Core Insights
AI servers are reshaping the global supply and demand landscape for storage chips, with HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) becoming the most scarce strategic resource. DDR5 and enterprise-grade NAND Flash are also benefiting from the growth in demand. In the context of accelerated domestic substitution, the main investment lines in A-shares are clearly differentiated:Tongfu Microelectronics (core of HBM packaging, tied to AMD + Huawei dual leaders) + Lanqi Technology (invisible champion of DDR5 interface chips, capacity chips opening a second growth curve) form a high-certainty dual core, while Biwei Storage and Jiangbolong (enterprise-grade SSD modules, deeply tied to Yangtze Memory) are flexible targets for domestic substitution, and Deep Technology is the “national team” in the field of trusted memory modules. It is particularly noteworthy that Changxin Memory (DRAM) and Yangtze Memory (NAND Flash), although not publicly listed, are the underlying support for the value of the A-share storage industry chain due to their technological breakthroughs and capacity releases — Changxin Memory has already delivered HBM3 samples to Huawei, and Yangtze Memory’s 160 billion share reform is accelerating its IPO, with the progress of both directly determining the pace and space of domestic substitution.
1. Industry Overview: AI Defines a New Storage Cycle
1.1 Types of Storage Chips and Application Scenarios
(1) HBM (High Bandwidth Memory)
HBM is a 3D stacked DRAM designed specifically for AI training/inference, with a single stack width of up to 1024 bits. The current mainstream HBM3E bandwidth exceeds 1TB/s, with power consumption per unit bandwidth only 50% of GDDR6. It is primarily used in high-end AI chips such as NVIDIA H100/B200 and AMD MI300X, with a single AI training server requiring 8-16 HBM chips, making it a key component in breaking the “memory wall”.
Latest Data: Global HBM demand is expected to triple year-on-year by 2025, with Yole Group predicting annual revenue will nearly double to $34 billion, and the average selling price reaching $1.80/Gb, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. The supply-demand gap continues to widen, with SK Hynix (70%), Samsung (20%), and Micron (10%) monopolizing the market. The price of HBM3E has risen to $300, while Samsung’s upcoming mass production of HBM4 is expected to be priced at $500, an increase of over 66% compared to HBM3E. More critically, NVIDIA is pushing for HBM4 specification upgrades, requiring Speed per Pin to increase to 10Gbps. SK Hynix, with its mass production system advantages, is expected to remain the largest supplier in 2026, with Tesla and Microsoft already expressing procurement intentions. It is worth noting that HBM3E may face oversupply pressure in 2026, but HBM4 will remain in short supply due to high technical barriers, with packaging manufacturers like Tongfu Microelectronics achieving a single HBM packaging profit of $50, ten times that of ordinary DRAM.
(2) DDR5
DDR5 is the next-generation server system memory, starting at a frequency of 6400MT/s, with an 87% increase in bandwidth compared to DDR4 and a 20% reduction in power consumption, forming a complementary architecture of “main memory + graphics memory” with HBM. By 2025, it is expected to account for 65% of server DRAM shipments, with AI servers carrying 2-3 times the amount of traditional servers, becoming the core driving force of demand.
Price Fluctuations: Affected by HBM’s capacity squeeze, DDR4 supply continues to shrink, with the spot price of DDR4 16Gb 3200 soaring 30% in October to $13, and the price of 16GB modules doubling from the low at the beginning of the year, resulting in an “intergenerational price inversion” phenomenon; the price increase for server DDR5 RDIMM modules is expected to expand to 10%-15% in the fourth quarter. Leading companies like Lanqi Technology are benefiting significantly, with their DDR5 product shipments exceeding those of DDR4, and the third-generation RCD chip being shipped at scale, with the value of a single DDR5 LRDIMM chip reaching $25-30 (twice that of DDR4).
(3) LPDDR5/X
Low-power DRAM is aimed at mobile terminals and edge AI devices, with LPDDR5 reaching speeds of 6400Mbps and power consumption reduced by 30% compared to LPDDR4X. In the third quarter of 2025, the contract price of LPDDR4X is expected to rise by the highest quarterly increase in nearly a decade (38%-43%), and LPDDR5/X prices are expected to rise by 10%-15% in the fourth quarter, with demand mainly coming from AI smartphones (30% penetration rate in 2025) and AI PCs. Changxin Memory has already mass-produced LPDDR5 products, entering the supply chains of Huawei and Xiaomi, with a yield of 80% for 17nm DDR4, and unit costs 15%-20% lower than those of Korean manufacturers.
(4) NAND Flash
3D NAND mainstream stacking layers are 200-300 layers, and enterprise-grade SSDs are expected to see prices rise by over 10% in the fourth quarter due to strong demand from AI data pools, with the price of 512Gb Flash Wafers rising over 20% since October. Yangtze Memory’s capacity expansion alleviates some pressure, but its global market share has actually increased to 8.1% (originally 15% based on domestic statistics), with original manufacturers like Samsung and SanDisk initiating price increases of 5%-10%, while consumer-grade SSD price increases are relatively moderate (5%-10%). Yangtze Memory’s 232-layer Xtacking 3.0 has achieved an 85% yield, with costs only 80% of imported products, driving orders from material suppliers like Yake Technology to exceed 70%.
1.2 Global Supply and Demand Landscape: Structural Shortages Persist
(1) Supply Side: Imbalance in Capacity Allocation Intensifies
Leading manufacturers are shifting over 70% of capital expenditures to high-margin products like HBM and DDR5, with the profit from a single HBM3E chip being 8 times that of DDR4, directly leading to a contraction in traditional capacity. Samsung has reduced DDR4 capacity utilization to below 50% and plans to completely cease DDR4 production by 2026; Micron has delayed traditional DRAM capacity expansion, focusing all investments on HBM and advanced packaging before 2026. The production of HBM chips occupies three times the wafer capacity of ordinary DRAM, further squeezing general storage capacity space, with global DRAM suppliers averaging only 3.3 weeks of inventory, far below the 10-week safety line. The packaging end, including Tongfu Microelectronics, is also tight, with its HBM production lines operating at full capacity, and orders already scheduled until the third quarter of 2026.
(2) Demand Side: AI Drives Growth Across All Scenarios
Global storage chip sales are expected to reach $184.841 billion in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.68%, and will increase to $214.826 billion in 2026 (+16.22%). AI servers are the core increment, with single DRAM demand being 8 times that of ordinary servers. North American cloud service providers have released their DRAM demand outlook for the entire year of 2026; in the end market, models like Redmi K90 have raised prices by 100-400 yuan due to rising storage costs, confirming the downward pressure on price increases. Data from Lanqi Technology shows that a single AI server contributes over $200 in chip value, with its net profit in the first half of 2025 soaring 95.41% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 64.34%.
(3) Price Trends: General Price Increases Across All Categories
Overall DRAM prices are expected to increase by 13%-18% in the fourth quarter, with HBM4, DDR4, and enterprise-grade SSDs leading the price increases; NAND flash prices are also rising, with mobile embedded NAND increasing by 5%-10%. Morgan Stanley has clearly pointed out that this round of AI-driven “super cycle” will last far longer than the cycles driven by traditional consumer electronics. Feedback from the Huaqiangbei market indicates that the spot prices of some storage chips have surged by 300% this year, showing a “hard-to-find” situation.
2. In-Depth Analysis of Domestic Storage Giants: Technological Breakthroughs and Capacity Expansion
2.1 Changxin Memory (CXMT) — Breaking Through DRAM and Catching Up in HBM
Technological Progress: The yield of 19nm DDR4/LPDDR4 exceeds 90%, and 17nm DDR5 is entering the sprint phase of mass production; progress in the HBM field has exceeded expectations, with G4 process (16nm) HBM3 samples delivered to Huawei in September 2025, with plans for full mass production in 2026 and a target monthly capacity of 50,000 wafers, narrowing the technology gap with SK Hynix to 3 years. Due to limitations of EUV equipment, the R&D of HBM3E has been postponed to 2027.
Capacity Layout: The Hefei 12-inch DRAM plant currently has a monthly capacity of 120,000 wafers, with a target to expand to 200,000 wafafers by the end of 2025, increasing global DRAM market share to 6%, with the localization rate of Huawei Kunpeng servers in the trusted computing field exceeding 60%.
2.2 Yangtze Memory (YMTC) — Global Breakthrough in 3D NAND
Technological Breakthroughs: The 232-layer Xtacking 3.0 has achieved stable mass production, with yields improving to 85% and costs reduced to 80% of imported products; the sampling progress of Xtacking 4.0 samples is going smoothly, with performance on par with international top levels, narrowing the technology gap with Samsung to less than one year.
Capacity and Market: Monthly production capacity has reached 120,000 wafers (doubling from last year), with 15% of 1TB NAND flash in flagship models from Xiaomi and Honor coming from its supply, and its own SSD sales exceeding 2 million units, with revenue growth of 50% in the first three quarters. It is currently investing 20.7 billion to build a third factory, aiming to achieve a monthly production of 150,000 wafers before 2026, using fully domestic equipment to achieve 100% self-control, and has entered foreign data centers.
Capital Dynamics: The 160 billion share reform has been implemented, optimizing the governance structure to meet IPO requirements, with participating companies like Yangyuan Beverage already receiving premium responses from the capital market, forming a closed loop in the industry chain of “flash memory manufacturing – wafer foundry – packaging testing”.
3. Overview Analysis of A-Share Listed Companies (Core Data Update)
3.2 In-Depth Analysis of Core Companies
(1) Tongfu Microelectronics — HBM Packaging Leader Breakthrough
Technical Capability: Independently developed 2.5D/3D packaging technology supports super-large size chips of 120mm×120mm, verified through the HBM3 packaging of AMD MI300X, with a yield as high as 98%, on par with international standards, and is the only packaging partner for Yangtze Memory’s “hybrid bonding” technology.
Orders and Performance: Secured 30% of Yangtze Memory’s 232-layer NAND packaging orders, with AMD contributing 50.35% of revenue (accounting for 80% of its AI GPU packaging share), and HBM packaging orders are expected to surge by 120% in 2025, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 27.72% year-on-year in the first half of the year. The HBM packaging capacity at the Nantong base is 80,000 wafers/month, with plans to expand to 150,000 wafers/month in Q1 2026, while also adding Huawei Ascend orders, aiming to increase the proportion of non-AMD business to 40%.
(2) Lanqi Technology — Invisible Champion of DDR5 Interface Chips
Global market share of DDR5 memory interface chips reached 36.8% (2024 data), forming a three-way competitive landscape with Rambus and IDT. In the first half of 2025, revenue reached 2.633 billion yuan (+58.17%), with net profit of 1.159 billion yuan (+95.41%). A single AI server contributes over $200 in chip value, with the global market share of PCIe 5.0 Retimer rising to 10.9%, and PCIe 6.0 products have been sampled, opening a second growth curve.
(3) Biwei Storage / Jiangbolong — Accelerating Domestic Substitution of Module Manufacturers
Benefiting from the supply and price increase of Yangtze Memory chips, enterprise-grade SSD shipments are expected to grow by 150%. The proportion of Huawei orders for Biwei Storage has increased to 25%, and Jiangbolong’s embedded storage penetration in AI terminals exceeds 30%. Under the pressure of price increases in the terminal market, the gross margin of module manufacturers is expected to recover to 22%-25% (from 18% at the beginning of the year).
4. Investment Strategy Over Time (Data Optimization)
4.1 Short-term (3-6 months): Peak of Price Increase Wave
Core Targets: Tongfu Microelectronics (full production of HBM3 + production catalyst of AMD MI350), Lanqi Technology (DDR5 penetration rate 65%+ performance realization); Elastic Supplement: Biwei Storage (volume increase of Huawei orders). Key tracking of DDR4 spot price trends, HBM4 specification adjustment progress, and Changxin HBM3 customer verification results is required.
4.2 Mid-term (1-2 years): Key Period for Domestic Breakthroughs
In 2026, Changxin Memory’s HBM3 mass production (monthly capacity of 50,000 wafers), Yangtze Memory’s third factory will be put into production (monthly capacity of 150,000 wafers), and Tongfu Microelectronics’ HBM packaging market share is expected to increase to 20%; Lanqi Technology’s PCIe 6.0 chips will enter mass production, and Yangtze Memory’s IPO expectations will heat up.
4.3 Long-term (3 years or more): Restructuring of Global Landscape
Targeting platform enterprises with global competitiveness, Tongfu Microelectronics needs to break through hybrid bonding technology, Lanqi Technology needs to seize the discourse power of CXL 3.0 standards, and Yangtze Memory aims for a market share of 15% (on a global scale).
5. Risk Warning (New Data Support)
Technical Risks: HBM3E may face oversupply in 2026, with prices potentially adjusting by 10%-20%; if NVIDIA’s HBM4 specification adjustments exceed expectations, it may trigger a reshuffle among suppliers.
Geopolitical Risks: If the US expands equipment controls, it will affect the progress of Changxin HBM3E and Yangtze Memory Xtacking 4.0; Tongfu Microelectronics’ dependence on AMD exceeds 50%, and fluctuations in customer demand may easily lead to performance volatility.
Cycle Risks: Samsung’s P3L plant is expected to reach full production by the end of 2026, which may alleviate the tight supply-demand situation for DDR5; if Yangtze Memory’s third-phase capacity expansion encounters yield fluctuations, it will drag down the release of orders in the industry chain.
6. Conclusion and Investment Recommendations
We are currently in the “upward mid-section” of the storage super cycle, with the strongest price elasticity for HBM4 ($500/chip) and DDR4 (doubling in six months). Against the backdrop of accelerated domestic substitution, Tongfu Microelectronics (HBM packaging), Lanqi Technology (DDR5 interface + capacity chips), and Biwei Storage (SSD modules) form the core configuration combination. Key tracking of five major indicators is required: Changxin HBM3 mass production progress (2026Q1), Yangtze Memory’s IPO timetable after share reform, Tongfu Microelectronics’ non-AMD customer expansion data, Lanqi Technology’s PCIe 6.0 verification progress, and the final landing of HBM4 specifications.