroughs, with varying progress speeds across different fields. Based on the current industry status and technological roadmap, the following key milestones can be identified:
1. Mature Process Equipment (2-5 years)
– **28nm Lithography Machine**: The SSA600/20 lithography machine from Shanghai Micro Electronics is expected to be delivered in 2025, marking a substantial breakthrough in the full localization of 28nm DUV lithography equipment, which can meet mainstream demands in automotive electronics and industrial control.
– **Localization of Supporting Equipment**: The localization rate of core processes such as etching machines (Zhongwei Company), thin film deposition equipment (Tuo Jing Technology/Northern Huachuang), and cleaning equipment (Shengmei Shanghai) has exceeded 60%, with an overall localization rate of over 80% for 28nm process equipment.
– **Material Breakthroughs**: Key materials such as KrF/ArF photoresists and high-purity silicon wafers have entered the production line verification stage, with large-scale replacement expected within five years.
2. Advanced Process Equipment (5-10 years)
– **Multiple Exposure Technology**: SMIC has achieved mass production of an equivalent 7nm process using immersion DUV lithography machines combined with self-aligned quadruple patterning technology, with small batch production of 5nm line-width chips expected in 2025, although costs are 50% higher than EUV solutions.
– **EUV Lithography Alternatives**: New technological routes such as quantum chips (Benyuan Quantum) and photonic chips bypass the limitations of lithography machines, with quantum chip production lines expected to achieve over 90% yield by 2025, processing specific problems at speeds 450 million times faster than classical computers.
– **Equipment Ecosystem Reconstruction**: China is dismantling the ASML lithography ecosystem (light sources/lenses/control software, etc.), simultaneously tackling challenges in 14nm lithography machine verification (Shanghai Micro Electronics) and precision optical systems.
3. Cutting-edge Equipment (10 years or more)
– **Localization of EUV Lithography Machines**: Core technologies such as extreme ultraviolet light sources and precision optical systems need to be overcome, with engineering applications expected to be realized in 10-20 years.
– **3nm Process Bottleneck**: DUV multiple exposure technology is approaching physical limits, and the 3nm process will rely on EUV or breakthroughs in entirely new principles, with no clear timetable currently available.
4. Accelerated Industry Collaboration
– **International Recognition**: International giants like Bosch from Germany have already purchased 28nm equipment from Shanghai Micro Electronics, and the EU’s “Chip Act” allows member states to use Chinese equipment to build mature process production lines.
– **Capacity Support**: By 2025, China’s daily chip production is expected to reach 1.41 billion pieces, accounting for 23% of global capacity, with a self-sufficiency rate projected to reach 70% by 2030.
– **Cluster Effect**: The semiconductor industry clusters in the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao are forming synergistic advantages, with the localization rate of equipment expected to reach 50% by 2025.
Summary of Catch-up Path
| **Mature Process** | Full Localization of 28nm Equipment | 2025-2028 | Meets 80% of Industry Demand
|| **Advanced Packaging** | Commercialization of HBM2e/Chiplet | 2025 | Stacking thickness <1mm, globally leading
|| **Alternative Technologies** | Mass Production of Quantum/Photon Chips | 2025-2030 | Bypasses EUV limitations
|| **EUV System** | Breakthroughs in Core Subsystems | 2030-2035 | Localization of Extreme Ultraviolet Light Sources/Optical Systems
Currently, China is accelerating breakthroughs through a dual-track strategy of **”Consolidating Mature Processes + Overtaking with New Principles”**. Although cutting-edge equipment such as EUV lithography machines still require long-term investment, a complete independent industrial chain has been established for nodes of 28nm and above. Combined with advanced packaging and emerging technologies such as quantum computing, it is expected to achieve global competitiveness in the semiconductor equipment system within ten years.