Semiconductors/Computing Power: Supply Concerns Alleviated + Strengthened Certainty in Optical Module Performance

1. Semiconductors/Computing Power: Supply Concerns Alleviated + Strengthened Certainty in Optical Module Performance

Core Logic

1. NVIDIA’s Clarification Boosts Confidence: NVIDIA has clearly stated that the H100/H200 chips have “sufficient supply,” alleviating market concerns about computing power bottlenecks and restoring sentiment in the CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) sector.
2. Surge in Optical Module Demand:

• Google OCS All-Optical Switching

• New demand for 4.5 million 1.6T optical modules (by 2026), second only to NVIDIA’s 5 million, driving the ramp-up of high-speed optical modules.
• Accelerated Technological Iteration Core components such as CW lasers and optical engines are showing performance elasticity, with breakthroughs from Tianfu Communication and NewEase driving valuation reshaping.

3. Capital Focus on Leaders Zhongji Xuchuang’s daily trading volume reached 28.7 billion (the highest in A-shares), with its market value jumping to second in the ChiNext, confirming the logic of “performance certainty + global market share.”Core Beneficiary Companies

• Optical Module LeadersZhongji Xuchuang (1.6T technology leader, core supplier to Google),NewEase (breakthrough in LPO solutions),Tianfu Communication (CPO optical engine market share exceeds 50%).
• Equipment/MaterialsYuanjie Technology (net buying of 251 million from institutions, domestic substitution of optical chips),Tengjing Technology (precision optical components catching up).

2. Energy Storage: Supply-Demand Reversal + High Margins Overseas Driving Valuation Recovery

Core Logic

1. Supply-Demand Structure Reversal

Energy storage cells have shifted from “overcapacity” to “price increases for production scheduling,” with CATL’s orders surging and production lines running at full capacity, reflecting global energy storage demand exceeding expectations.2. Overseas Market Dividends

• China’s energy storage lithium battery global market share is 90%, with upstream lithium prices at low levels, and overseas orders achieving gross margins of over 35%+ (e.g., explosive demand for household storage in Europe).
• Policy Catalysis: The ratio of renewable energy storage in Europe and the US is set to increase to 30% (new regulations by 2025).

3. Smooth Transmission in the Industry Chain Inverters (Sungrow Power) and system integration (Haibosi Chuang) lead the charge, with the sector’s catch-up being sustainable rather than a short-term high-low switch.

Core Beneficiary Companies

• Battery LeadersCATL (40% global share in energy storage cells, orders scheduled until Q1 2026),Yiwei Lithium Energy (80% increase in large storage system deliveries quarter-on-quarter).
• Inverters/IntegrationSungrow Power (ChiNext heavyweight, household storage business growth of 150%),Shangneng Electric (first in market share for centralized inverters).
• Material ElasticityDefang Nano (lithium iron phosphate cathode overseas certification approved).

💎 3. Precious Metals/Minor Metals: Safe-Haven Demand + Industrial Metals Catch-Up

Core Logic

1. Interest Rate Cut Cycle + Safe-Haven Dual Drivers

• COMEX gold has surpassed $3600/ounce (a historical high), with Shanghai gold stabilizing at 800 yuan/gram, and the probability of a Fed rate cut in September rising to 85%.
• Geopolitical risks (Middle East conflicts) catalyze capital inflow into gold ETFs (gold fund ETF trading volume increased by 617% month-on-month).

Industrial Metal Demand Rebounds

• LME copper has returned to $10,000/ton, primarily due to the rebound in global manufacturing PMI (China’s August PMI at 51.2), with demand for copper and aluminum driven by investments in new energy vehicles and power grids.

Minor Metal Differentiation

Rare earths, tungsten, and other previously high-performing varieties are correcting (Zhangyuan Tungsten Industry hit the limit down), but tungsten concentrate prices have risen 50% this year, supporting mid-term logic.

Core Beneficiary Companies

• Precious Metals

Western Gold (3 consecutive boards, resource reserves increase by 20% annually),Zijin Mining (copper-gold resonance, first in Hong Kong Stock Connect trading volume).

• Industrial MetalsLuoyang Molybdenum (copper-cobalt resources, Tesla battery supplier),Yunnan Aluminum (expansion of green electricity aluminum production capacity).
• Minor Metal ElasticityXianglu Tungsten Industry (smooth transmission of price increases for tungsten carbide powder, net profit +123%).

4. Innovative Drugs: BD Expansion Overseas + Academic Conferences Catalyze

Core Logic

1. Accelerated License-Out

In the first seven months before 2025, the amount of innovative drugs going overseas reached $80 billion (up 160% year-on-year), with BeiGene and Hengrui Medicine breaking records in BD transaction prices.2. Event-Driven Density

• World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC) will be held on September 6, with data on Kelun Pharmaceutical’s PD-L1/TGFβ dual antibody and Bai Li Tianheng’s ADC therapy to be announced soon.
• Medical Insurance Negotiations will start in September, with CAR-T therapy entering the preliminary review list, breaking the ice on the payment side (e.g., Fosun Kite’s Akiyuki injection).

3. Capital Concentration on Leaders Bai Li Tianheng continues to hit new highs, with CXO (WuXi AppTec) receiving a net inflow of 1.062 billion, reflecting the reconstruction of the innovative drug valuation system.

Core Beneficiary Companies

• Big PharmaHengrui Medicine (GLP-1 dual-target weight loss drug application accepted),BeiGene (over 60% of Zebutini’s overseas sales).
• BiotechBai Li Tianheng (potential for overseas authorization of HER3/EGFR dual antibody ADC),Kelun Pharmaceutical (ADC platform authorized to Merck).
• CXOWuXi AppTec (global capacity + long-tail customer stickiness),Chengdu Xian Dao (DNA encoded library technology catch-up).

📊 Summary of Major Capital Movements

Direction	Main Logic	Core Targets	Risk Warning
Optical Modules	Performance certainty + 1.6T incremental demand	Zhongji Xuchuang/NewEase	Technical route iteration risk
Energy Storage	Supply-demand reversal + high margins overseas	CATL/Sungrow Power	Raw material price rebound squeezing profits
Gold	Interest rate cuts + strengthened safe-haven demand	Zijin Mining	US inflation repeatedly suppressing gold prices
Innovative Drugs	BD expansion overseas + medical insurance negotiations catalyzing	Bai Li Tianheng	Clinical data falling short of expectations

⚠️ Short-Term Warnings and Opportunities

1. Differentiation in Computing Hardware

Optical modules (Zhongji Xuchuang) remain strong, but liquid cooling (Invec) and PCB (Jingwang Electronics) need to be cautious of technical breakdown risks.

1. Minor Metals Await Stabilization Profit-taking in rare earths and tungsten sectors needs to be digested, with attention on whether China’s rare earths can stabilize above the 50-day moving average.
2. High-Low Switching in Innovative Drugs CXO catch-up (Chengdu Xian Dao) sustainability is questionable, prioritize layout of leaders Hengrui and BeiGene.

Strategy Recommendations:

• Offensive Direction Optical modules (Zhongji Xuchuang), energy storage (CATL), innovative drugs (Bai Li Tianheng);
• Defensive Allocation Gold (Zijin Mining), industrial metals (Luoyang Molybdenum);
• Avoid Areas High-position minor metals, technical breakdown in computing segments.