Abstract:
The global wafer equipment market has entered a recovery phase, with investment structures in mainland China shifting from “expanding production quantity” to “improving process quality,” and the localization rate continues to rise.
This bull market’s imagination in the semiconductor equipment sector comes not only from technological breakthroughs but also from the narrative space of market capitalization overextension.
This article provides a “Bull Market Endgame Market Value Guidance” for six leading companies based on industry trends and company comparisons, helping investors understand who is most likely to become the “CATL of domestic equipment.”
1. Industry Trends: Recovery + Domestic Substitution Dual Helix
Global semiconductor equipment spending is expected to reach $125.5 billion by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with a new high expected in 2026.
Although the growth rate in mainland China is slowing in the short term, the slope of domestic substitution is rising, with “hard general-purpose” equipment such as etching, deposition, cleaning, and CMP leading the way.
Policy continues to strengthen the direction of self-control, and orders are recovering amid differentiation.
The industry has entered a phase of simultaneous advancement in “advanced logic + advanced packaging + specialized processes.”
The market’s focus is shifting from “whether there are orders” to “order fulfillment rates and payment rhythms.”
2. Comparison of Leaders and Endgame Market Value Outlook
Shengmei Shanghai | Rise of Wet Process Platforms
Endgame Market Value: 150-200 billion RMB
The layout of wet process platforms from cleaning, electroplating to coating and developing makes Shengmei one of the most solid growth stories in the country.
With sufficient order thickness, the advanced production line logic for coating and developing machines, once mass production is achieved, the company will possess platform leader attributes.
In a bull market scenario, if the domestic penetration rate of wet processes rises to 50%, performance upgrades and valuation overextension will resonate, and the market value ceiling is expected to challenge 150-200 billion RMB.
Driving Conditions:
Wet process equipment for nodes below 28nm ramping up, successful validation of new products, bulk orders from overseas packaging customers.
Tuojing Technology | Accelerated Growth in ALD
Endgame Market Value: 100-150 billion RMB
The only company in China with mass production experience in advanced process ALD.
Currently, contract liabilities are growing rapidly, and Q2 profit margins are recovering quickly.
The company is advancing in both ALD and 3D integration (W2W bonding), and once fully introduced on both logic and memory sides, performance elasticity will be significant.
Referring to the high-growth equipment in A-shares during the bull market PS peak (10-12 times), Tuojing is expected to become the “high-growth alternative to domestic Lam”, corresponding to 100-150 billion RMB endgame space.
Driving Conditions:
High-k dielectric gate, Gapfill ALD achieving major customer repurchase; mass production of 3D integration equipment.
Zhongwei Company | Etching Leader Breakthrough
Endgame Market Value: 300-400 billion RMB
With etching + thin film + MOCVD three engines advancing, it is the company closest to international standards in domestic equipment.
Etching machine shipments are growing rapidly, and thin film/measurement products are replicating successful paths.
Currently valued at about 180 billion RMB, if core new products achieve mass production and realize breakthroughs in high-end logic + 3D NAND, the market will assign it a strategic valuation similar to “domestic ASML”.
The peak of the bull market is expected to challenge 300-400 billion RMB.
Driving Conditions:
Successful introduction of etching machines for 2nm nodes, MOCVD scaling, breakthroughs with international packaging customers.
Beifang Huachuang | Platform Giant Leading the Way
Endgame Market Value: 500-700 billion RMB
Covering all-stack links such as etching, deposition, cleaning, thermal treatment, and ion implantation, it is the “domestic application materials”.
With state-owned enterprise endorsement + the broadest customer base + the fastest technology iteration, it is the pricing anchor for A-share semiconductor equipment.
If multiple types of equipment achieve comprehensive localization and customer repurchase remains stable, the company’s market value is expected to peak at 700 billion RMB in the bull market overextension, becoming the “CATL of Chinese semiconductor equipment.”
Driving Conditions:
Mass production of advanced logic equipment, introduction of ion implantation/thermal treatment machines into leading production lines, domestic share exceeding 50%.
Huahai Qingke | Breaking the Monopoly in CMP, Accelerating New Tracks
Endgame Market Value: 80-100 billion RMB
A pioneer in CMP equipment localization, it has expanded from memory to logic production lines and launched domestic ion implantation machines.
The company is expanding from single polishing to “CMP + thinning + packaging equipment + ion implantation,” with revenue and gross profit rising in sync.
If ion implantation machines achieve mass introduction, the company’s narrative will upgrade to “front-end + back-end dual engines”, and the market value is expected to double to 80-100 billion RMB.
Driving Conditions:
Top three global share in CMP, bulk orders for ion implantation machines, ramp-up of packaging equipment.
Changchuan Technology | Breaking Through in Back-End Testing
Endgame Market Value: 100-150 billion RMB
AI and high-performance SoC are driving a surge in testing demand, and Changchuan is moving from mid-to-low-end ATE into the high-end digital testing machine market.
The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season for confirmed revenue, and the company’s profits are expected to double by 2025.
Under the logic of bull market overextension in A-shares, if it achieves large-scale replacement of domestic high-end testing machines, the market value could challenge 100-150 billion RMB.
Driving Conditions:
Bulk adoption by AI chip manufacturers, digital testing machine domestic replacement rate exceeding 30%.
3. Stock Selection Logic: Three-Factor Model + Market Value Elasticity
A. Order Surge → Significant year-on-year growth in contract liabilities, with customers concentrated in hard general-purpose positions.
B. Bulk Confirmation → A closed loop formed by delivery – acceptance – payment, resonating gross profit and cash flow.
C. New Customer Validation → Successful introduction across nodes/processes, with shortened validation cycles.
After scoring the three factors, a market value elasticity ranking is formed:
Beifang Huachuang ★★★★★ Endgame Market Value 500-700 billion RMB
Zhongwei Company ★★★★☆ Endgame Market Value 300-400 billion RMB
Shengmei Shanghai ★★★★☆ Endgame Market Value 150-200 billion RMB
Tuojing Technology ★★★★☆ Endgame Market Value 100-150 billion RMB
Changchuan Technology ★★★★ Endgame Market Value 100-150 billion RMB
Huahai Qingke ★★★☆ Endgame Market Value 80-100 billion RMB
4. The Endgame Rhythm of the Market: When Will It Peak?
Reviewing the new energy market:
Between 2020 and 2022, sectors such as photovoltaics and power batteries peaked and fell after penetration rates reached 50-70%.
The experience of new energy tells us: When high penetration rates + slowing marginal orders + rising inventory + extreme valuations occur simultaneously, the speculation cycle is about to end.
In comparison to semiconductor equipment:
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The localization rate of etching and cleaning equipment has exceeded 50%, with valuations hovering at high levels;
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Year-on-year growth rate of contract liabilities has decreased to single digits;
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Inventory has increased by 40% year-on-year, with some companies shipping faster than acceptance;
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The sector’s PS is about 10 times, and PE is close to 90 times, entering the overextension zone.
When the domestic penetration rate of industry leaders approaches 70%, and year-on-year contract liabilities turn negative,
this wave of “domestic substitution bull market” will come to an end.
It is expected that, barring black swan events, the main upward wave of this round of market will continue until mid-2026,
but structural differentiation may appear first in the second half of 2025.
At that time, high-valuation leaders will enter the performance realization period, while low-penetration segments will still have room for catch-up.
5. Conclusion: Who is the “CATL of Domestic Equipment?”
The speculation in semiconductor equipment during the bull market is not linear,
but a spiral of “order fulfillment → valuation overextension → leader repricing”.
From platform-type Beifang Huachuang and Zhongwei,
to slope-type Shengmei and Tuojing,
and then to breakthrough-type Changchuan and Huahai,
these six companies form the golden echelon of domestic equipment.
The true endgame of the bull market is not just a doubling of performance,
but the sum of “story fulfillment + valuation overextension” resonance.
In the next two years, if Chinese wafer fabs fully enter the advanced process era,
A-shares will see for the first time——
multiple trillion-level semiconductor equipment companies standing on the stage simultaneously.
Disclaimer:
This article is based on publicly available information and industry data, for research reference only, and does not constitute investment advice.
The stock market has risks, logic needs verification, and do not blindly chase high prices.