Time:November 19, 2025
1. The storage market continues to show upward momentum
1. Prices are rising across the board
– DDR4: The supply-demand gap for 8GB and 16GB products continues, with prices accelerating upward.
– DDR5: Prices remained stable in Q2, began to rise in mid-September, and nearly doubled in October.
– NAND Flash: Prices increased by 40% in October, primarily due to continued supply contraction.
– DRAM: Prices began to rise in March, and after September, due to sufficient supply-side destocking and AI demand, prices increased across the board.
2. Demand-driven
– The demand for storage capacity from AI servers is expanding, and manufacturers are strongly willing to adjust prices.
– The storage demand in data centers has grown from 60 billion GB in 2020 to 2.4 ZB in 2024, showing significant growth.
3. Manufacturer performance
– Companies like Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Western Digital achieved record high revenues in Q3, with continuous improvement in gross and net profit margins.
– High-end products like HBM3E and HBM4 are driving structural optimization, with HBM4 expected to enter mass production in 2026.
4. Module manufacturers
– Domestic module manufacturers such as Jiangbolong and Demingli have seen improvements in gross and net profit margins, with healthy inventory turnover.
– Taiwanese module manufacturers have accelerated revenue growth year-on-year.
2. Processors and AI chips
1. International manufacturers
– NVIDIA: The lifecycle shipment volume of the Blackwell chip is expected to reach 20 million units, with an entry-level chip set to launch in 2026, and GPU sales are expected to reach $500 billion over the next five quarters.
– AMD: Q3 revenue reached a record high, with an expected quarter-on-quarter growth of about 4% in Q4; the data center business is expected to have a CAGR of over 60% in the coming years.
– Intel: The DCG department is expected to see strong quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in Q4.
2. Domestic AI chip companies
– Companies like Haiguang and Cambricon continued to perform well in Q3, with ongoing demand for AI computing power.
3. Performance of domestic semiconductor companies
1. Overall trend
– Q3 performance was generally positive, but there was a divergence in performance across different segments.
– Consumer demand is weak, while automotive and industrial demand remains stable.
2. Sub-segments
– SOC: Growth has slowed due to the withdrawal of national subsidies and rising storage prices.
– MCU: Mild recovery, with Taiwanese manufacturers’ revenue remaining flat year-on-year.
– Analog chips: Weak consumer demand, recovery in automotive demand, with profit margins needing improvement.
– Power semiconductors: Mid-to-high voltage product prices are under pressure, and supply chain security incidents are driving domestic substitution.
– CIS: Revenue generally increased year-on-year, with mixed performance quarter-on-quarter, focusing on new product breakthroughs and domestic substitution.
3. Foundry and packaging/testing
– SMIC: Capacity is in short supply, with a quarter-on-quarter increase in capacity utilization in Q3; Q4 revenue guidance is expected to be flat to a 2% increase quarter-on-quarter.
– Hua Hong Semiconductor: Q3 gross margin exceeded guidance, with Q4 revenue expected to grow by 3.1% quarter-on-quarter.
– Packaging/testing: Strong demand in storage, computing power, and automotive sectors, with domestic companies like Changdian Technology and Huatian Technology seeing quarter-on-quarter revenue growth in Q3.
4. Equipment, materials, and components
1. Equipment
– The localization rate continues to rise, with significant growth in Q3 performance for companies like Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei.
– International manufacturers like ASML and Applied Materials are optimistic about revenue guidance for 2026.
2. Materials
– Demand for 12-inch silicon wafers and etching silicon materials is strong, with prices for specialty gases increasing.
– Prices for photoresists and chemicals remain stable.
3. EDA and IP
– Domestic EDA companies like Huada Jiutian are experiencing slowed growth in Q3 due to customer revenue recognition, with expectations for recovery in Q4.
5. End market demand
1. Mobile phones
– Global smartphone shipments in Q3 increased by 2.6% year-on-year, while the domestic market declined by 0.5% year-on-year.
– Rising storage prices are increasing the costs of flagship models, and AI applications may become the next breakthrough.
2. PCs and servers
– Global PC shipments in Q3 increased by 9% year-on-year, with AIPC demand gradually being released.
– CSP manufacturers are optimistic about capital expenditures, with strong demand for servers.
3. Automotive and industrial
– Demand for automotive semiconductors is recovering, with profit margins still having room for improvement.
– Industrial demand is stable, with ongoing destocking of silicon carbide devices.