The Shanghai Composite Index, looking at the weekly chart, is expected to open next week around 3810, with strong support at 3810; observing the larger pattern, 3800 serves as a significant platform with robust support. I lean towards a low probability of the Shanghai Composite Index breaking below 3800 next week, favoring a fluctuation range of 3800 to 3920, actively trading multiple stocks.
The index is unlikely to reverse in the short term, and reaching 3950 by New Year’s Day will be challenging; if it does rise, it will likely be in mid to late December. The main trend for the index over the next month will be a fluctuation between 3800 and 3950, with many opportunities in individual stocks, although some sectors have just begun to decline.
Key areas to watch in the short term include: AI applications, pharmaceuticals (influenza, innovative drugs), consumer goods, humanoid robots, quantum technology, controlled nuclear fusion, aerospace powerhouses, consumer electronics (Apple supply chain, Huawei supply chain), and real estate, all presenting numerous opportunities. Also, keep an eye on: semiconductor chips, solid-state batteries, energy storage, esoteric horses, cross-strait relations, brain-computer interfaces, hydrogen energy, computing power, and the Nvidia supply chain.
First, let’s discuss sectors to avoid, particularly the Nvidia supply chain. The bellwethers for the Nvidia supply chain are New Zhongtian and Shenghong Technology. I have repeatedly emphasized that Shenghong Technology, New Yisheng, and Tianfu Communication are likely to test their six-month moving average soon; if they pull back to this level, the Nvidia supply chain will not perform well, and the declines will be more significant.
Secondly, avoid sectors related to solid-state battery resources, as a further 35% drop in the short term is quite normal. The recent surge in solid-state battery resources was primarily orchestrated by major players in the resource pricing. I once conducted research, and a business owner stated well that while people can rest, machines should ideally operate 24 hours a day, and any faults should be resolved immediately. It is impossible for production to halt during peak seasons.
The third area to avoid is storage chips, which have already started to decline from high levels.
AI applications were the strongest on Friday; in fact, I had already discussed the core stocks related to AI applications before the market opened on Monday. The weekend buzz around AI applications, particularly related to Google and Qianwen, was significant; the news from Google was already available before Friday’s market opened, and several stocks saw rapid gains during Friday’s morning session, with significant volume in the afternoon. If you want to participate on Monday, consider: Huanrui Century, Zhengzhong Design, Vision China, Yidian Tianxia, and Pinggao Co., Ltd. Participating in these stocks is less likely to result in losses, while engaging with others may lead to easy losses. Other stocks to watch include: BlueFocus Communication Group, Shida Group, Inspur Software, Wanxing Technology, Zhongwen Online, InSai Group, Yaowang Technology, and 360.
Regarding innovative drugs, I believe there are opportunities in segments; the short-term adjustment space is limited to between 3 and 22. I mainly focus on: Sanofi, Guangsheng Tang, Shutai Shen, Anglikang, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, Maiwei Bio, Furui Co., Ltd., and Changshan Pharmaceutical; I will only pay attention to others if they see significant increases.
In the short term, robotics may also be viable, even showing some fluctuations. When AI hardware, semiconductor chips, solid-state batteries, and robotics were all experiencing violent surges, they were driven by the same large funds. Currently, the other three are prone to declines, leaving robotics as the only option. Robotics has ample adjustment time and strong popularity; although many are hyping AI applications, I lean towards a fluctuating market, making robotics a more favorable choice.
Quantum technology ranks first, and currently, international investments are pouring into quantum technology, with its core now at an absolute bottom. However, as institutions settle accounts, we can expect a surge in quantum technology as December approaches.
Big tech is confirmed to be struggling, while consumer goods and pharmaceuticals may still have potential. In the coming month, consumer goods will likely see significant fluctuations similar to real estate, as the industry’s fundamentals do not promote sales, and many… are facing difficulties in affording meals. Consumer goods should not be pre-judged; participation should focus on the top three stocks in terms of growth.
Real estate is at an absolute bottom; participation should focus on real estate services: I Love My Home, Shilian Hang, TeFa Service, and Debi Group are better options. Additionally, consider historically active stocks: Tianbao Infrastructure, Guangda Jiabao, Huaxia Happiness, and Caixin Development.
Market logic is crucial, but individual stocks also require a bit of luck. The individual stocks I mention all have outstanding fundamentals, but the stock market is fraught with uncertainties, and there is no guarantee that buying in will lead to significant gains. Although my past analyses have had a high accuracy rate, given my personal level, it is impossible to achieve precise analysis every time; these views are for reference only, and risks are to be borne by the individual!