Silicon Carbide: A New Semiconductor Power or Just Capital Speculation?
In the arena of semiconductor materials, silicon carbide (SiC) is emerging rapidly, seen as a key player that could reshape the landscape of new energy, semiconductors, and military industries. However, beneath this wave of enthusiasm, is it a technological breakthrough that will bring about industrial transformation, or merely a gimmick for short-term capital market speculation? Next, we will delve into the true nature of silicon carbide.
1. Core Performance: Breaking Conventional Material Barriers
The performance advantages of silicon carbide are remarkable. Its thermal conductivity far exceeds that of silicon materials, with a thermal conductivity rate over three times that of silicon, reaching values of 220-490 W/m·K. Even in high-temperature environments above 600°C, it can maintain stable operation, making it stand out in high-power thermal management scenarios. In high-frequency and high-voltage applications, silicon carbide has a breakdown electric field strength of up to 3.3×10⁶ V/cm, supporting 800V high-voltage platforms. When used in fast-charging systems for electric vehicles, it can reduce energy consumption by 5-10% while increasing vehicle range by 8%. Moreover, the switching losses of silicon carbide devices are 80% lower than those of silicon-based devices, allowing inverter efficiency to exceed 99%, significantly enhancing energy conversion effectiveness.
With these outstanding performances, silicon carbide has found vast application space in military and new energy vehicle fields. In the military sector, after upgrading the radar of the J-20 with silicon carbide substrate T/R components, the theoretical detection range increased from the original 300-400 kilometers to 600-1000 kilometers. Although the actual feasibility of the thousand-kilometer detection data is debated due to the curvature of the Earth, it is undeniable that its performance has achieved a generational leap, forming a clear advantage. In the new energy vehicle sector, replacing traditional IGBT modules with silicon carbide modules can reduce the size of motor controllers by 50% while alleviating thermal pressure. For instance, the Changan Qiyuan A06, equipped with an 800V silicon carbide platform and 6C fast-charging technology, achieves a fast-charging effect of “2 seconds to charge 1 kilometer,” allowing for a 315-kilometer range to be replenished in just 10 minutes; the Zhiji LS6 extended version, equipped with a 66-degree large-capacity battery, boasts a pure electric range of 450 kilometers, with a comprehensive range exceeding 1500 kilometers.
2. Industry Chain Dynamics: Global Competition and the Rise of Domestic Players
As a leading company in the semiconductor industry, NVIDIA is actively promoting innovations in silicon carbide technology. The company plans to replace the silicon interlayer in AI chips (such as the Rubin processor) with silicon carbide substrates by 2027 to address chip thermal management issues. Meanwhile, TSMC is also collaborating with equipment manufacturers to develop 12-inch silicon carbide mass production processes. In response to this trend, domestic companies are quickly responding; Sanan Optoelectronics has sent silicon carbide substrate samples to TSMC for testing, while Tianyue Advanced has launched the world’s first 12-inch silicon carbide substrate, with orders exceeding 1.3 billion yuan.
In the construction of the domestic silicon carbide supply chain, significant progress has been made by local companies. In the substrate production segment, Tianyue Advanced, Luxshare Precision, and Jingcheng Machinery have become core players, with Tianyue Advanced achieving a global market share of 22.8%, and Jingcheng Machinery’s silicon carbide equipment market share reaching as high as 60%. In the device packaging field, SIDA Semiconductor’s automotive-grade silicon carbide modules have been supplied to mainstream automakers like NIO and Xpeng, while the silicon carbide MOSFET developed by Times Electric has reached a globally leading level in on-resistance metrics. In terms of equipment manufacturing, North Huachuang’s crystal growth furnaces and High Measurement’s slicing machines are accelerating localization, and Shandong University has successfully overcome technical challenges to achieve mass production of high-purity silicon carbide single crystals.
Globally, international manufacturers such as STMicroelectronics, ON Semiconductor, and Infineon are investing heavily in building new 8-inch silicon carbide factories. Domestic companies like ChipLink Integrated and Nansha Wafer are also striving to catch up in the 8-inch silicon carbide wafer manufacturing field. The mass production of 8-inch silicon carbide wafers will lay the foundation for the large-scale application of silicon carbide products. Notably, breakthroughs have also been made in the research and development of 12-inch silicon carbide substrates in China, with Tianyue Advanced and Shanxi ShuoKe Crystal Co., Ltd. successively releasing 12-inch silicon carbide substrate products.
3. Market Trends: Opportunities and Risks Under Capital Pursuit
Influenced by NVIDIA’s silicon carbide technology roadmap, silicon carbide concept stocks in the A-share market have seen a surge. On September 5, stocks like Tianyue Advanced, Luxshare Precision, and Jingcheng Machinery led the gains, with the silicon carbide sector index rising by 5.76% in a single day. The industry generally believes that substrates, equipment, and devices are the three core segments of the silicon carbide industry chain, with companies like Tianyue Advanced, Sanan Optoelectronics, Jingcheng Machinery, North Huachuang, SIDA Semiconductor, and Yangjie Technology being core targets in the industry chain.
From a long-term development perspective, the increasing penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the gradual increase in the proportion of silicon carbide devices in photovoltaic inverters, and the surging demand for semi-insulating silicon carbide substrates in 5G base stations will all provide sustained growth momentum for the silicon carbide market. According to market research firm Yole, by 2029, the market size of silicon carbide power devices is expected to reach $10 billion, with an average annual compound growth rate of 25% from 2023 to 2029.
However, the development of the silicon carbide industry is not without risks. On the technical side, the production yield of silicon carbide is still lower than that of silicon-based materials, with the current yield of silicon carbide at about 65%, while silicon-based materials can achieve yields of up to 95%. This yield gap may lead to slower-than-expected mass production progress for silicon carbide. On the capital side, some silicon carbide concept stocks are overvalued, with price-to-earnings ratios exceeding 100 times. For example, Luxshare Precision’s stock price may face valuation adjustment risks if the order fulfillment situation does not meet expectations.
4. Controversies and Challenges: Technical Barriers and Real-World Tests
In the military application field, while the significant increase in theoretical detection range of the J-20 radar using silicon carbide substrate T/R components is certainly noteworthy, the authenticity of the thousand-kilometer detection data is questioned due to the constraints of the Earth’s curvature, raising industry debates about the practical value of this technology. In terms of technical processes, the cutting yield of silicon carbide substrates is only 50%, and the mass production plan for 12-inch silicon carbide wafers has been postponed to 2026, indicating that these technical bottlenecks still require collective breakthroughs from the industry.
Undoubtedly, silicon carbide is a semiconductor material with immense development potential, and its technological advantages have already demonstrated transformative power in multiple fields. However, transitioning from laboratory technological achievements to becoming a core material for industrial development, silicon carbide still needs to overcome numerous obstacles. The year 2027 will be a critical window for the development of the silicon carbide industry, and whether Chinese companies can achieve full supply chain autonomy during this period will directly impact the global landscape of the silicon carbide industry. Whether silicon carbide will ultimately become a leader in the semiconductor materials field or gradually fade away as a mere capital speculation remains to be seen.