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Please support the market by clicking the bottom: Like, Share, CommentAuthor | Bian Huizong
The anti-dumping investigation on American-made analog chips has led to a strong opening in the analog semiconductor market, but the demand for funds is not high. A strong opening in semiconductors is likely to be met with selling pressure, which is closely related to the chip structure. However, the recovery of the industry is also a reality, especially in a bull market, where the beta that should be given must still be given.With this anti-dumping measure, the semiconductor industry has entered a period of resonance among three major factors:AIchip explosion+price increase in storage+expansion of domestic (analog) market share.
In terms of analog semiconductors, the United States is the largest producer of related analog chips globally, accounting for more than half of the total global capacity. From an industrial perspective, it is essential to pay attention to the turning point signals of this core variable in the industry. The advancement of anti-dumping measures is expected to relieve the competitive pressure on analog manufacturers,with estimates suggesting that the anti-dumping measures could expand the domestic market by over200%+.
The reversal of the analog market has been confirmed, ADI and TI have turned positive after 7-9 quarters of revenue decline.Domestic analog companies25Q2 have shown a quarter-on-quarter growth rate better than the year-on-year growth situation, indicating a recovery in demand in the industrial and photovoltaic sectors.AI will gradually drive the demand for analog, particularly in multi-phase power management chips. Companies like SiRuipu【case from last year’s conference】/NaXinWei/JieHuaTe, which have acquisitions and consolidations, have shown relatively fast revenue growth in25H1.Analog semiconductors are a crucial area for mergers and acquisitions, with JieHuaTe planning to acquire New Port Coast, which specializes in clock chips, and BiYiWei planning to acquire XingGan Semiconductor, which specializes in sensor chips. NanXin plans to issue convertible bonds to invest in multi-phase power andDrMOS and other intelligent computing power supply chip products. In terms of pricing, domestic prices remain stable, but TI initiated a new round of price increases in August, with increases exceeding 6 months, focusing on signal chain products, where some core categories like ADC (Analog-to-Digital Converters) and operational amplifiers have seen price increases exceeding 100%, far exceeding market expectations.
In terms of storage, the recovery of storage prices is quite prominent, with a supply gap in niche storage leading to a moderate increase inNOR/SLC NAND. Moreover, the price increase window for mainstream products has opened, following SanDisk’s price increase forNAND, and Micron has paused the price protection forDDR4/5 memory, with market expectations for subsequent increases of20%~30%. According to the price increase trends in storage, this round of price increase may continue to strengthen.In terms of performance, domestic module manufacturers25Q2 have shown significant improvements in revenue and profitability,25H2 with domestic storage modules and niche storage performance expected to improve. The companies with high storage prosperity are in the enterprise sector, such as enterprise-levelSSD from DeMingLi【learning while doing】 recently leading the charge. In terms of storage production lines,September5th saw the establishment of Yangtze Memory Technologies (Phase III), indicating that expansion is expected by2026.
In terms of advanced processes, expansion is key to ensuring the supply of domesticAI chips. On the supply side,SMIC 25Q2 capacity utilization rate is92.5%, up+2.9pcts quarter-on-quarter, with the12 inch capacity utilization rate remaining robust, and the8 inch capacity utilization rate continuing to recover; Huahong’s25Q2 utilization rate is102.7%, further increasing by5.6pcts on a full load basis; domestic capital expenditure is increasingly focused on advanced processes, with expansion of advanced production lines expected to accelerate in2026.ASIC custom chips, which are in high demand, have optimistic orders from ChipOne and Aowei.
Disclaimer: The content of this article represents the author’s personal views, for communication and learning purposes only, and should not be considered as operational advice. The stock market has risks, and investment should be cautious; please take risks at your own discretion!
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