Tesla’s stock price saw a significant drop of over 4% on October 7. Market rumors are rampant. This is mainly due to the repeated downward adjustments of Tesla’s “Optimus” robot mass production targets, as the key technologies for the “Optimus” humanoid robot are difficult to achieve as expected.
Will Tesla’s humanoid robot be a “pipe dream” drawn by Musk?
This requires us to analyze from the development path of humanoid robots, technological advancements, and problem difficulties, in order to draw credible conclusions.
1. Tesla’s humanoid robot, target adjustment ≠ project failure.
Musk once proposed: to produce at least 5,000 “Optimus” robots by 2025, but this target was later adjusted to 2,000 units. As of July this year, only a few hundred units have been produced, far from expectations.
The “Optimus” robot is one of the most complex robots in human history, and its R&D difficulty far exceeds that of traditional industrial products. The adjustment of production targets is a respect for technological realities, rather than a betrayal of commitments.
2. Acknowledge the existence of technical difficulties and look forward to breakthroughs at the “bottleneck”.
Musk himself has publicly acknowledged that “the hands and forearms are the most challenging parts of the entire robotics engineering.” As one of the most successful business managers in the world today, Musk acknowledges and confronts the existence of technical difficulties, rather than avoiding challenges, which is the foundation for overcoming the “bottleneck”.
From some domestic videos about humanoid robot “dexterous hands”, it can be seen that: the degrees of freedom of humanoid robot hands are continuously increasing. The technological progress of humanoid robots is evident, and it is believed that overcoming technical bottlenecks is just a matter of time.
Recently, Musk released a video of the “Optimus” robot practicing Chinese martial arts. The movements of the “Optimus” in the video are fluid, not only able to judge the intentions of human trainers in real-time but also able to respond with appropriate defenses and counterattacks. The robot’s coordination and reaction speed are very close to that of professional martial artists. Moreover, Musk clearly responded that the “Optimus” is completely AI-driven, rather than remotely controlled. This shows that the Optimus robot has already possessed the “brain”, which is the most critical technology. It is believed that with continuous technological advancements, the technical difficulties will gradually be overcome.
Although Musk may have exaggerated the development goals of humanoid robots, this is merely a rhetoric of a business manager seeking investment and inspiring enthusiasm. His confidence and desire for the long-term development of humanoid robots are unmistakable.
Whether it is autonomous driving, or the recovery of SpaceX rockets, which of these was not questioned by most people when first proposed, yet the reality has proven those skeptics wrong.
If you believe that AI is the future of humanity, you should also believe that humanoid robots will become a reality. Because AI is the crucial point for the development of humanoid robots, and the hand is an extension of this brain (AI).