The “Master Plan” has been a hallmark of Tesla’s continuous establishment of milestone achievements in the global technology industry since its inception. However, few could have predicted that its new version would arrive so swiftly.
On September 2, Tesla unveiled the fourth chapter of its “Master Plan,” which centers on accelerating the world’s transition to “sustainable abundance” through the integration of artificial intelligence, automation technology, and large-scale manufacturing capabilities, achieving unrestricted sustainable development and human prosperity.
Specific plans include products and technologies that help people “move towards prosperity,” such as solar power generation, battery storage, autonomous vehicles, and the Optimus robot. The Optimus robot is explicitly defined as a development and innovation aimed at replacing humans in repetitive and dangerous tasks.
Notably, the release of the fourth chapter of the “Master Plan” comes just two and a half years after the third chapter, a pace much faster than before. Previously, the first three chapters were released in August 2006, July 2016, and March 2023, with intervals of ten and seven years.
Despite facing the most severe doubts and short-selling pressures from Wall Street since its establishment during these two and a half years, CEO Elon Musk is clearly trying to find new leverage for the company’s trillion-dollar valuation. Thus, robots have become the tool he uses to write a new story for Tesla.
The “Vague” Master Plan
“This time, for Tesla and all of humanity, it is no longer a simple step but a leap. The tools we are going to develop will help us build the world we have always dreamed of—a sustainable and prosperous world—by redefining the fundamental elements of labor, transportation, and energy on a large scale for all humanity,” Tesla stated in the fourth chapter of the “Master Plan.”
In this relatively short document, Tesla still intends to focus on the Optimus robot.
Tesla stated that the Optimus robot is not only changing humanity’s attitude towards labor itself but also altering the availability and performance of the workforce. Those monotonous or dangerous jobs and tasks can now be completed in other ways. Thus, the mission of Optimus is to give time back to people, allowing them to pursue their passions.
After releasing the Master Plan, Musk stated that 80% of Tesla’s future value comes from robots, and that current Tesla cars are merely “robots on wheels.”
Looking back, the first three versions of Tesla’s “Master Plan” focused on: developing electric vehicles with good usability, reliability, and cost-effectiveness; comprehensive utilization of solar energy and fully autonomous driving; and energy storage and comprehensive electrification of transportation, automation, etc.
Although the Optimus robot was launched as early as 2022, it was not explicitly mentioned in the third chapter of the “Master Plan” released in 2023.
Wall Street generally believes that the fourth chapter of the “Master Plan” marks a shift in Tesla’s corporate strategic logic from electric vehicles to AI-driven initiatives, which will undoubtedly become an important business event to stimulate the company’s imagination. However, risks and opportunities coexist. Even though AI is an inevitable business driver in the long run, Tesla will still face multiple challenges such as performance decline, financial risks, execution uncertainties, and competitive pressures in the process of accelerating the development of AI-related businesses.
Sean O’Kane, a technology columnist for Wall Street, bluntly stated that the fourth chapter of the “Master Plan” sounds like nonsense generated by a large language model, resembling a child imitating a college student and lacking substantive content.
Pioneering Industrial Applications
In fact, in previous “Master Plans,” although Tesla has boldly shared its innovative ideas with the public, there were still grounded details in its ambitious outlook.
For example, in the first chapter of the “Master Plan” released in 2006, Tesla clearly mentioned the release plans for several models and their respective market positioning, and the models now known as “S3XY” have already been realized; in 2016, the second chapter of the “Master Plan” specified that FSD autonomous driving should be ten times safer than human drivers, and that owners could earn money through idle vehicles, etc. In the third chapter of the “Master Plan,” Tesla provided details on the storage scale, power generation capacity, and even specific investment amounts for its energy storage products.
However, in this fourth chapter of the “Master Plan,” aside from expressing grand ambitions to change the fate of humanity, there are not many specific plans and implementation details. This has been summarized by Sean O’Kane as “possibly due to the fact that the second chapter of the ‘Master Plan’ has not yet been completed.”
In fact, controversies surrounding the Tesla Optimus have been ongoing since June of this year.
In early June, internal personnel changes were reported at Tesla, with the project lead for the Optimus program, Milan Kovac, announcing his departure, followed by Ashok Eluswamy taking over.
It is reported that during Milan Kovac’s tenure, Tesla’s humanoid robot aimed to tackle both household and industrial scenarios simultaneously, but the results were not ideal. Therefore, Tesla announced an adjustment to focus on industrial scenarios, with Ashok Eluswamy, who is well-versed in the industrial field, taking over.
In mid-June, news emerged that the supply chain for Tesla’s humanoid robot was facing order cuts, and the procurement of related components was suspended. The order cut plan stemmed from the focus on industrial scenarios, which might involve overall changes to the component solutions, such as the dexterous hand’s load and durability being unsuitable for long-term repetitive work, overheating of joint motors, low transmission lifespan, and short endurance, all of which require comprehensive changes to the component solutions.
From the fourth chapter of the “Master Plan,” it can be seen that Tesla has set the short-term goal for humanoid robot development to replace humans in repetitive and dangerous tasks, which also confirms previous market news that “Tesla robots will first enter industrial scenarios.”
In fact, not limited to Tesla, since the second half of this year, domestic humanoid robot manufacturers have also clearly shifted from the “singing and dancing” demonstration phase to focusing on application exploration in industrial scenarios.
For example, Wang Xingxing, CEO of Yushu Technology, has repeatedly emphasized that the next 3-5 years will be a “golden window period” or acceleration period for humanoid robots to land in industrial and other fields. Currently, humanoid robots have made key breakthroughs in intelligent motion control, generalized environmental perception capabilities, and cost control, and are expected to replace or assist humans in various tasks and scenarios in the future.
According to reporters from the 21st Century Business Herald, a leading domestic manufacturer has developed an industrial humanoid robot that can achieve about 70% of a natural person’s work efficiency during an eight-hour workday under full load. It is expected that starting next year, such robots will gradually possess the capability to replace individual workers, and by 2027, they are expected to surpass the working capabilities of ordinary workers.
Source | 21st Century Business Herald