This article is provided by the Semiconductor Industry Review (ID: ICVIEW).
In 2025, advanced process nodes will account for 51% of the smartphone SoC shipment volume, a significant increase from 43% in 2024.
According to the latest report from Counterpoint titled “Global Smartphone AP-SoC Shipment Forecast (by Process Node)”, by 2025, advanced process nodes (5/4/3/2nm) will account for 51% of smartphone SoC shipments, up from 43% in 2024. The core driving force behind this industry shift is the transition of mid-range smartphones to 5/4nm processes, as well as the mass production progress of 3nm SoCs by major smartphone OEM manufacturers in South Korea and China.
The iteration of advanced process technology provides OEM manufacturers with the opportunity for core hardware upgrades, enabling them to integrate more powerful CPUs, GPUs, and NPUs, thereby supporting richer AI experiences on devices. As SoC manufacturers gradually transition from 5nm processes to 4nm, with plans to advance to 3nm and 2nm processes before 2026, transistor density and energy efficiency will continue to optimize, directly driving up semiconductor content and average selling prices (ASP), especially in the flagship AP-SoC sector. Under this trend, the revenue contribution from advanced process technologies is expected to significantly increase, with projections indicating that by 2025, they will account for over 80% of total smartphone SoC revenue.
In terms of competition among manufacturers, Qualcomm is expected to be the biggest beneficiary of this process transformation. Senior analyst Shivani Parashar predicts that by 2025, Qualcomm’s SoC shipment share will approach 40%, a year-on-year increase of 28%, surpassing Apple to become the global leader. This growth is attributed to its transition of 5G SoCs to 5/4nm processes to enhance performance, as well as the expansion of production capacity for flagship 3nm SoCs. Meanwhile, Qualcomm’s limited investment in 4G has further propelled its strategy of migrating most entry-level and mid-range 5G SoCs to advanced processes. MediaTek is also performing well, with its advanced process chip shipments expected to grow by 69% year-on-year in 2025, driven by the migration of its mid-range product line to 5/4nm processes, with market share expected to continue to rise.
On the manufacturing side, TSMC remains the leader in advanced node SP-SoC foundry services. Analyst Akash Jatwala notes that by 2025, TSMC will hold over three-quarters of the advanced node smartphone SoC shipment share, with a year-on-year growth of 27%. Notably, 3nm and 2nm processes, with their superior performance, higher efficiency, and transistor density, as well as faster clock frequencies, have become key technologies to meet the complex computational demands of smartphone AI functionalities, immersive gaming, and high-resolution content, with applications continuously expanding. Senior analyst Parv Sharma states that the surge in demand for complex AI functionalities on devices has accelerated the transition of process nodes towards smaller, more powerful, and more efficient technologies, which has also led to rising wafer prices and increased semiconductor content, driving up the overall cost of SoCs. It is expected that by 2026, 3nm and 2nm processes will reach a critical milestone, accounting for one-third of smartphone SoC shipments, with Apple, Qualcomm, and MediaTek planning to launch their first flagship 3nm/2nm SoCs by the end of 2026.
From a long-term process layout perspective, within the next two to three years, 2nm processes will be limited to flagship and high-end SoCs; mid-range smartphone SoCs will first migrate to 5nm/4nm processes, gradually transitioning to 3nm, with projections indicating that by 2026, 5nm/4nm processes will account for over one-third, becoming the most widely used process nodes; entry-level 5G SoCs will migrate from 7nm/6nm to 5nm/4nm, while LTE SoCs will upgrade from mature processes to 7nm/6nm.
Currently, competition in the 2nm process field has entered a heated stage. Market news indicates that TSMC’s 2nm process is divided into two versions: N2 and N2P, with the improved version N2P expected to enter mass production in the second half of 2026. Apple plans to launch the A20 and A20 Pro chips based on the initial N2 process, while Qualcomm and MediaTek have chosen to directly adopt the N2P node for their Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 and Dimensity 9600 chips, respectively, aiming to surpass Apple in process technology. It is reported that Qualcomm’s Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 will support LPDDR6 memory and UFS 5.0 storage standards, and MediaTek has completed the first tape-out of its 2nm chip, planning to launch it by the end of 2026.
In terms of capacity, TSMC’s 2nm process is expected to face tight supply in its early stages, with monthly production capacity projected to be only 15,000 to 20,000 wafers by the end of 2025. Apple has already reserved over half of the initial capacity, which has become a significant reason for Qualcomm and MediaTek to shift to the N2P process to ensure supply. In terms of core technology, Apple holds an advantage with its long-term experience in self-developed CPUs and GPUs, achieving a 29% performance improvement in its A19 Pro’s efficiency core without increasing power consumption; Qualcomm has entered the self-developed core field through the acquisition of Nuvia, with the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 being only its second fully self-developed core chip; MediaTek relies on ARM‘s CPU and GPU designs, which can reduce costs but have certain disadvantages in performance and efficiency.
It is reported that Apple has secured over half of the initial 2nm capacity supply, a strategy aimed at maintaining its competitive edge.
In the face of capacity constraints, Qualcomm and MediaTek’s shift to the N2P process may be a viable option to secure sufficient wafer supply.
Analysts expect TSMC’s 2nm process to become a scarce resource next year, with manufacturers anticipating a monthly production capacity of 15,000 to 20,000 wafers by the end of 2025. In this tight supply environment, choosing the N2P process may provide Android chip manufacturers with more stable capacity assurance.
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