Introduction
The Ascend roadmap and domestic HBM are likely to boost the market share of domestic computing chips. To expand chip production, equipment must be prioritized; among front-end, packaging, and advanced packaging, the first to realize returns and the most stable cash flow remains PCB equipment.
Overview of Semiconductor Equipment
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Front-end: Etching and thin film deposition equipment (North Huachuang, Zhongwei, Tuojing, Jingsheng, Maiwei) benefit from advanced process expansion, but the validation cycle is long and capital expenditure rhythms fluctuate.
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Back-end Packaging/Test Equipment: Huafeng Measurement and Control, Changchuan Technology are catching up in SoC test equipment, but replacement still requires large customers to adopt in bulk.
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Advanced Packaging: Thinning, cutting, grinding, bonding, and plating (Jingsheng, Maiwei, Huahai Qingke, Shengmei, Xinyuan Micro, Delong, etc.) have a large market, but returns are more medium to long-term.
These directions are characterized by a “long slope and thick snow”; while PCB equipment is “quick to buy, quick to install, and quick to see results”.
PCB Equipment: Why Quick Returns
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Rigid Demand: AI servers, advanced packaging substrates, and arbitrary layer HDI have raised precision and capacity, requiring board manufacturers to purchase equipment first in every expansion cycle. The global PCB market is expected to reach approximately $81 billion by 2025 and $104.5 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 5%.
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Company Evidence:
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Shenqi Microelectronics: Phase II production, design capacity limit of 1,500 units/year, full orders for direct writing/exposure.
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Dingtai High-Tech: Monthly production capacity exceeds 100 million needles, with an increasing proportion of fine diameter and high-end coatings, leading to higher gross margins.
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DAZU CNC: Comprehensive coverage of mechanical and laser drilling, ultra-fast laser drilling is on the verge of mass production.
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Kaige Precision Machinery: The “integrated printing and inspection machine” developed in collaboration with Huawei has completed validation and is ready for industry-wide promotion.
Market Space and Localization Rate
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Global Market Size: The total PCB market is expected to be around $81–89 billion by 2025, with a potential to exceed $104 billion by 2030.
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Chinese Market: Expected to be around 350–400 billion yuan in 2024, recovering to about 430 billion yuan in 2025, with a continuous increase in the proportion of high-end HDI and substrates.
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Localization Rate: The current localization rate of PCB manufacturing equipment is about 30–40%, expected to increase to 60–70% by 2028, corresponding to a market space of about 40–50 billion yuan.
Performance Derivation (Core Company Examples)
Shenqi Microelectronics (Exposure/Direct Writing)
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Capacity: 1,500 units/year
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Assuming a utilization rate of 60%–85%, single machine ASP of 1.2–1.4 million
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Revenue range: 1.08–1.79 billion yuan, net profit margin 18–22%, net profit of about 190–390 million yuan
Dingtai High-Tech (Drilling Needle Consumables)
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Monthly production capacity > 100 million needles
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Assuming annual sales of 900–1,200 million needles, ASP of 0.09–0.11 yuan/needle
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Revenue range: 810–1,320 million yuan, gross profit of 310–550 million yuan
DAZU CNC (Mechanical/Laser + Ultra-Fast)
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Base: Traditional models increase by 15% annually with Capex
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New: Ultra-fast laser first-year shipments of 100–300 units, single machine 2–2.5 million
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Revenue increment: 200–750 million yuan
Kaige Precision Machinery (Integrated Printing and Inspection Machine)
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External replication of 50–150 lines, single line value of 800,000–1.2 million
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Revenue increment: 40–180 million yuan
Overall, in the domestic market alone, the PCB equipment industry is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in scale, with leading companies having a path to double their performance.
Risk Warning
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Downstream expansion not meeting expectations → Delivery delays
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Bottlenecks in core components and personnel ramp-up → Affecting annual utilization rates
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Technical route competition (mechanical/laser/ultra-fast, different substrates) → Need to track changes in customer materials
Conclusion
The story of domestic computing power has its first half as “replacement” and the second half as “volume production”. The first to turn this story into a profit statement remains PCB equipment.