1. Company Overview and Core Competitiveness
Allwinner Technology (300458.SZ), as a leading domestic intelligent SoC chip enterprise, focuses on three strategic tracks: intelligent automotive electronics, AIoT terminals, and industrial control, forming a “chip + solution” dual-drive model. In 2024, revenue is projected to reach 2.288 billion yuan (+36.76%), with a net profit of 167 million yuan (+626.15%). The explosive performance is attributed to:
– Breakthrough in automotive chips: The T527V automotive-grade chip has entered the supply chains of BYD and NIO, with a target of 25% for automotive business share by 2025;
– AI terminal ramp-up: The V821 chip empowers AI glasses (Xiaomi ecological chain), with MR527 robot chip shipments exceeding 500,000 units;
– Increased R&D investment: R&D expenses are projected to be 520 million yuan in 2024 (+45%), accounting for 22.7%, focusing on 5nm automotive-grade chips and edge AI computing power.
2. Stock Price Trend Analysis: Short-term Pressure, Awaiting Stabilization
1. Recent Trends and Market Environment
– Technical performance:
– As of the closing price on July 9, it was 37.92 yuan, with a cumulative decline of 5.12% over the past five days, underperforming the semiconductor index (-2.3%) and the Shanghai Composite Index (+0.8%);
– Divergence in volume and price: On July 8, there was a net inflow of 63.03 million yuan (with large orders accounting for 9.03%), followed by a net outflow of 112 million yuan the next day (accounting for 17.67%), indicating an intensifying divergence between bulls and bears.
– Valuation pressure:
– The rolling price-to-earnings ratio is 149.59 times (industry average 99.98 times), and the price-to-book ratio is 7.8 times (industry average 5.2 times), requiring performance growth to digest the bubble.
2. Analysis of Pullback Reasons
– Market style switch: In July, bank stocks dominated the index (+2.1%), while funds flowed out of technology stocks (net outflow of 3.973 billion yuan in the semiconductor sector);
– Technical pressure:
– The average cost of shares is 38.94 yuan, and the current stock price is below the cost line, leading to significant selling pressure from trapped investors;
– Support level at 37.73 yuan (60-day moving average), if broken, may trigger stop-loss orders;
– Industry risk fermentation:
– Trump’s tariff threat (exemption expiration on July 9) suppresses market sentiment;
– Doubts about the realization of price increases for memory chips (Q3 DDR4 contract prices expected to rise by 30%-40%).
3. Future Market Trend Prediction
– Short-term (July-August):
– Support level contention: 37.73 yuan is a key support; if stabilized, it may rebound to 40.5 yuan (previous high platform);
– Catalysts to observe:
– Micron’s financial report on August 21 to verify memory price increases;
– Sales data for AI glasses (equipped with the V821 chip).
– Mid-term (after September):
– Valuation repair opportunity: If economic data stabilizes (e.g., CPI exceeds 1%), combined with the mass production of the T527V automotive chip (monthly capacity of 500,000 units), valuation may repair to the industry average.
3. Core Business Progress and Growth Drivers
1. Intelligent Automotive Electronics: Pioneer in Domestic Substitution
– Technical breakthrough: The T527V has passed AEC-Q100 Grade 2 certification, supporting an 8-core CPU + 2 Tops computing power, applied in BYD’s AR-HUD and NIO’s intelligent cockpit;
– Orders secured: By 2025, 12 automotive companies have been designated, with automotive revenue expected to increase by 80% year-on-year to 570 million yuan.
2. AIoT Terminals: Deepening AI + Scenarios
– Tablet processors: A series of chips cover Xiaomi and Huawei tablets, with a market share exceeding 60%;
– AI glasses mass production: The V821 chip has a power consumption of 283mW@1080P, has entered the supply chains of Xiaomi and OPPO, with expected shipments of 3 million units by 2025.
3. Robotics and Industrial Control
– Robot chips: The MR527 (2 Tops computing power) supplies Xiaomi’s CyberDog2, with shipments exceeding 500,000 units;
– Industrial control: The R series chips enter the new energy charging pile market, with clients including TELD and Star Charge.
4. Financial Performance and Risk Alerts
Key indicators for Q1 2025:
– Revenue of 620 million yuan (+51.36%), net profit of 91.55 million yuan (+86.51%);
– Gross margin of 32.53% (up 3.2 percentage points year-on-year), R&D expenses of 150 million yuan (+48%);
– Inventory of 557 million yuan (+28%), with a provision for inventory depreciation of 29.67 million yuan.
Risk Focus:
1. Valuation bubble: PE (149.59x) requires net profit growth of over 80% in 2025 (institutional forecast of 220 million yuan);
2. Inventory pressure: Inventory turnover days of 98 days (industry average 75 days), if demand falls short of expectations, it may affect cash flow;
3. Technological iteration: The R&D progress of 5nm automotive-grade chips is lagging (original plan for Q3 2025 tape-out).
5. Investment Recommendations: Gradual Layout, Seizing Two Major Turning Points
Core Logic:
✅ Dual drive of automotive + AI: The ramp-up of BYD orders (25% share of automotive revenue) and the explosion of AI glasses (3 million units shipped) provide performance support;
✅ Valuation digestion path: If Q3 gross margin stabilizes (32%+) and revenue increases by 15% quarter-on-quarter, PE may drop below 120x.
Operational Strategy:
1. Short-term: Test positions near 37.73 yuan, with key observation indicators being the effectiveness of the support level and net inflow of northbound funds into technology stocks;
2. Mid-term: Increase positions upon breaking through 40 yuan, with key observation indicators being monthly shipments of automotive chips and sales data for AI glasses;
3. Risk control: Stop-loss if it falls below 37 yuan, with key observation indicators being the failure of memory price increases and continued outflow of industry funds.
Predicted rebound timing:
– Optimistic scenario: Verification of memory price increases in August + half-year report exceeding expectations (net profit +100%) → valuation repair to 45 yuan;
– Conservative scenario: Policy shift towards new productive forces in technology in September → fund inflow driving valuation repair to the industry average.
Conclusion: Allwinner Technology faces dual pressure from technical and valuation aspects in the short term, but the domestic substitution of automotive chips and innovation in AI terminals constitute long-term growth momentum. It is recommended that investors gradually build positions in the 37-38 yuan range, focusing on the realization of memory price increases in August and the market style switch in September, with a target price of 45 yuan (corresponding to a 2025E PE of 100x).
Data source: Shanghai Stock Exchange, Wind Information, CITIC Securities, company announcements. This article does not constitute investment advice; the stock market has risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.
(Note: This article is generated by AI based on public information and is for personal communication reference only; it does not constitute investment advice. The market has risks, and decisions should be made cautiously.)