Research Interpretation | AI Hardware Shifts to Software! Google Play Opens Third-Party Payments in the US, Unlocking Key Leverage Against Android’s ‘Platform Tax’

Investing in AI applications is gaining attention, with leading companies like Kingsoft Office, 360, and Kunlun Wanwei starting to deliver performance in Q3 2025, significantly exceeding expectations. Coupled with the OPENAI IPO, AI applications are expected to become the next explosive growth industry. Previous related articles have anticipated: Research Interpretation | AI Software Releases Performance, Transitioning from ‘Computing Power + Models’ to ‘Infrastructure + Applications’ FlywheelComparing to the Internet revolution, the first wave was hardware, but the final explosion was software, with giants like Google, Tencent, Meta, Microsoft, and Alibaba.Focus on the AI application sector, particularly Kingsoft Software.Three major assets empowered by AI, with high growth certainty.Kingsoft Office: Leveraging over 100 million WPS users, fully integrating large models (such as WPS AI) to achieve intelligent document generation, meeting minutes organization, and other functions, with both payment rates and ARPU increasing. By 2024, WPS AI is expected to have over 80 million monthly active users, becoming a second growth curve.Kingsoft Cloud: Deploying high-performance GPU clusters for large model training/inference, with AI computing revenue expected to grow over 200% year-on-year in Q1 2024, potentially maintaining over 100% compound growth for three years.Xishanju: AI empowers R&D (cost reduction of 30%) and experience (dynamic NPC interaction, 15% increase in payment rates), with the new game ‘Jian Wang 3: Wujie’ AI system performing beyond expectations.Google Play Opens Third-Party Payments in the US, Unlocking Key Leverage Against Android’s ‘Platform Tax’Google Play has opened third-party support in the US for a period of three years.Google announced that for applications used by US users, it will no longer require the use of Google Play Billing and will not prohibit the use of other payment methods within applications; developers are allowed to communicate with users about the availability and pricing of off-store downloads/transactions and provide links for off-site transactions. The current ban is effective until November 1, 2027 (three years).Major global markets are pushing for channel openness.Google announced that in 30 countries in Europe, applications are allowed to guide users to off-site web pages to complete transactions, along with a new fee structure; the ‘initial fee’ has been reduced from 10% to 3%, and a tiered rate has been introduced; South Korea has legislated to require the opening of third-party payments, but the current rates are relatively high; Japan’s JFTC has released the ‘Mobile Software Competition Act’ (MSCA), requiring Apple and Google to open third-party payments and third-party stores, set to take effect on December 18, 2025; Apple has updated its review guidelines in the US to allow external links within applications, guiding users to third-party payment channels, breaking the closed nature of the ‘Apple Tax’ in the US. US courts and the EU DMA have opened pathways for ‘external links/off-site/third-party payments’; the ‘platform tax’ is transitioning from a single commission to a ‘tiered rate + security cost’ framework; the opening of Android in the US and the reduction of fees in the EU are forming a demonstration, with global channel openness being a long-term trend.Opening third-party downloads is expected to significantly enhance developer profit margins.The standard in-app purchase commission rate for Google/Apple is 30%. After the opening of third-party payments, developers can bypass the ‘platform tax’ and instead pay third-party payment processing fees, which typically range from 0.4% to 3.49%. Compared to the 30% share, this will substantially increase developer profit margins. Under neutral expectations, this is expected to bring an 8-12 percentage point increase in profit margins for developers.Companies with a high proportion of game exports, especially in the US market, will benefit significantly.Shenzhou Taiyue, with over 90% of its game business revenue from exports in H1 2025, has the US as its largest market; ST Huatong, with over 50% of overseas revenue in H1 2025, has outstanding performance in the US market; Xindong Company, with 50% of its game business overseas revenue in H1 2025; Youzu Network, with about 65% of overseas revenue in H1 2025; Glacier Network, with about 54% of overseas revenue in H1 2025; 37 Interactive Entertainment, with about 32% of overseas revenue in H1 2025; Tencent, with about 24% of its international game contribution in H1 2025. IGG, with 19% of its North American revenue in H1 2025.

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