——As the tides of human civilization rise and fall, under the slanted moon over the river, two stars shine in Guazhou: Are Chinese chips surrounding the world? The digital era of the shield tunneling machine’s legend is being replayed.
“Under the slanted moon over the river, two stars shine in Guazhou” — the Jinling ferry, described by Tang dynasty poet Zhang Hu, was once a bustling place of merchant ships and fishing lights. A thousand years later, as the global semiconductor industry stands at the crossroads of technological revolution and geopolitical competition, Chinese chips are navigating a new course in the tides of human civilization with “mature processes” as their vessel. Is this a radical narrative of “surrounding the world,” or a rational replay of the shield tunneling machine’s legend in the digital age?
1. Technological Counterattack in the River of Civilization: Resonance from Shield Tunneling Machines to Chips
The sparks of Guazhou once illuminated the commercial legends of the ancient Silk Road; today, the “sparks” of Chinese chips ignite the flames of transformation in the global semiconductor supply chain. Twenty years ago, Chinese shield tunneling machines transitioned from reliance on imports to capturing two-thirds of the global market share through the path of “introduction – digestion – re-innovation,” completing a turnaround from “expensive equipment” to “king of cost-performance.”
Now, Chinese mature process chips are replicating this logic: taking silicon carbide wafers as an example, Wolfspeed’s 6-inch wafers were once sold for $1500, while Chinese suppliers have reduced the price to below $500, a drop of over 60%.
The Nikkei called it an “unimaginable price,” and international giants are filled with anxiety — reminiscent of the shock experienced by German shield tunneling machine manufacturers when facing Chinese competitors.
The underlying logic of this counterattack is highly consistent: seizing the market gap of “non-advanced but high-demand” products, achieving cost advantages through large-scale production, vertical integration, and technological breakthroughs. Shield tunneling machines need to overcome key technologies such as main bearings and hydraulic systems, while chips rely on advanced packaging, material innovations (such as improved yield of silicon carbide substrates), and full-chain collaboration (design-manufacturing-packaging).
The commonality between the two is that they both avoid the high barriers of “monopolistic” fields and instead attack the vast “strategic hinterland” that has been overlooked.
2. The Industrial Truth Behind the “Surrounding” Narrative: Disruption or Reconstruction?
The expression “Chinese chips surrounding the world” is more of a sentimental projection of competitive pressure by Western media. In fact, the rise of Chinese chips is not about “surrounding” anyone, but rather restructuring the competitive landscape of the global semiconductor supply chain with “mature processes” as the fulcrum.
• Demand-side transformation: Over 70% of global chip demand comes from mature process fields such as automotive electronics, industrial control, and the Internet of Things. The cost advantages of Chinese companies (for example, Sanan Optoelectronics’ silicon carbide wafer yield is close to international levels, with costs only 1/2 to 1/3 of overseas manufacturers) directly address the pain points in these fields — which have low performance requirements but are extremely sensitive.
• Supply-side response: International giants like TSMC and Intel are forced to adjust their strategies, increasing capacity for mature processes to cope with the impact; emerging market countries (such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East) are turning to Chinese chips to reduce supply chain costs.
• Ecological reconstruction: From design (such as Huawei HiSilicon), manufacturing (such as SMIC), to packaging (such as JCET), China has formed a complete mature process industry chain and achieved breakthroughs through a comprehensive advantage of “technology + cost + service.”
This reconstruction is not a simple “price war,” but a multi-dimensional resonance of technology, cost, market, and policy. Just as the legend of the shield tunneling machine ultimately triumphed through comprehensive advantages, the narrative of Chinese chips “surrounding” is, in fact, an inevitable return to industrial laws.
3. Challenges and Concerns in the Rise and Fall: Leap from “Quantitative Change” to “Qualitative Change”
However, the river of civilization has never flowed in one direction. If Chinese chips want to truly achieve a “shield tunneling machine-style” counterattack, they still need to overcome multiple challenges:
• Technical barriers: Although the threshold for mature process technology is lower than that for advanced processes, continuous innovation is still required for high-end packaging and special materials (such as silicon carbide);
• Patent risks: International giants may limit the market expansion of Chinese companies through patent litigation;
• Demand fluctuations: If a global economic recession leads to a decline in chip demand, price wars may evolve into industry-wide losses;
• Geopolitics: The U.S. technology blockade against China may affect access to key equipment (such as lithography machines).
These challenges remind us that while the “surrounding” narrative is eye-catching, a true industrial revolution requires a leap from “quantity” to “quality.” The future of Chinese chips lies not in “surrounding” anyone, but in whether they can achieve a leap from “cost advantage” to “value advantage” through technological innovation and ecological construction.
4. Conclusion: The New Sparks Under the Slanted Moon Over the River
“As the tides of human civilization rise and fall, under the slanted moon over the river, two stars shine in Guazhou” — this is not only the artistic conception of poetry but also a metaphor for technological revolution.
As Chinese chips navigate a new course in the semiconductor industry with “mature processes” as their vessel, they carry not only the logic of commercial competition but also the deep pursuit of human civilization for technological inclusiveness and industrial co-prosperity.
The ultimate revelation of the shield tunneling machine legend has never been about “defeating opponents,” but about sharing the fruits of development through technological breakthroughs and cost optimization.
If today’s Chinese chips can continue this spirit, then the “sparks” they ignite will surely illuminate a new future for the global semiconductor industry —
not “surrounding,” but “coexistence”; not “monopolizing,” but “co-prosperity.”
This, perhaps, is the most moving spark in the river of civilization.
——
Yes, the legend of the shield tunneling machine is being replayed.
Dongshuo Xishuo was originally published in Beijing
Only thoughts shine forever
Heaven and earth point to all things
Looking up at the stars, looking forward to tomorrow