Trump’s Proposed Chip Tax Shakes Global Trade; Leap Motor Responds to Credit Crisis with Resilience

On September 27, 2025, the global trade landscape was once again thrown into turmoil by two significant announcements: the Trump administration is reportedly considering an unprecedented tariff policy that would impose taxes based on the number of chips in imported electronic devices; meanwhile, Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Leap Motor found itself embroiled in a “credit default” controversy but quickly clarified the facts through an official statement. These two events reflect the complexity of current international economic relations and the resilience of companies in facing challenges.

1. Chip Tax: A “Technological Upgrade” in Trade Protectionism

(1) Policy Details Emerge

According to a Reuters report on September 26, citing three informed sources, the Trump administration is contemplating a “chip quantity tax” on imported electronic devices. This policy aims to levy tariffs based on the number of chips installed in each device, covering a range of consumer products from electric toothbrushes to laptops. For example, a smartphone equipped with five chips may face a higher tax rate than a similar product with two chips.

Although the U.S. Department of Commerce has not officially responded, White House spokesperson Kush DeSai emphasized, “The U.S. cannot rely on foreign imports for critical semiconductor products.” This statement aligns with the previous strategy of the Trump administration to promote the return of manufacturing. Data shows that by 2025, the U.S. will still rely on imports for 62% of its semiconductors, while the global chip shortage has already led to a cumulative production loss of over 3 million vehicles in its automotive industry.

(2) Policy Intent and Potential Impact

1. Forcing Industry Chain Relocation The essence of this policy is to use tariff leverage to compel multinational companies to relocate chip production to the U.S. For instance, if Apple does not establish sufficient production capacity in the U.S., its iPhone products may incur high tariffs based on the number of chips. Morgan Stanley estimates that if the policy is implemented, the price of an iPhone in the U.S. market could increase by $200.

2. Raising Global Inflation Risks Michael Strain, an economist at the American Enterprise Institute, warns that the new tariffs will be directly passed on to consumers. For example, if a laptop priced at $1500 incurs a 25% chip-related tariff, the final price could rise to $1875. A Yale University model indicates that this policy could increase annual household spending in the U.S. by $2400.

3. Triggering Global Supply Chain Restructuring The European Union has announced an investment of €43 billion to enhance domestic chip production capacity, while Malaysia and Vietnam are accelerating their roles in semiconductor packaging and testing. Although TSMC’s Arizona factory has begun production of 4nm processes, there remains a shortage of 12,000 engineers in the U.S., causing its production ramp-up to fall short of expectations.

(3) Diverging Corporate Response Strategies

1. Big Tech Negotiates Exemptions Apple has successfully negotiated tariff exemptions by committing an additional $100 billion in investments in the U.S. (totaling $600 billion). Its supply chain adjustments include co-building a glass factory in Kentucky with Corning and collaborating with Texas Instruments to establish a server base in Houston.

2. Small and Medium Enterprises Under Pressure Companies like Dell and HP face a dilemma: if they cannot meet the “1:1 chip production ratio” (i.e., the number of chips produced domestically must equal the number imported), they may be forced to exit the U.S. market. Analysts point out that this policy will accelerate industry concentration, with the top five players in the global PC market potentially increasing their share from 78% to 85%.

3. Chinese Industry Chain Upgrade SMIC’s Beijing factory has achieved mass production of 28nm chips, and Yangtze Memory Technologies has surpassed a monthly production capacity of 300,000 wafers at its Wuhan base. Data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that by 2025, China’s chip self-sufficiency rate will reach 37%, an increase of 19 percentage points from 2020.

2. Leap Motor Crisis: A Credit Crisis Triggered by Vehicle Transfer

(1) Contract Disputes Behind the Default List

On September 25, the Chinese Execution Information Disclosure Network showed that Leap Motor and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Lingpao Automotive Trading, were listed as credit defaulters by the People’s Court of Baiyun District, Guangzhou, involving an amount of 3.6181 million yuan. The case originated from a leasing contract dispute with Guangzhou Shouqi Automotive Service Co., Ltd.:

• Debt Composition: Rent of 416,000 yuan, vehicle purchase amount of 2.7157 million yuan, penalty of 446,400 yuan, and legal fees of 40,000 yuan.
• Dispute Focus: Leap Motor has paid all amounts as per the mediation agreement, but the transfer procedures for 73 vehicles have not been completed.

(2) Corporate Emergency Response to Mitigate Crisis

On September 27, Leap Motor issued a statement clarifying:

1. Debt Settled: The debt of 3.6181 million yuan was fully paid on June 25, 2024, two days ahead of the agreed date.
2. Nature of Transfer Dispute: The remaining dispute pertains to the vehicle registration change procedures, which are part of the contract fulfillment follow-up matters.
3. Operations Unaffected: Current delivery volume has increased by 127% year-on-year, with new orders exceeding 42,000 units in September.

(3) Industry Challenges Behind the Crisis

1. Complexity of Supply Chain Management The Leap Motor case exposes compliance risks in asset disposal for new energy vehicle companies. Tianyancha shows that the involved Guangzhou Shouqi Automotive Service Co., Ltd. is controlled by the Beijing municipal government, highlighting the challenges of process control in state-owned enterprise cooperation.

2. Need for Improved Credit Repair Mechanisms Although Leap Motor quickly fulfilled its payment obligations, being listed as a credit defaulter due to technical delays in vehicle transfer reflects the need for finer distinctions in China’s credit system between “partial fulfillment” and “complete default.”

3. Stable Capital Market Reaction After the opening of the Hong Kong stock market on September 27, Leap Motor’s stock price fluctuated only 1.3%, indicating that investors maintain confidence in its fundamentals. JPMorgan Chase reiterated its “overweight” rating, with a target price of 145 Hong Kong dollars.

3. Global Economic and Trade Insights from Dual Events

(1) The Dual Nature of Trade Protectionism

The Trump administration’s chip tax policy essentially aims to reconstruct global division of labor through technical barriers. However, historical experience shows that the 2018 steel and aluminum tariffs led to a 1.4% increase in U.S. manufacturing costs, and this policy may face even greater resistance:

• Opposition from Business Alliances: The Semiconductor Industry Association of America, along with 28 multinational companies, submitted a report stating that the tariffs would increase U.S. chip design costs by 35%.
• Consumer Group Protests: A survey by the National Retail Federation shows that 76% of Americans oppose increased tariffs on consumer electronics.

(2) Strategies for Chinese Enterprises

1. Technological Self-Reliance Breakthroughs Huawei’s Ascend 910B AI chip performance has reached 80% of NVIDIA’s A100, and Cambricon’s Siyuan 590 chip has achieved commercial use in HPC scenarios, demonstrating China’s rapid progress in the high-end chip sector.

2. Diversified Market Layout Leap Motor aims for 31% of its overseas sales by 2025, with the Southeast Asian market growing by 240% year-on-year. BYD’s Yuan PLUS has captured a 29% market share in Thailand, surpassing Tesla’s Model Y.

3. Utilization of Legal Tools In response to the U.S. Section 301 investigation, China has filed a lawsuit with the WTO and introduced the “Unreliable Entity List Regulations” for reciprocal countermeasures. In the Leap Motor incident, the company quickly resolved the crisis by publicly providing payment receipts, setting a precedent for similar disputes.

(3) Resilience Testing of Global Supply Chains

Currently, the semiconductor industry is experiencing a third wave of relocation:

• United States: Attracting $52 billion in investments through the CHIPS and Science Act, but Intel’s Arizona factory has delayed production due to labor shortages.
• China: Constructing 14 12-inch wafer fabs, ranking first globally.
• East Asia: TSMC and Samsung Electronics maintain technological leadership, but geopolitical risks are rising.

In this war without gunpowder, companies must not only cope with compliance costs arising from policy changes but also seize opportunities created by technological iterations. As Leap Motor stated in its announcement, “Challenges are catalysts for growth.” As trade protectionist barriers rise, the true winners will be those innovators who can both maintain their bottom line and break through boundaries.