The recent surge in PCB stocks, led by Shenghong Technology, has marked the completion of its tenfold journey.In fact, I have been closely following PCBs since last year, around June. As I mentioned before, my focus was primarily on fundamental analysis, and I was confident in the direction of high-level AI boards. I chose companies like Pegatron, Shunyi Electronics, and Dongshan Precision, but I never paid much attention to Shenghong Technology. Initially, I made some small profits with Pegatron, but by around August and September, I had lost most of it. This time, I managed to make a little money thanks to Shenghong Technology and Shunyi Electronics.So, from my optimistic view of PCBs to Shenghong Technology’s tenfold increase in a year, I only made enough for a meal.Let me share some insights from my recent research on low-cost buying strategies in just a few sentences.First, as a PhD often says, historical K-lines are the best teachers. Another saying is that if you want to understand fish, you should observe them rather than search for a pile of materials in the library. I would add that if you want to understand sharks, observe sharks; if you want to understand sardines, observe sardines. The different objects of observation will yield significantly different results. Back to the market, if you want to observe Shenghong Technology, as well as previous stocks like Luxshare Precision, CATL, and Zhongji Xuchuang, you should study them. If you are researching speculative stocks or lagging stocks, then focus on those. For instance, in the case of Shenghong Technology, we need to analyze why it outperformed Shunyi Electronics, Pegatron, or Dongshan Precision and achieved a tenfold increase ahead of them. Haha. This highlights the importance of stock selection.Secondly, another saying goes that the recognition of victory or defeat in a war occurs just before the war ends. I used to not understand this at all, getting caught up in rigid forms of adjustment, which led to constant mismatches. Different types of stocks have different adjustment patterns. This led me to explore low-cost buying strategies, which has been quite painful. As of now, I have given back all my profits this year and even incurred some losses; it feels like I have bitten into a mouthful of fur. However, through studying history, I suddenly gained clarity. Low-cost buying is not just a strategy; it is a higher-dimensional grasp of a market trend. The essence of low-cost buying is recognizing victory or defeat in a war just before it ends.Thus, my previous RPS industry screening, fundamental stock selection, pivot buying points, secondary buying points, and current low-cost buying points have all come together to form a closed loop that verifies, promotes, and complements each other.Today, I will analyze why Shenghong Technology is stronger than other PCBs. Of course, this is hindsight analysis, just for entertainment. Note: The following characteristics are not sufficient or necessary conditions; they just provide additional dimensions.
Now, let’s talk about the tenfold journey of Tongce Medical in 2020. Why it was them (I won’t discuss the industry and fundamentals; you need to read that yourself and combine it with individual stock trends to at least target a smaller range).
Returning to humanoid robots and semiconductors,humanoid robots have already shown characteristics of a leading stock. There is no need to wait for new lows; they could start to rebound at any time. However, if several leading stocks continue to hit new lows, we will have to wait.
Historical references are as follows
In the semiconductor sector, if we assume that Emperor Wu of Han is the leading stock, then I will mark his approximate position. Historically, leading stocks have significantly underperformed the index; either they are genuinely failing, like Pegatron in the previous PCB context, or they are accelerating towards the bottom. Which one it is remains unknown.
Best wishes.By the way, don’t chase PCBs; they could crash at any moment.