Review: Guzi Economy vs. Semiconductor Equipment! Who Will Take Over A-Share Sentiment Amid US Rate Cut Expectations and Middle East Conflicts? The Mysterious Forces Behind the Surge in Gold Stocks?

Review: Guzi Economy vs. Semiconductor Equipment! Who Will Take Over A-Share Sentiment Amid US Rate Cut Expectations and Middle East Conflicts? The Mysterious Forces Behind the Surge in Gold Stocks?

1. Daily Sentiment Driving Individual Stocks and Logic

1. Guzi Economy Concept Stocks (New Cultural Consumption Format)

• Event Catalyst: The LABUBU series under Pop Mart is globally sold out, combined with the “National Trend Culture Premium” attracting attention from foreign media, leading to an explosion in demand for IP derivatives.
• Policy Support: The implementation of market-oriented data element policies promotes the integration of cultural IP and the digital economy.
• Market Sentiment: The Guzi economy, as a cross-topic of “consumption + technology”, possesses high elasticity and topicality, attracting speculative funds and retail investors to follow suit.

• Core Targets: Baixinglong (30% limit up), Aoya Co., Ltd. (20% limit up), Deyi Cultural Creation (19% increase), Shifeng Culture (10% limit up).

Precious Metals (Safe-Haven Assets)

• Geopolitical Risks: The tense situation in the Middle East has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
• Federal Reserve Expectations: Ahead of the release of US PPI data, market expectations for rate cuts have risen, weakening the dollar and boosting gold prices.

• Core Targets: Hengbang Co., Ltd. (10% limit up), Shandong Gold (up 4.2%), Chifeng Gold (following suit).

Innovative Drugs (Pharmaceutical Self-Control)

• Domestic Substitution: China National Pharmaceutical announced a significant License-out deal, accelerating its international strategy.
• ASCO Annual Meeting Catalyst: Innovative drug overseas clinical data exceeded expectations, leading to a valuation recovery in the sector.

• Core Targets: Haizike (10% limit up), BeiGene (continuing to hit new highs).

2. Sentiment Continuity Analysis

1. Guzi Economy:

• Short-Term Momentum: The IP derivative sector is in an explosive phase, with Pop Mart’s stock price increasing by 200% this year, sustaining sector sentiment.
• Risk Points: Caution is needed for differentiation after the peak of the theme, and attention should be paid to subsequent policy implementations (such as data element implementation details).

Precious Metals:

• Sustainability: Geopolitical risks have not completely dissipated, and the value of gold allocation remains, but attention should be paid to the correction of rate cut expectations based on US CPI data.

Innovative Drugs:

• Mid-Term Logic: Marginal improvements in medical insurance negotiation policies + accelerated internationalization, the sector has performance support, but caution is needed for valuation bubbles (BeiGene’s PE has exceeded 80 times).

3. Potential Sentiment Triggers and Sectors in the Next Phase

1. Semiconductor Equipment (Accelerated Domestic Substitution)

• Industrial Policy: The US has intensified export restrictions on semiconductor equipment to China, creating urgent demand for domestic substitution.
• Technological Breakthroughs: The Huawei Ascend Conference is approaching, drawing attention to the domestic computing chip supply chain.

• Potential Targets: Northern Huachuang (institutional accumulation), Zhongwei Company (technological breakthroughs).

Embodied Intelligence (AI Hardware Innovation)

• Event-Driven: The world’s first embodied intelligence robot 4S store has been established in Beijing Yizhuang, accelerating commercialization.
• Industry Trends: Tesla’s Optimus is about to go into mass production, and embodied intelligence may become the next windfall in AI.

• Potential Targets: Obsidian (3D vision sensors), Zhongkong Technology (industrial robots).

High Dividend Defensive Sector (Hydropower + Banking)

• Market Risk Aversion Demand: If tech stocks face intensified adjustments, funds may flow back to undervalued, high-dividend assets.

• Potential Targets: Yangtze Power (dividend yield 4.5%), Hangzhou Bank (dividend yield 5.3%).

4. Risk Warnings

1. Insufficient Volume: Current transaction volume is 1.3 trillion yuan, which has not effectively expanded.
2. External Disturbances: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting (June 12) and the progress of China-US tariff negotiations may cause fluctuations.
3. Unlocking Pressure: CATL (80 billion unlocking) and Haiguang Information (40 billion unlocking) may suppress tech stock sentiment.

Today’s market sentiment is dominated by Guzi Economy and Precious Metals, which may continue in the short term towards IP derivatives and safe-haven assets; in the next phase, attention should be paid to Semiconductor Equipment (domestic substitution) and Embodied Intelligence (AI hardware) policy and industrial catalysts, while guarding against unlocking and insufficient volume risks. A dual-line layout around “policy mainline + defensive configuration” is recommended, prioritizing performance-determined targets.