The calculation of import tariffs on chips is based on wafer fabrication, and the reasoning is simple: it is to avoid increasing our costs due to countermeasures against the United States. As for the impact of wafer fabrication regulations on the chip capabilities of the U.S., it does not have much effect from the production chain perspective.
Based on the projected amount of integrated circuit products imported from the United States to China in 2024, which is 83.67 billion RMB (approximately 11.8 billion USD), we can analyze the situation. Since most of the U.S. Fabless and IDM companies have their factories located outside the U.S., the chips imported from the U.S. are primarily fabricated outside the U.S. Some manufacturers, like Intel and Texas Instruments, have wafer fabs located in the U.S., and their related products may be affected, such as most of Intel’s CPU and GPU products, and the vast majority of analog chip products from Texas Instruments and ADI. Assuming that the affected chips account for 20% (this is hypothetical data), the value of potentially affected chips would be approximately 83.67 billion × 20% ≈ 16.734 billion RMB, or about 2.36 billion USD. The remaining approximately 66.936 billion RMB (about 9.44 billion USD) worth of chips, which are fabricated outside the U.S., may not be affected by the increased tariffs. This is quite favorable, as the starting point for decision-making is to avoid increasing our costs.
Of course, the actual situation will also be influenced by changes in U.S. export control policies, the global supply and demand relationship in the chip market, and various other factors.