When Trump announced his itinerary for the visit to China five months in advance, the whole world understood—this is not a diplomatic arrangement, but a “five-month return insurance” for Sino-U.S. relations!
The tariff war has turned into a sales event; it turns out that great power competition can also involve bargaining and free shipping!
Trump’s announcement of his first visit plan five months in advance is merely to achieve the effect of “pre-sale lock-in”.
The underlying message is that within five months, there will be no table flipping, ensuring a smooth visit and giving global capital peace of mind.
This is like an e-commerce pre-sale, collecting a deposit first, ensuring that prices won’t drop before the goods are shipped!
The central bank’s deep strategy of using gold: China is bringing its “hidden reserves” back home.
First is de-dollarization: using hard currency to hedge against U.S. debt risks;
Second is the struggle for pricing power: challenging the Anglo-American gold pricing hegemony, as this role has long been monopolized by the U.S. and the UK.
Finally, it is about strategic reserves: adding a gold engine to the internationalization of the renminbi.
While the U.S. is printing money, China is moving gold bars—this is the gap in the strategic landscape!
Purchasing U.S. soybeans at this time is a precise grasp of U.S. “election economics”
Because the U.S. is currently in the midst of midterm elections, buying soybeans now is equivalent to Trump delivering gifts to agricultural states in exchange for votes.
Agricultural voting: soybeans = red state votes, chips = blue state profits.
In the U.S., winning over farmers is more important than winning over Congress!
The reality of U.S. technology restrictions:
Corporate pressure: companies like Nvidia can’t wait for Congress to drag its feet;
Technological iteration: the “neck-choking” actually accelerates China’s independent research and development;
Gifts for the visit: we can’t let Trump come empty-handed.
After three years of blockade, China did not kneel, but U.S. companies did first!
Possible scenarios before Trump’s visit to China:
-
Best scenario: chips for rare earths, energy for infrastructure, reaching a new version of G2;
-
Standard operation: negotiating while fighting, the tariff war downgraded to technical friction;
-
Unexpected failure: a crisis in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, leading to a postponed visit.
When dealing with the U.S., always have a Plan B!When Trump’s plane lands in Beijing, the gold bars just returned to the warehouse in Pudong are performing a silent drama called ‘strategic balance’ alongside the chips waiting to be exported!
This round of Sino-U.S. interaction tells us: the highest realm of great power competition is not about who defeats whom, but about finding the code for mutual benefit exchange, just like during the Cold War under nuclear deterrence, the most dangerous moments often require a hotline!