6 Real Cases to Understand How Robots and AI Quickly Achieve Commercialization

Humanoid robots are the ‘steam engines’ of the new era; whoever controls them holds the key to the next century’s industrial revolution.Author:dp Deliberate LearningAccording to a report by Fortune Business Insights, the global service robot market is expected to reach approximately $22.4 billion in 2024, with an anticipated growth to about $26.35 billion by 2025 and around $90.09 billion by 2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of about 19.2%. In China, the humanoid robot market is growing particularly rapidly, with some reports predicting its size will leap from approximately $2 billion in 2024 to over $13.2 billion by 2029. Venture capital interest in this field is also shifting from the periphery to the center. In 2024, robot-related startups are expected to raise a total of about $7.2 billion, with companies like Figure AI, Physical Intelligence, and Skild AI achieving high valuations.

“Industrial automation” is no longer the only battlefield; service robots are expanding into various scenarios such as healthcare, logistics, hospitality, security, and home services. Another report on global service robots predicts that by 2034, the market size will reach approximately $212.77 billion, with an average annual growth rate of about 15%.

Meanwhile, China holds about 63% of the global humanoid robot supply chain, possessing strong competitiveness in core hardware such as actuators, sensors, and reducers.

Advantages and Opportunities of Humanoid Robots / Service Robots

1. Strong technological integration and application potential: The integration of AI models (including language models, vision models, motion planning, etc.) with hardware actuators, sensors, and power systems is becoming increasingly mature. For example, humanoid robots manufactured by AgiBot in China can already handle complex tasks such as assembly and quality inspection, incorporating advanced models like DeepSeek, Qwen, and Doubao to enhance the reasoning and understanding capabilities of the “robot brain.” This technological integration improves both user experience and industrial applicability of service robots.

2. Decreasing costs and mature supply chains: China’s policy support and the completeness of its industrial chain are rapidly reducing the costs of core components. For key hardware such as actuators and sensors, Chinese manufacturers can generally respond quickly to customer needs, with high efficiency in terms of geography and transportation. Quotes ranging from hundreds of thousands of dollars to tens of thousands or even lower are no longer uncommon.

3. Strong and diverse market demand: On one hand, an aging population is driving demand for medical and elderly care service robots; on the other hand, industries such as e-commerce, warehousing, and delivery are experiencing explosive demand for logistics, cleaning, and inspection service robots. Post-pandemic public health safety, disinfection of offices and public facilities, and unmanned patrols are all providing real business opportunities.

4. Policy dividends and national strategy driving: For instance, China has announced the establishment of a national strategic capital fund of nearly 1 trillion RMB to support high-tech industries such as robotics and AI. The scale of government procurement and subsidies is also significantly increasing. These measures lower the market entry barriers and financial pressures for early and mid-stage companies.

Challenges and Pitfalls: Where VC Might Have Doubts

1. Technical difficulties have not been fully overcome: Even in China, achieving balance, grasping objects, and performing fine manipulation (dexterity) in complex environments, as well as autonomous navigation and collaboration, remain very challenging. Hardware durability, energy consumption, and reliable software verification are still “brick walls.” VCs will be very cautious about the maturity and replicability of these foundational technologies.

2. High risks in business models and market implementation: Many robot prototypes perform well, but transitioning from prototype to scale production, from small batch applications to large project contracts, and from customized scenarios to standardized general products are all significant hurdles. End customers for service robots (such as hotels, medical institutions, and nursing homes) often have long procurement cycles, loosely defined needs, and difficulty quantifying user benefits.

3. Long investment cycles and uncertain returns: Robotics companies often require heavy investment, and the construction of production lines, trial-and-error cycles, regulatory safety, and compliance requirements can lead to slow capital recovery. If products cannot quickly generate incremental revenue or reduce costs, VCs are likely to withdraw.

4. Talent and supply chain risks: While software talent is relatively easy to mobilize globally, hardware talent, especially in areas such as mechatronics, control systems, materials science, and custom robot design, is scarce. Although the supply chain is mature, there remains a reliance on foreign manufacturers for high-end components such as ball screws and key precision components and sensors.

Corporate Strategies and Real Cases: Who is Doing What

AgiBot (China) is a typical case. By the end of 2024, it claims to have started mass production of humanoid robots, launching several models, including bipedal and wheeled hybrid models for industrial assembly, quality inspection, and handling tasks, while also opening its robot database platform “AgiBot World” with the intention of establishing standards and reducing redundant construction. The corporate strategy is to penetrate manufacturing processes and edge scenarios, calibrating the combination of “brain + perception + execution” with real-world scenarios, while attempting to lower redundant costs through open-source or shared platforms.

Figure AI (USA) focuses on the path of “robots making robots” in the field of general humanoid robots, setting a production target of 12,000 units of humanoid robots per year at its BotQ factory, integrating hardware, software, and supply chains through automated production lines. Its large financing scale and high valuation exemplify the bets made by American VCs on general-purpose robots.

Examples of Policy and Capital Catalysts: In the past year, the Chinese government has provided over 20 billion RMB in procurement support for humanoid and service robots. In some government tenders, robot spending is expected to rise from approximately 4.7 million RMB in 2023 to about 214 million RMB in 2024. In this environment, the interplay of policy and market demand has accelerated commercialization.

From the VC’s perspective, what factors are most likely to impress them? The following points are crucial for startup teams in the humanoid/service robot field to consider and demonstrate:

1. Mastery of Key Core Technologies: If you can achieve breakthroughs in certain hardware areas (such as efficient actuators, precise sensors, low-power batteries, motion control algorithms, flexible joints, etc.), VCs will pay close attention, as these areas often represent hard-to-reach competitive advantages. The technological value is more compelling than mere product aesthetics.

2. Scalable Products and Standardized Components: Transitioning from prototype to mass production, from customized to modular products, is key to reducing costs and accelerating market expansion. Even if the applications of service robots may be highly scenario-specific, having standardized interfaces or configurable modules will enhance the potential for business expansion.

3. A closed loop of “brain + perception + execution + real-world feedback”: If AI models perform excellently only in online reasoning or simulations but encounter real-world issues such as dust, lighting, complex spaces, and hardware wear in actual environments, weaknesses may be exposed. VCs will examine records of performance outside the laboratory (pilot projects, user feedback, iteration speed).

4. Clear Path to Commercial Implementation and Profit Models: Is it selling products? Is it offering robot leasing services? Is it providing robot operation and maintenance services? Or is it platform/data services? Some companies can expand revenue more quickly through robot leasing and service contracts (service robots + operation and maintenance), alleviating user concerns about one-time high investments.

5. Team and Industry Chain Resources: Does the team have expertise in hardware, AI, operations, and product development? Are there existing collaborations with supply chain manufacturers? Is there policy support? Are there customer resources for implementation? Even with excellent technology, lacking resources that align with the ecosystem can hinder breakthroughs.

6. Financial Rhythm and Capital Efficiency: For VCs, the rhythm of investment and returns, as well as the speed of capital consumption, are often focal points. Even in hardware, demonstrating good capital utilization, fast trial-and-error speed, and the ability to showcase milestone achievements at various stages will be more attractive than prolonged consumption.

Warren Buffett once said, “Risk comes from not knowing what you are doing.” The risks in the robotics industry lie in underestimating the difficulties of practical implementation and the integration of hardware and software. A report by Morgan Stanley indicates that by 2050, the market for humanoid robots, along with related maintenance, spare parts, and support networks, is expected to exceed $5 trillion.

China already holds 63% of the global share in the humanoid robot supply chain, which means that if one can delve deeply into this segment, they may grasp the most lucrative part of the value chain.

A seasoned VC stated in an interview: “What I value most in the robotics field is not the flashy movements, but whether repetitive tasks can operate stably in real environments and whether maintenance costs can be kept within acceptable limits.” This grounded perspective is often overlooked by many robotics entrepreneurs.

The future of humanoid and service robots is not just a race of technology but a long-distance run of industry chain, capital, and social resonance. Looking ahead to 2030 to 2035, humanoid robots will gradually transition from laboratory and demonstration scenarios to large-scale commercial use in areas such as warehousing logistics, industrial assembly, public services, catering, and elderly care, while service robots (cleaning, inspection, delivery, companionship, etc.) will become a more integral part of everyday life.

To truly be seen by VCs and become winners in this wave, entrepreneurs and industry participants can consider the following constructive suggestions:

• Deeply layout key segments of the supply chain, not only integrating but also forming technological barriers and cost advantages in subfields such as actuators, reducers, sensors, and adapters.

• Establish small-scale real-world pilot projects that can iterate repeatedly, using real data to demonstrate product reliability and cost-effectiveness in complex environments.

• Seek government support and procurement contracts in policy-sensitive areas, driving with both policy and market. China has already set up national funds, local procurement, and subsidy systems, and those who understand how to dance with policy are more likely to succeed.

• Explore innovative business models, such as Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS), leasing + maintenance + data services, to alleviate customer concerns about one-time large investments.

• In terms of team building, balance soft and hard skills. Sufficient talent reserves and execution capabilities are needed in AI algorithms, motion control, mechanical design, embedded systems, user experience, and operation services.

• Advance risk management, such as safety standards, testing standards, energy consumption and durability, reliability testing, and social and ethical issues, such as job replacement and privacy concerns, as these are key areas VCs will focus on during later due diligence.