In mid to late November, global markets are experiencing a complex moment intertwined with multiple events: there has been phased progress in the negotiations between China and the Netherlands regarding Nexperia, NVIDIA’s earnings report is impressive but cannot hide the divergence in tech stocks, A-shares are facing a broad decline, and the divergence in the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts and delayed employment data adds to the market’s fog. Coupled with subtle changes in geopolitical dynamics, the investment environment under multiple variables is fraught with hidden risks. This article will analyze recent core events and dissect the potential risks behind the market’s surface, providing readers with an overview of the current global financial context.
Nexperia: A Turning Point in China-Netherlands Negotiations, Core Controversies Still Raise Concerns
From November 18 to 19, China and the Netherlands held two rounds of face-to-face negotiations in Beijing regarding the Nexperia issue. The Chinese side clearly pointed out that the responsibility for the chaos in the global semiconductor supply chain lies with the Dutch side, urging them to take substantive actions to resolve the issue. The Dutch side subsequently announced the suspension of the ministerial order issued on September 30, 2025, which had frozen the asset and intellectual property adjustment rights of 30 entities globally under Nexperia, with a validity period of one year.
The Chinese side welcomed this constructive measure but emphasized that there is still a gap to completely resolve the core issue of “revoking the administrative order.” More critically, the Dutch corporate court’s previous ruling that stripped Wingtech Technology of control over Nexperia is still in effect, and Zhang Xuezheng’s related position has been suspended, leaving the company’s control over Nexperia still limited. Wingtech Technology has clearly indicated investment risks and stated that it will pursue legal remedies through an international legal team to protect its and its shareholders’ rights.
It is worth noting that the court’s ruling not being revoked has left the control dispute unresolved, and the stability of the semiconductor supply chain remains affected by uncertainty; subsequent progress in China-Netherlands negotiations and the outcomes of legal proceedings may trigger fluctuations in the stock prices of related companies.
NVIDIA’s Impressive Earnings Report, Divergence in Tech Stocks and Pressure on Chinese Concept Stocks
On November 20, Beijing time, NVIDIA released its third-quarter earnings report, which can be described as “beyond expectations”: revenue reached $57.01 billion, net profit was $31.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 65%, and adjusted earnings per share were $1.30, all exceeding market expectations. The core data center business revenue reached $51.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 66%, with the GPU business contributing $43 billion and the networking business contributing $8.2 billion. After the earnings report was released, NVIDIA’s after-hours stock price rose by 4.93%.
The three major US stock indices all rose slightly, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq rising by 0.1%, 0.38%, and 0.59%, respectively. Bank stocks collectively strengthened, but the market showed clear signs of divergence. Among large tech stocks, Google rose by 3%, and Tesla rose by 0.68%, but Microsoft and Facebook fell by more than 1%; most chip stocks rose, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up by 1.82%, and companies like Applied Materials and Broadcom rising by more than 3%, while AMD and Micron Technology fell by more than 2% and 1%, respectively.
Chinese concept stocks faced a collective decline, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index falling by 1.54%, Qihoo 360 dropping by more than 14%, and Tiger Brokers and Hesai Technology falling by over 10% and 8%, respectively, while Xinyi Technology and JinkoSolar fell by more than 6%, with only a few stocks rising against the trend.
The divergence within tech stocks has intensified, with some leading stocks showing corrections indicating market disagreements on valuations; the volatility of Chinese concept stocks has significantly increased, and uncertainties at the industry and individual stock levels may continue to trigger price fluctuations; although NVIDIA’s short-term performance is impressive, subsequent industry competition and changes in market demand may still pose performance volatility risks.
Divergence in Federal Reserve’s Interest Rate Cuts, Delayed Employment Data Adds to Market Fog
On November 19, Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the October FOMC monetary policy meeting, indicating that decision-makers have significant disagreements on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. In the previous October meeting, the Federal Reserve passed a decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points with a vote of 10 to 2, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%.
Previously, the market generally expected the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates by 25 basis points in December, but Fed Chairman Powell clearly stated in the press conference following the October meeting that a rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion. To make matters worse, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on the same day that due to the inability to trace household data from October, it would not release the October employment report, and the relevant non-farm employment data would be included in the November report, which will be released on December 16.
The rising uncertainty in monetary policy and the divergence in interest rate cuts may lead to increased volatility in core assets such as U.S. stocks and the dollar index; the delayed release of employment data leaves the market lacking key reference indicators, making it difficult to accurately assess the fundamentals of the U.S. economy, further amplifying market wait-and-see sentiment; adjustments in interest rate expectations may also affect the direction of global capital flows.
No Arrangements for China-Japan Interaction, Geopolitical Risks Looming
At the regular press conference of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on November 20, in response to the question of whether the leaders of China and Japan might meet during the G20 summit, spokesperson Mao Ning clearly stated that there are no arrangements for Premier Li Qiang to meet with Japanese leaders during the summit and urged the Japanese side to “act with restraint.”
This statement reflects the delicate state of current China-Japan relations, and changes in geopolitical interactions may indirectly impact bilateral trade, investment, and other areas. The potential risk is that if geopolitical differences continue to widen, it may affect cross-border cooperation and supply chain arrangements in related industries, thereby bringing uncertainty to the performance of listed companies involved in China-Japan trade.
A-shares Broadly Decline with Reduced Volume, Global Asset Trends Diverge
The A-share market failed to maintain its upward trend, with all three major indices closing lower: the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.40%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.76%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 1.12%, while the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 fell by 1.00%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 1.7226 trillion yuan, a decrease of 20 billion yuan from the previous day, with over 3,850 stocks in the entire market declining, while only the Hainan, banking, and lithium sectors rose against the trend, with significant adjustments in the China Shipbuilding and tourism sectors.
Global asset performance also showed divergence: spot gold rose slightly by 0.28%, reported at $4,088.260 per ounce; U.S. energy stocks fell across the board, with ExxonMobil and Chevron down by more than 1%, and ConocoPhillips and Occidental Petroleum down nearly 2%; in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin briefly fell by more than 3%, hitting a low of $88,600, and as of the time of writing, the decline was still nearly 3%.
The decline in A-shares with reduced volume reflects a cautious market sentiment, with the broad decline in individual stocks weakening the profit-making effect; accelerated sector rotation and insufficient sustainability of hot spots may increase investment difficulty; the risk-averse sentiment and changes in industry prosperity behind the divergence in global assets may further transmit to the A-share market.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article do not constitute any investment advice, and investors operate at their own risk based on this information.