(The following is for past case studies only / Investment involves risks / Caution is advised when entering the market)
The most certain main line in the A-share market this week is not storage chips, but the full-scale expansion around NVIDIA’s supply chain. Covering everything from CPO to PCB, from liquid cooling to AI power supplies, the sector rotation is as precise as a dance. Here, we break down the key factors and underlying logic of ‘keeping in rhythm.’
1. Timeline
The market began to unfold gradually from October 20, with the core path as follows:
1. CPO Leads (October 20)
Leading optical module companies such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Yuanjie Technology were the first to start, driving the sector to reach its peak on October 28. The core logic: NVIDIA’s Rubin architecture will increase the penetration rate of 1.6T optical modules from 10% in 2025 to 50% in 2027.— 10-20 bidding: CPO recovery, Zhongji Xuchuang to Yuanjie Technology, reportedly large orders;
2. PCB Rotation (October 22-28)
Equipment side leads: PCB equipment manufacturers like 20CM hit the limit up, with main board targets rising continuously on the 28th. Material side erupts: HDI boards (Shenghong Technology), electronic fabrics (Honghe Technology), copper foil (Tongguan Copper Foil), etc., due to the surge in demand for M9-grade copper-clad laminates driven by the Rubin architecture, show a continuous board trend.— 10-22 early thoughts: Can the well-performing Honghe Technology stabilize and gradually rise above the strong line;— 10-22 opening: Currently, PCB equipment and copper foil are moving, Longyang Electronics to Dingtai Gaoke, tracking it;— 10-28 opening: Electronic fabric, finally Honghe Technology, stands above the strong line;— 10-29 bidding: Copper foil to watch: Tongguan Copper Foil to Defu Technology;
3. Liquid Cooling and AI Power Supply Wrap-up (October 29)
Chunzhong Technology in the liquid cooling field and Sifang Co., Ltd. in the power supply field started on the same day. The Rubin architecture brings an increase in computing power density, which raises higher requirements for heat dissipation, with the penetration rate of liquid cooling expected to jump from 10% to 40%.— 10-16 bidding: AI power supply, Jingquan Technology, whether it is T-shaped, and see if Sifang Co., Ltd. and Jinpan Technology can further strengthen;— 10-29 bidding: Liquid cooling weak to strong: Can Kangsheng Co., Ltd. be T-shaped, and watch Chunzhong Technology;
4. Driving Logic
— Key hint: The rhythm is driven by a combination of performance realization and event-driven factors.— Q3 report verification: From ‘expectation gap’ to ‘real performance’ gradually being realized.— GTC conference catalyst: Details and technical routes of the Rubin architecture (PCB, heat dissipation, optical modules) gradually become clear.
2. Rubin Architecture
The next-generation Rubin architecture (mass production in 2026) nurtures new opportunities:—M9 Copper-Clad Laminate: Solving PCB thermal deformation and signal loss, materials like hydrocarbon resin and phenolic quartz fabric will directly benefit—Drilling Needle Consumables: The increase in hardness of M9 materials leads to a surge in drilling needle consumption, with prices rising simultaneously—Connection Innovation: Gradually eliminating cables, promoting PCB direct connections, high-end connector manufacturers will see incremental growth
3. Core: Accumulation Effect
Why can we accurately capture each wave of the market? The core lies in the accumulation effect:—Target Selection: CPO and PCB targets that were speculated between June and August are easier to capture as technical buying points during the October rebound;—Long-term Value: The AI hardware market spans from 2023 to 2025, with further realization space ahead;— Case: After the first wave of the market in 2023, Zhongji Xuchuang is expected to increase profits by 18 billion yuan in 2025 due to the 1.6T optical module, confirming that ‘diligent efforts often bring multiple rounds of returns.’
The dance of NVIDIA’s supply chain is not over yet. The seeds sown in 2023 will bear their first fruits in 2025, and the mass production of the Rubin architecture and the explosion of AI applications will make the harvest in 2026 even more abundant. Accumulating knowledge in mainline investments is more sustainable than chasing short-term speculative funds.
If you wish, we can further refine a specific aspect (such as PCB material technology breakdown, the specific impact of liquid cooling solutions on profits), feel free to comment.
(The above is for past case studies only / Investment involves risks / Caution is advised when entering the market)