1. A-shares are soaring: 3900 points! But don’t rush to chase the highs.
On the first day after the National Day holiday, the A-shares jumped directly to 3934 points, reaching a ten-year high! However, a closer look at the market reveals a “colorful dance”— the resource sector rose by 7.6%, with 20 stocks hitting the daily limit; the semiconductor sector surged in the morning but plummeted in the afternoon, with SMIC going from a 9% gain to negative territory.
Why such a stark divergence?
- Global “re-inflation” is here: During the holiday, gold broke $4000, and copper prices hit a two-year high, with funds flowing into resource stocks for safety;
- The central bank injected 1.1 trillion, providing reassurance to the market;
- Tech stocks are being “predicted”: AMD secured a major chip order from OpenAI, but the IMF warned that the AI bubble might burst, leaving funds in a dilemma.
Advice for novices: Resource stocks (gold, copper) have solid logic, but don’t chase the volatile semiconductor sector; after the central bank’s liquidity injection, undervalued + high-dividend stocks (like Yangtze Power, Yanzhou Coal) are more stable.
2. Gold breaks $4000! The central bank has secretly bought for 11 months.
A historic moment: Gold has first broken $4000, and domestic gold prices have risen 5%. The two main driving forces behind this are:
- Global central banks are hoarding gold: China has increased its holdings for 11 consecutive months, with India and emerging markets following suit;
- In times of chaos, buy gold: The ceasefire between Israel and Palestine has not eliminated geopolitical risks, and the credibility of the US dollar is being questioned, making gold the “new anchor”.
Can ordinary people benefit?
- Jewelry gold ≠ investment gold: Brand gold prices have already broken 700 yuan/ gram, but gold bars and gold ETFs (like 518880) are closer to international prices;
- Beware of short-term corrections: The Fed’s repeated interest rate cuts may suppress gold prices, making long-term allocations safer.
3. The US-China tech war escalates: Rare earths and graphite controls retaliate against the US.
The Ministry of Commerce suddenly implemented export controls on superhard materials, artificial graphite, rare earth equipment, directly targeting the US’s “vital points”:
- China holds key minerals: 54% of the world’s germanium and 53% of gallium are supplied by China, threatening the US military and chip industries with supply shortages;
- Retaliation against US sanctions: Last week, the US placed 15 Chinese companies on the entity list, and this time, China’s controls include “third-party circumvention” clauses to block transshipment trade.
What is the impact?
- Short-term benefits for domestic rare earth companies (Northern Rare Earths hit the daily limit);
- Long-term pressure on the US to rebuild its supply chain, but soaring costs are inevitable.
4. Semiconductors: Morning euphoria, afternoon crash.
In the morning, Huahong’s “20cm” hit the daily limit, and SMIC rose by 9%, but in the afternoon, everything plummeted! Brokerages even adjusted SMIC’s margin financing rate to zero.
Why such excitement?
- Positive news (AMD collaborating with OpenAI) and negative news (US sanctions + bubble warnings) are offsetting each other;
- Institutions took the opportunity to offload, while retail investors were left holding the bag.
Retail investors’ painful lesson: The semiconductor cycle has entered a “high volatility phase”; don’t bet on single-day trends, focus on the long-term logic of domestic alternatives (equipment, materials).
5. National Day box office 1.8 billion, but the ambitions of cinemas extend beyond ticket stubs.
The National Day box office reached 1.835 billion, which seems modest, but the “film +” sector is quietly profiting:
- “The Volunteer Army” has boosted tourism to the Hengfeng Film Base in Jiangxi, with a 50% increase in visitors;
- Chongqing earned 5.3 billion in three days due to “Assassination of the Novelist 2”;
- Zhejiang and Liaoning are offering “ticket stubs for discounts,” covering dining, hotels, and intangible cultural experiences.
Insight: The performance turning point for cultural tourism stocks (scenic spots, hotels) may be approaching, especially focusing on county-level tourism targets with “big traffic in small cities” (like the partners of Xijiang Qianhu Miao Village).
6. Global signals: Interest rate cuts are coming, but bubbles are also on the way.
- The Fed hints at interest rate cuts: 90% of officials believe it should happen this year, with global liquidity expected to ease;
- However, the Bank of England warns: The current AI frenzy = 2000 internet bubble, and companies like AMD may suddenly stall.
Opportunities for ordinary people:
- Gold, copper, and other anti-inflation assets remain safe;
- Beware of overvalued tech stocks, especially small companies riding the AI wave;
- Domestic policy dividends (like the “14th Five-Year Plan”, new productive forces) remain the main line.
Conclusion: Cool reflections amidst the excitement.
This wave of market activity relies on resource stocks due to global chaos, while tech stocks depend on bubbles and dreams. Ordinary people should remember three things:
- Hold gold for the long term, but don’t chase jewelry gold;
- Only engage in semiconductors with “certain performance” in specific segments (equipment, domestic alternatives);
- Tourism consumption is sinking into small cities, look for low-position layouts.
Alright, the market is always changing, but the old adage of not being greedy, not following the crowd, and focusing on the long term is always valid.
(Data as of October 9, investment carries risks, this article is for casual reference only.)