On June 17, Nomura Securities released a latest research report stating that Meta is expected to launch its next-generation AI ASIC chip MTIAT-V1 as early as the fourth quarter of 2025. This chip is designed by Broadcom and utilizes high-spec 36-layer PCBs and hybrid cooling technology, with specifications exceeding those of NVIDIA’s next-generation AI chip “Rubin”.
The biggest change in computing power this round is the shift in narrative logic, with two main lines reversing the pessimistic expectations for computing power demand.
Inference demand becomes dominant → capex shifts to opex → cloud factory ASIC explosion → significant increase in PCB single-card value (detailed logic can be discussed privately) → the rise of sovereign AI → localized computing power clusters take over → NV lifecycle extension.
The core contradiction of PCBs still lies in production capacity. The expansion cycle that began in 2023 seems to align with AI demand, but in reality, the mainstream manufacturers’ expansions are concentrated in Southeast Asia, where capacity release is below expectations. The challenges of manpower and funding for new expansions domestically are significant, and capacity release will take time. Therefore, capacity will remain king and is expected to be the main theme for the next two years, with orders likely to see continuous overflow.
After Shenghong Technology and Shengyi Electronics reached new highs, what else can be bought?
Dongshan Precision: High-quality optical module assets are expected to continue exceeding expectations. With Dongshan’s empowerment, capacity expansion is accelerating, and the introduction of overseas customers is fully exceeding expectations. The performance in 2026 is expected to explode, and under vertical integration, optical chip resources are scarce, targeting a market value of 100 billion.
Huadian Co., Ltd.: The strongest overall strength, core supplier of switches and ASICs, supplying all major North American customers, including Google, Amazon, and Meta, with all self-developed products in supply. In terms of capacity, technical upgrades will continue to release new capacity from the second half of this year to next year, with performance expectations of 3.8 billion to 4.5 billion in 2025-2026. It is one of the most certain leaders, with a market value of 100 billion expected.
Shengyi Technology: High-speed CCL has rapidly increased in volume in the NV chain, and the future entry into AWS’s T3 has huge potential. CCL is the core driving force for the future upgrade of PCB value, with a better competitive landscape. Its subsidiary Shengyi Electronics can also significantly enhance consolidated profits, and a new market value high is expected.
Shennan Circuit: Overseas customers are severely undervalued, and there is still huge optimization space in product structure. Overseas customers include Arista, Google, and Meta. The profit elasticity of the optical module business is large, and the option value of the substrate business has not been effectively priced. The market value target is expected to catch up with Huadian.
Jingwang Electronics: Among the second-tier PCBs, it is the most promising variety. The company has a large reserve of HDI and high-layer capacity, and some part numbers have already passed NV certification. AI revenue is expected to be seen within the year, and performance in 2026 is expected to enter an explosive period.
CSP demand continues to exceed expectations, emphasizing the ASIC supply chain.
The direct catalyst comes from MRVL’s AI Day yesterday.The company’s guidance for 2028:Data center capex is expected to reach 1 trillion USD (up from 593 billion in 2025).The TAM for ASIC is 55.4 billion USD (up from last year’s forecast).At the same time, Meta is also planning to produce cabinet-level ASIC solutions, and the plans provided by various ASIC companies are relatively aggressive. Cowos capacity is starting to tighten again. We have emphasized in previous roadshows that foreign capital is once again focusing on Cowos capacity, marking the return of a sales-driven era.Here, we update the previous channel check:1. ASIC:Google: 1.8 million units in 2025, including 500,000 V6; 2.5 million units in 2026, with a small number of V6P.AWS: Close to 2 million units in 2025, 2.5 million units in 2026.Meta: 100,000 units in 2025, 1 million units in 2026.Main PCB suppliers in A-shares:Google (TPU): Huadian, Shennan; Shenghong for sampling.AWS (Trainium): Shengyi Electronics, Huadian; Guanghe for sampling.Meta (MTIA): Huadian, Shennan; Guanghe for sampling.2. Switches:Computing power clusters are moving towards 100,000 cards, and overseas have begun upgrading from 2-3 layer to 4-5 layer switch network architecture, with a 20% increase in 4-layer switches and a further 10% in 5-layer switches. Broadcom has also recently launched a 1.6T switch chip, significantly increasing PCB value.Main PCB suppliers in A-shares:Huadian is a core supplier for Cisco, Arista, Juniper, Mellanox, and Tianhong, with an overall share exceeding 40%;Shennan Circuit supplies a small amount to Arista, and Fangzheng supplies a small amount to Cisco and Mellanox.How to view the investment rhythm of the sector?① This round of AI market started with NV’s Beat, raising the GB200 Q2 shipment volume, and domestic capital was forced to cover shorts. Therefore, the first wave of leaders is Shenghong Technology, which is also the first PCB company to realize performance.② Recently, more reactions are reflected in the ASIC industry continuing to exceed expectations, so Huadian and Shengyi are leading the rise. Among them, Huadian’s capacity is expected to gradually come online in the second half of 2025, with a significant upward turning point in performance expected in Q1 2026.③ Looking ahead, we believe that although the AI sector has rebounded strongly, there is no bubble:→ Many quality targets, from PCBs to optical modules, still only have a PE of 10+ next year.→ In addition to the above sectors, there are many targets in optical chips, MPO, AIDC power supplies, copper cables, AEC, etc., that are lagging behind.Our overseas computing power chain combination:PCB Huadian, Guanghe; optical chip Yuanjie; MPO Bochuang, Taicheng; AIDC power Hewei; AEC Ruikeda.
We believe that at this time point, besides the mainstream core board manufacturers, the biggest beneficiaries are the HDI laser drilling equipment manufacturers.
HDI and high-layer boards have many processes that can be reused, but laser drilling is a process unique to HDI and directly affects the yield of HDI. A single HDI board requires 200,000 laser holes to be drilled.In the context of AI significantly driving the improvement of cloud and edge computing power, HDI is becoming increasingly important as a key PCB technology solution. The shift of the main suppliers of PCB supporting the GB series boards from Huadian to Shenghong is a result of this trend. In addition to AI servers, PCBs for automotive and humanoid robot main control chips also require a high HDI level, and as intelligence continues to improve, the elasticity on the edge side is greater.Currently, high-end PCB capacity is tight, and the high-layer capacity of various manufacturers is basically full, while high-end HDI is in a state of supply shortage. Laser drilling, as the most critical process for HDI, is expected to benefit greatly. The entire market structure for laser drilling is very clear, dominated by overseas Mitsubishi and domestic Dazhu CNC. Mitsubishi’s capacity for the next three years has been locked, and as a Japanese manufacturer, its expansion motivation is insufficient. We are optimistic about the elasticity of the domestic laser drilling supply chain. In addition, the company’s mechanical drilling equipment for high-layer boards is also expected to benefit significantly, with the proportion of high-value equipment expected to increase significantly. The company’s entire PCB drilling equipment accounts for about 70% of total revenue, and the logic for benefiting is clear.We recommend paying attention to: Dazhu CNC, Dazhu Laser.