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Expectation difference is productivityγ
ββ Jingbei Yueguang
π₯ AI Market Weekly Review: Oracle (weekly increase of 24%/same below), NVIDIA/Microsoft/Google/META/Amazon all reached new highs after the April tariff war low; in the optical module sector, Tianfu Communication (+14%) and Zhongji Xuchuang (+13%) continue to confirm our high prosperity judgment for optical modules; in the PCB sector, Huidian Co., Ltd. (+10%) benefits from the ASIC catalysis of Google and META, continuously confirming our view that “North American computing power ASIC is the core direction of this AI sector.”
π₯ US-China Game: Ren Zhengfei vs. Jensen Huang, Huawei vs. NVIDIA. On June 10, 2025, the People’s Daily published an article on the front page titled “Dialogue with Ren Zhengfei,” where Ren Zhengfei stated: “We are still one generation behind the US in single-chip technology. We use mathematics to compensate for physics, non-Moore to supplement Moore, and group computing to supplement single-chip, achieving practical results. There is actually no need to worry about chip issues; using methods like superposition and clustering, the computational results can be comparable to the most advanced levels.” On June 14, 2025, Jensen Huang stated: “China’s technology is already good enough for China. If the US does not want to participate in the Chinese (market), Huawei can meet the demand of the Chinese market and can also cover all other regions.”
π₯ North American Computing Power: Oracle’s stock price hits a historical high. (1) Oracle guides a +50% growth in cloud revenue for FY2026 (24% for FY2025), with cloud infrastructure revenue growth of +70% (51% for FY2025). The company believes that AI prosperity is expected to continue into 2026 and beyond; Oracle expects capital expenditures for FY2026 to exceed $25 billion, exceeding market expectations by 20%. (2) On June 12, 2025, AMD held the Advancing AI 2025 conference, officially releasing the MI350 series GPU, with plans to launch the MI400 and MI500 series in 2026 and 2027. AMD expects the global AI accelerator market to exceed $500 billion by 2028.
π₯ ASIC acceleration is ramping up, and growth will accelerate in 2026. Major CSPs developing their own AI ASICs has become a trend: Google TPU, Amazon Trainium, META MTIA, Microsoft MAIA. Broadcom, as a global leader in AI ASICs, already has three mass production customers (Google/META/Byte) and four potential customers (OPENAI/Apple/SoftBank/xAI). Broadcom expects the AI ASIC chip market size to reach $60-90 billion in FY27.
π₯ Optical modules/CPO are the core configuration direction of this round of North American computing power. (1) We expect shipments of 800G optical modules to be 9-10 million/20 million/35-40 million in 2024/2025/2026, and shipments of 1.6T optical modules to be 2.5-3.5 million/9-10 million in 2025/2026. As CSPs gradually ramp up their self-developed ASICs, the optical module ratio in CSP self-built network systems will be greater than that of NVIDIA, and we are optimistic about the subsequent demand for optical modules. (2) On June 13, 2025, Dongshan Precision announced plans to acquire 100% of Solstice Optoelectronics for approximately 5.935 billion RMB.
π₯ Investment Advice: Focus on North American computing power and the ASIC industry chain.
1. Two leading companies in the sub-segment: Shenghong Technology, Xinyi Sheng.
2. Optical modules: Xinyi Sheng, Zhongji Xuchuang, Cambridge Technology, Huamao Technology, Dongshan Precision, etc.
3. PCB: Shenghong Technology, Huidian Co., Ltd., Shennan Circuit, Guanghe Technology, etc.
4. AEC: Ruikeda, etc.
5. DCI: Dekeli.
6. CPO: Taicheng Light, Shijia Photon, Zhishang Technology, Bochuang Technology, etc.
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article and any articles from the public account are for discussion purposes only and do not constitute any investment advice.