Shijia Photonics (688313.SH) Investment Value Analysis Report
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1. Core Logic: Accelerating Domestic Substitution of Optical Chips, Company Driven by “Passive + Active” Dual Engines
Under the global wave of computing infrastructure, the demand for optical chips, as core components of optical modules, is surging. According to LightCounting’s forecast, the global optical chip market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% from 2022 to 2027, while the domestic substitution rate for high-end optical chips is less than 20%, indicating vast potential for import substitution. As a rare domestic integrated manufacturer of “passive + active” optical chips, Shijia Photonics is expected to reach a performance turning point in 2024, with a net profit in Q1 2025 expected to increase by 1004% year-on-year, validating the logic of technological breakthroughs and capacity release, highlighting the certainty of growth.
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2. Company Overview: Comprehensive Layout of the Optical Chip Industry Chain, Strong Technical Barriers
1. Business Structure:
– Passive Optical Chips: PLC splitter chips (over 50% global market share), AWG chips (domestic leader);
– Active Optical Chips: 2.5G/10G DFB laser chips (mass production), 25G DFB (small batch), EML (under development);
– Optical Devices: MPO connectors, high-speed copper cables (strengthened active business after acquiring Changxinsheng).
2. Technical Advantages:
– Backed by the Institute of Semiconductors, Chinese Academy of Sciences, PLC/AWG chip technology is internationally leading;
– Indium Phosphide (InP) wafers are independently controllable, breaking through the “bottleneck” in high-end optical chips;
– Gross margin is expected to increase by 14 percentage points year-on-year to 29.08% in 2024, confirming the upgrade of product structure towards high-end.
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3. Financial Performance: Explosive Growth in Performance, Significant Improvement in Profit Quality
1. 2024 Performance:
– Revenue increased by 34.77% year-on-year, net profit increased by 231%, gross margin improved from 15.76% to 29.08%;
– Net profit in Q3 alone increased by 344.53% year-on-year, confirming the turning point.
2. Q1 2025 Forecast:
– Net profit of 93.19 million yuan, up 1004% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations;
– Driving factors: High-end AWG chip orders from North American data centers, active optical chips certified by Huawei/ZTE.
3. Cash Flow and R&D:
– Operating cash flow net amount increased by 180% year-on-year, R&D investment ratio maintained at 15%, ensuring iteration of EML/silicon photonics technology.
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4. Growth Drivers: Resonance of Three Business Lines, Accelerating Domestic Substitution
1. Passive Chips:
– Benefiting from the global upgrade of 400G/800G optical modules, demand for AWG chips has surged, with the company being a core supplier for leading North American customers.
2. Active Chips:
– 25G DFB chips will be introduced to domestic optical module manufacturers starting in H2 2024, replacing shares of Lumentum/II-VI;
– VCSEL chips for LiDAR have completed automotive certification, expected to contribute incrementally in 2025.
3. High-Speed Copper Cables:
– After acquiring Changxinsheng, the company has entered the supply chain for NVIDIA GPU clusters, with revenue share expected to reach 30% in 2024 and gross margin exceeding 40%.
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5. Conclusion: Dual Impact of Performance and Valuation, Seize the Golden Track of Optical Chips
Shijia Photonics, with its “passive + active” full industry chain capability, is deeply benefiting from the dual dividends of AI computing infrastructure and domestic substitution. Performance is expected to continuously exceed expectations from 2024 to 2025, validating the commercialization capability of high-end optical chips, with ample momentum for market capitalization recovery. It is recommended to actively allocate resources, with a long-term positive outlook on the potential for market share increase in the global optical chip market.
(Note: The above analysis is based on publicly available information and should be continuously tracked in conjunction with the company’s official annual report and industry dynamics.)