The Global Chip Industry Faces an ‘ID Revolution’: New Rules for Wafer Origin Certification Reshape the Industry Landscape

Rule Rewrite: The Battle for a Chip’s ‘Birth Certificate’

The new origin rules released by the China Semiconductor Industry Association on April 11 are like a deep-water bomb dropped into a calm lake—integrated circuit origin certification is shifting from ‘label tracing’ to ‘wafer origin certification’. This seemingly technical adjustment is triggering an ‘ID revolution’ in the global semiconductor supply chain: Analog chips fabricated in the U.S. by Texas Instruments will be forced to wear a ‘Made in America’ label, while 14nm chips fabricated at SMIC’s Shenzhen factory will automatically gain ‘Made in China’ status.

This transformation exposes three fatal cracks:

1. 1. Tariff Domino Effect: Overseas foundry chips using more than 5% U.S. equipment may see tariff costs surge by 30%, directly impacting the analog chip supply chain.
2. 2. Technological Kidnapping Upgrade: 7nm chips fabricated at TSMC’s Nanjing plant face export control risks due to the use of ASML’s U.S. technology modules.
3. 3. Industry Under Currents: Singapore seizes the opportunity to launch a ‘bonded zone for chip manufacturing equipment’, attracting TSMC to expand its 3nm wafer fab to evade controls.

An international chip distributor revealed: ‘Texas Instruments’ order system in Texas has become congested, with Chinese customers flocking to local packaging and testing companies like Changjiang Electronics Technology, and some orders are shifting three times faster than expected.’

Supply Chain Restructuring: The Offensive and Defensive Game of Three Camps

Camp A: Technological IsolationIntel announced a $37 billion investment to build a ‘fully closed-loop’ wafer fab in Arizona, achieving full autonomy from EDA tools to photoresists. This ‘technological utopia’ model is costly but receives strong subsidies from the CHIPS and Science Act.

Camp B: Chinese-style BreakthroughHuawei’s HiSilicon recently unveiled its ‘Chip Stacking 3.0’ plan, enhancing the performance of 14nm chips to near 7nm levels through 3D packaging. Notably, its supporting 28nm photonic chip production line has achieved a 92% localization rate for equipment.

Camp C: The Rise of a Third PoleSingapore seizes the opportunity to introduce a ‘bonded zone for chip manufacturing equipment’ policy, with TSMC’s expanded 3nm wafer fab equipment sourced from ASML’s Dutch production line, evading U.S. controls while enjoying Southeast Asia’s cost advantages. This new model of ‘technological decoupling but manufacturing coupling’ is rewriting industry rules.

Investment New Frontier: Value Pits in Under Currents

Amid the industry’s upheaval, three sub-sectors are nurturing structural opportunities:

1. 1. Refurbishment of Used Equipment: Tokyo Electron’s ArF lithography machines produced before 2018, after modification in China, outperform the original factory by 90%, priced at only 1/5 of new machines.
2. 2. Materials Reverse Engineering: A certain Sci-Tech Innovation Board company has developed a more compatible KrF photoresist by reverse engineering ASML’s photoresist formula, improving yield by 15%.
3. 3. Equipment Operation and Maintenance Services: The ‘Lithography Machine Health Management System’ launched by Zhongwei Company has reduced equipment failure rates by 60%, prompting international giants to collectively procure.

A private equity fund manager revealed: ‘We are forming a special fund focusing on companies with ‘dual-track production capabilities’—those that can meet domestic demand while also possessing international compliance capabilities. Such companies have already seen a valuation premium of 30%.’

Endgame Simulation: There Are No Winners in This Game

As TSMC is forced to split the technical systems of its Nanjing and Kaohsiung plants, as Samsung’s Xi’an plant’s capacity utilization drops below 60%, and as ASML’s EUV lithography machines become ‘political collateral’, the global semiconductor industry is paying a painful price. According to Boston Consulting Group, the efficiency losses caused solely by equipment replacement will consume 15% of the global chip industry’s profits.

The true breakthrough may lie in a certain laboratory: The ‘topological quantum chip’ developed by the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, has achieved stable control of 144 qubits. This technology route, completely free from physical limitations, may be the ultimate answer to ending the struggle for hegemony.