Yesterday, we broke through 4000 points, congratulations to everyone for making the correct prediction.
So, what comes next?
First, let’s discuss the differences between this time and the previous two times.
1. The market is larger, and valuations are more realistic: The number of A-share companies is nearly double that of 2015, with a total market value exceeding 120 trillion yuan (about 58 trillion yuan in 2015), but the overall “price-performance ratio” is higher—current average valuations are lower than in 2015 and below the average level of the past decade, indicating that the market is not inflated.
2. The upward trend is more stable and not reliant on “borrowed money for stock trading”: In 2015, many people borrowed money to invest in stocks, using leverage to push up the index, which posed significant risks; this time, the proportion of “borrowed money for stock trading” is noticeably lower, with the market primarily driven by policy support and actual improvements in corporate operations (fundamentals), making it more solid.
3. The main capital players have changed, and the market is more stable: Previously, A-shares were mostly traded by retail investors following trends, leading to high volatility; now, institutional investors (such as funds and insurance capital) have doubled their shareholding ratio, and foreign capital continues to buy, with these “long-term funds” not easily chasing highs or cutting losses, acting as a “stabilizer” for the market.
4. The leading industries are significantly different: In 2015, traditional industries like infrastructure, steel, and real estate led the rise; this time, industries representing “new technology and new production capacity” such as chips, AI, and biomedicine are at the forefront, aligning with the current direction of industrial development.
5. Policies and regulations are more refined: There are now registration systems and new “National Nine Articles” policies that help quality enterprises list better and provide stronger protection for investors, laying a better foundation for the long-term healthy development of the market.
The above is the answer provided by Doubao, and I think the fourth point is just filler; infrastructure and real estate were also leading industries back then, but I agree with the other points.
Therefore, yesterday’s slight dip is more of a “minor episode” in the upward trend, as 4000 points is widely recognized as a profit-taking line, with some getting off the bus and others getting on, each with their own logic, which time will validate.
Little Tian belongs to those who got off early, switched to a new batch of stocks, and then got back on.
Because Little Tian focuses on industry trends and individual stock logic.
Moreover, they insist on high selling and low buying to make waves.
So most of them made profits and left, with two stocks making profits twice.
I’m not saying this to boast about how great I am; rather, Little Tian is a very cautious person, not greedy, and knows when to take profits.
If I had to find a merit, it would be the firm belief in their own logic, the courage to buy low, and the ability to cut losses promptly and decisively.
So they may not become wealthy overnight, but their drawdowns are controllable, leading to steady happiness.
Regarding holding stocks, I want to share a little tip: when buying, I definitely buy at the bottom of the trend, and once there is an increase, I will sell some to thicken the profit cushion. This approach not only pleases myself but also mainly increases my confidence in holding stocks.
The only regret is the innovative drugs in my hands; I didn’t sell when I was making money, and now I’ve given back a lot. I’ve held on for quite a long time, and I have feelings for them. The most I feel is unwillingness, which is like marriage; the longer it lasts, the harder it is to let go.
Yesterday, I didn’t open a position; I just traded a few of my existing stocks and found a new thing afterward: the OCS optical switch.
The OCS industry chain refers to the upstream and downstream industrial ecosystem formed around the Optical Circuit Switch (OCS), mainly including upstream optical components/modules, midstream OCS systems, and downstream data centers/computing power service providers.
The following information is compiled from the internet:
In the OCS industry chain, different segments have different leading companies:
Complete Machines and System Integration
1. Zhongji Xuchuang: A global leader in optical modules, the exclusive OEM for Google’s OCS switch, with its 1.6T optical module certified by NVIDIA, and OCS-related revenue expected to exceed 2 billion yuan by 2025.
2. Guangxun Technology: The only domestic manufacturer to achieve mass production of MEMS-OCS, having launched a 192×192 port all-optical switch, becoming a core supplier for Huawei’s TPU v5 cluster, with an OCS product line gross margin of 52%.
3. Dekeli: Deeply bound to Google’s OCS technology route, one of the few domestic companies capable of OCS system R&D, has launched microsecond/nanosecond-level OCS prototypes, supporting 128×128 port scale, with optical path switching delay of less than 1μs, and received a multi-million yuan order from Google’s supply chain in 2024.
Core Optical Devices
1. Tengjing Technology: Supplies high-precision optical components for Google’s OCS switch, such as refractive prisms and collimating lenses, with precision reaching the nanometer level, and is a leading global producer of yttrium vanadate crystals, with a market share of 60% for WSS filters.
2. Guangku Technology: Global market share of 41.6% for thin-film lithium niobate modulators, which are core devices for OCS multi-wavelength transmission. The company entered Google’s OCS OEM chain through the acquisition of Wuhan Jiepai.
3. Juguang Technology: High technical barriers for OCS optical path modules, the company has supplied to NVIDIA’s AI computing power chain, with its optical path modules having a high integration level, only one-third the size of traditional solutions, and related revenue expected to exceed 100 million yuan by 2025.
Chips and Materials
1. Saiwei Electronics: A global leader in MEMS foundry, MEMS-OCS devices have passed customer verification, supplying MEMS chips for Google’s OCS solution, with a MEMS mirror yield of 95%. The first domestic 8-inch MEMS production line has been put into operation, and after capacity release, it will undertake more OCS orders.
2. Yueling Co., Ltd.: Holds shares in Zhongshi Guangxin, laying out indium phosphide (InP) optical chips. Zhongshi Guangxin is one of the few domestic companies capable of mass production of InP chips, with product performance reaching international first-tier levels, and has established cooperation with Lumentum.
The above information is compiled from the internet and does not constitute investment advice!
Let’s discuss more in the comments section, with pictures attached.
The above views are for reference only; trading based on them is at your own risk.