Click the blue text above to follow me👆 On October 24, 2025, Friday, around ten o’clock in the evening. You might have just finished a day of work, scrolling through your phone, when you see a piece of news:
Intel turned a profit in the third quarter, and its stock surged 7.7% in after-hours trading.
This year, its stock price has already risen by over 90%.
You might be thinking: should I buy some? Hold on. Today, let’s talk about Intel without jargon or grand promises, using plain language to clarify the situation.
We will also take a look at whether the current US stock market is worth our attention. To start with the conclusion: Intel is indeed making money.
This is the first time it has returned to profitability after six consecutive quarters of losses. Once the financial report was released, the market reacted enthusiastically, pushing the stock price up nearly 8% in after-hours trading.
In a mature market like the US stock market, a single-day increase of over 7% is quite significant. But the question is, why is it making money now?
Is it because Intel has become stronger, or has the overall environment improved?
Or is it just a temporary rebound? To answer this question, we need to look at what Intel has experienced in recent years. Intel has had a tough time over the past few years.
Once the dominant chip maker, it has been repeatedly “educated” by TSMC, AMD, and NVIDIA.
Its advanced manufacturing processes have been delayed repeatedly, with the 7nm process missing deadlines and the 5nm process even slower, leading to customer losses.
Apple no longer uses its chips, and major clients like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are increasingly turning to other suppliers.
To make matters worse, the overall PC market has shrunk, and more than half of Intel’s revenue still comes from this traditional business. Meanwhile, the entire semiconductor industry has experienced severe fluctuations. From 2022 to 2023, global chip inventories were high, demand was weak, and prices plummeted.
Many companies laid off workers, cut projects, and closed factories.
Intel was no exception, suffering consecutive losses, with its stock price dropping to a 20-year low. However, things began to change quietly in the second half of 2024. First, the global PC market started to recover.
According to market research data, in the third quarter of 2024, global PC shipments increased by about 3% year-on-year, marking the first positive growth after eight consecutive quarters of decline.
Although the increase is modest, the signal is crucial, indicating that companies are beginning to update their equipment, and consumers are willing to buy new computers. Secondly, while the AI boom primarily benefits GPU manufacturers like NVIDIA, Intel has not completely fallen behind.
It launched its own AI chip series, Gaudi, which, although currently less powerful than NVIDIA’s, is significantly cheaper, attracting some cost-sensitive customers.
More importantly, Intel still has a solid base in the traditional data center CPU market, and these servers are gradually incorporating AI inference capabilities. Additionally, the US government’s CHIPS and Science Act is beginning to take effect. Intel has received billions of dollars in subsidies to build new factories in Arizona, Ohio, and New Mexico.
Although these factories will not bring profits in the short term, they at least alleviate its capital expenditure pressure and provide the market with certainty regarding policy support. Another easily overlooked factor is cost control.
Over the past two years, Intel has made significant layoffs, closed inefficient production lines, and paused non-core projects.
The financial report shows that operating expenses in the third quarter decreased by over 10% year-on-year. The money saved directly translated into profits. Therefore, this profit is not without foundation.
It is due to both an improved external environment and effective internal cost-cutting.
However, to say that a “full revival” has occurred is still premature. Why do I say this? Because Intel’s real challenges lie not in today, but in the next two to three years. Its core issue remains its manufacturing capability.
Currently, the most advanced consumer-grade chips have entered the 2nm node or even smaller. TSMC and Samsung have already begun mass production of 3nm chips, with 2nm expected to enter trial production by the end of 2025.
Intel’s “Intel 18A” (equivalent to 1.8nm) will not begin risk trial production until the first half of 2025, and large-scale commercial use may have to wait until 2026. This means that for at least the next year, Intel will still lag behind in advanced manufacturing processes.
And customers, especially high-end clients, will not wait for it.
Companies like Apple, Qualcomm, and NVIDIA have already awarded their orders for the next few years to TSMC.
For Intel to regain these orders, simply relying on subsidies and price cuts is not enough; it must deliver truly competitive products. Furthermore, while the AI chip market is bustling, the competitive landscape has already begun to take shape. NVIDIA occupies over 80% of the training chip market, with AMD closely following, and even Google and Amazon have started developing their own chips.
Intel’s Gaudi currently has a market share of less than 5%, making it difficult to shake up the leading players in the short term. What it can do is capture some niche markets, such as small and medium-sized enterprises and local AI inference scenarios. Therefore, Intel’s “warming up” is more like a successful stop-loss rather than a full recovery. Returning to the initial question: is it still worth buying Intel stock now? There is no standard answer, but we can break it down. If you are a long-term investor who believes in the return of US manufacturing and Intel’s ability to rebuild its manufacturing capacity with government support, then the current price may not be considered expensive.
After all, although the stock price has risen by 90%, it still has a significant gap compared to its peak in 2021.
Moreover, if its 18A process can indeed be mass-produced as scheduled in 2026, it may usher in a new round of valuation increases. However, if you are a short-term trader looking to ride the wave of post-earnings excitement, you need to be cautious. The US stock market is currently in a busy earnings season, with significant volatility.
Today Intel is up, but tomorrow another company might face a downturn.
Additionally, the market’s expectations for “turning a profit” have already been partially fulfilled, and if there are no unexpected performances in the future, the stock price is likely to correct. More importantly, the entire US stock market is also unstable. Look at today’s data: the Dow Jones is up 0.79%, the Nasdaq is up 0.96%, and the S&P 500 is up 0.73%.
On the surface, everything looks rosy, but behind it, investors are jumping around during the “earnings season”.
Any company that slightly misses expectations could see its stock price drop by 10% in a day. In this environment, chasing high prices carries significant risks. One more point to note: although Intel has risen by 90%, NVIDIA has risen by 150% and AMD by 120% during the same period.
This means that the entire semiconductor sector is rising, and Intel is merely keeping pace with the larger group, not standing out on its own.
If you are optimistic about the chip industry, diversifying your investments may be more prudent than betting on a single company. At this point, some may ask: how should ordinary retail investors participate in the US stock market? To be honest, for most people, directly buying individual stocks carries too much risk.
Especially for a company like Intel that is in a transitional phase, any variable related to technology direction, customer orders, or factory progress could impact the stock price.
A more realistic approach is to participate indirectly through ETFs (exchange-traded funds), which allows you to share in the industry’s benefits while diversifying individual stock risks. Of course, if you have a particular understanding of Intel and firmly believe it can return to its peak, that is another matter.
But please remember: investing is not voting; it is not enough to just “believe” to win. The market only recognizes results, not sentiments. Finally, let’s step back from Intel and look at the bigger picture. Why have so many tech companies recently exceeded earnings expectations?
Why has the PC market suddenly rebounded?
Why is AI investment still increasing? The answers may lie in the macroeconomics. By 2025, US inflation has significantly decreased, and the Federal Reserve is likely to stop raising interest rates, and may even lower them before the end of the year.
Once interest rates turn, tech stocks, especially those growth stocks that were previously suppressed by high rates, will regain valuation support. Companies will also be more willing to spend money to update IT equipment, and consumers will be more willing to take out loans to buy computers and upgrade their phones. In other words, Intel’s improvement is, to some extent, a reflection of the economic cycle hitting bottom and rebounding. But how long will this rebound last? No one knows.
After all, the global economy still faces many uncertainties:
geopolitics, energy prices, debt pressures… Any black swan could interrupt the recovery rhythm. Therefore, in the face of “good news” from Intel, we must see hope while also maintaining clarity.
It has indeed emerged from its darkest moment, but there is still a long way to go before it reaches true brightness. To summarize: Intel’s profitability in the third quarter is a fact, not hype.
The underlying reasons include the recovery of the PC market, effective cost control, and the implementation of policy support.
However, fundamental issues such as lagging manufacturing processes and intense AI competition remain unresolved.
The stock price has surged by 90% this year, reflecting some expectations, so caution is needed when chasing high prices.
Ordinary investors are better off participating in the semiconductor sector through ETFs rather than betting on individual stocks.
Given the current volatility in the US stock market, especially during earnings season, it is essential to control positions and not be swayed by short-term emotions. The most challenging aspect of investing is not understanding a company, but understanding oneself.
What do you really want?
How much risk can you tolerate?
Do you have enough patience?
The answers to these questions are more important than any financial report data. Intel’s story is not over yet.
It may rise again, or it may continue to struggle.
But for ordinary people like us, what matters is not betting on the right horse, but keeping our own boat steady amidst the waves.
It is late, and the US stock market is still trading; tomorrow is another day. May we all maintain our rationality and hope amidst the market’s fluctuations.
(End of article)