Core Updates and Spatial Calculations of Humanoid Robots by Dongwu Securities – Conference Summary

Meeting Time: September 26, 2025, 07:54

Meeting Topic: Core Updates and Spatial Calculations of Humanoid Robots

Host: Dongwu Securities Telecom Chief Zeng Duohong

Speaker: Research Team Member Xiaoyan

Participants: Institutional Investors and Invited Clients

1. Opening Remarks and Panel Insights

Zeng Duohong first reviewed the overall performance of the humanoid robot sector:

  • Since the beginning of the year, the sector has seen significant market activity driven by Musk’s “three-year plan”.
  • In the second half of the year, individual stocks have made positive progress, and the fourth quarter market is worth looking forward to.
  • The integration progress of overseas giants (especially Tesla) is a core catalyst.
  • Tesla plans to commercialize 1 million robots, with the third-generation Optimus expected to be showcased at the shareholder meeting on November 6, and mass production anticipated in early 2026.
  • Other overseas giants (such as Figure, Google, OpenAI, NVIDIA) are also actively positioning themselves, with new developments expected from the fourth quarter to early next year.
  • The commercialization year has begun, with large-scale commercialization expected in 2027, and 2026 serving as a transition point.
  • The main focus is on the Tesla chain and overseas chains, with companies having overseas supply experience being more advantageous.
  • Recommended targets: Sanhua Intelligent Control, Top Group, Keda Li, Zhejiang Rongtai, Zhengyu, Beite Technology, etc.

2. Core Target Calculation Methods

Xiaoyan introduced the calculation framework:

  1. Main Business Valuation: Based on the 2026 performance forecast, a certain valuation (PE multiple) is assigned to the main business.
  1. Robot Business Valuation:
  • Assuming Tesla sells 1 million units, revenue is calculated based on market share and unit value.
  • Net profit margin is assumed to be 10%-15%.
  • Based on the progress and certainty of cooperation with Tesla, a PE of 30-50 times is assigned to the robot business.
  1. Target Market Value: Main business market value + robot business market value.

3. Specific Target Calculations

1. Sanhua Intelligent Control

  • Main Business: Expected profit of 4.1 billion yuan in 2025, 4.6 billion yuan in 2026. Home appliance business PE of 20 times, auto parts business PE of 25 times, main business market value of approximately 100 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business: Assuming 70% market share, unit actuator value of 50,000 yuan, revenue of 35 billion yuan, net profit of 3.5 billion yuan, assigned a PE of 50 times, robot market value of 175 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 275 billion yuan (current market value is about 180 billion yuan).
  • Note: Currently developing dexterous hands, may expand into the domestic market in the future.

2. Top Group

  • Main Business: Expected profit of 3.6 billion yuan in 2026, PE of 25 times, main business market value of 90 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business: Assuming 50% market share, net profit contribution of about 2.2 billion yuan, PE of 50 times, robot market value of 110 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 200 billion yuan.

3. Yinlun Co., Ltd.

  • Main Business: Stable growth.
  • Robot Business: Assuming 20% market share, robot market value of about 30 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 61 billion yuan.

4. Zhejiang Rongtai

  • Main Business: Expected profit of 400 million yuan in 2026, PE of 30 times, main business market value of 12 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business:
  • Micro screw (dexterous hand): unit value of 7,000-8,000 yuan, 80% market share, net profit of 15%.
  • Linear actuator: unit value of 30,000 yuan, 10% market share.
  • Total net profit of about 1.3 billion yuan, PE of 40 times, robot market value of 50 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 62 billion yuan.

5. Keda Li

  • Main Business: Expected profit of 2.2 billion yuan in 2026, PE of 25 times, main business market value of 50 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business: Rotating actuator unit value of 20,000 yuan, 30% market share, net profit of about 400 million yuan (40% stake), PE of 50 times, robot market value of 20 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 70 billion yuan.
  • Note: Long-term cooperation foundation with Tesla, high probability of market share acquisition.

6. Zhengyu

  • Main Business: Expected profit of 800 million yuan in 2026, PE of 25 times, main business market value of 20 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business:
  • Linear actuator: unit value of 30,000 yuan, 20% market share, net profit of 900 million yuan.
  • Dexterous hand: unit value of 10,000 yuan, 20% market share, net profit of 300 million yuan.
  • Total net profit of 1.2 billion yuan, PE of 30 times, robot market value of 36 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 56 billion yuan (current market value is 30 billion yuan).
  • Note: Supplied to Xiaomi, Yubo, and Tesla is in the audit stage.

7. Fengshan Technology

  • Main Business: Expected profit of about 300 million yuan in 2026, PE of 50 times, main business market value of 15 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business:
  • Motor control chip: unit value of about 600 yuan.
  • Rotary encoder: unit value of about 2,000 yuan.
  • Total net profit of about 200 million yuan, PE of 100 times, robot market value of 20 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 35 billion yuan.

8. Silin Technology

  • Main Business: Stable profit of over 200 million yuan, PE of 25 times, main business market value of 5-8 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business: Harmonic reducer unit value of 10,000 yuan, 30% market share, net profit of 500 million yuan, PE of 40 times, robot market value of 20 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 28 billion yuan (current market value is 20 billion yuan).

9. Leisai Intelligent

  • Main Business: Expected profit of 300 million yuan in 2026, PE of 30 times, main business market value of 10 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business: Motor + driver + dexterous hand module, unit value of 20,000 yuan, 30% market share, net profit of 900 million yuan, PE of 30 times, robot market value of 27 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 37 billion yuan (current market value is 15 billion yuan).

10. Beite Technology

  • Main Business: Profit of over 100 million yuan, market value of 4-5 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business: Screw unit value of 15,000 yuan, 40% market share, net profit of 1.5 billion yuan, PE of 30 times, robot market value of 45 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 50 billion yuan.

11. Fulian Precision

  • Main Business: Expected profit of 1.2 billion yuan in 2026, PE of 20 times, main business market value of 24 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business: Linear actuator 20% market share, net profit of 900 million yuan, PE of 30 times, robot market value of 27 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 51 billion yuan.

12. Junsheng Electronics

  • Main Business: Market value of about 30 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business: Structural components unit value of 15,000-20,000 yuan, net profit of 1 billion yuan, PE of 40 times, robot market value of 40 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 70 billion yuan.

13. Dechang Motor (Hong Kong Stock)

  • Main Business: Profit of 300 million yuan, PE of 20 times, main business market value of 6 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business: Dexterous hand assembly unit value of 30,000 yuan, 50% market share, net profit of 15%, PE of 40 times, robot market value of 60 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 66 billion yuan.

14. Yapu Co., Ltd.

  • Main Business: Profit of 600 million yuan, main business market value of 13 billion yuan.
  • Robot Business: Rotary encoder unit value of 2,000 yuan, 50% market share, net profit of 300 million yuan, PE of 30 times, robot market value of 9 billion yuan.
  • Target Market Value: Approximately 22 billion yuan.

4. Summary and Outlook

  • Market Judgment: Optimistic about the market from September to November, with intensive catalysts from the Tesla chain.
  • Core Main Line: Tesla chain and overseas chains, with a focus on Sanhua Intelligent Control, Zhejiang Rongtai, and Keda Li.
  • Valuation Elasticity: If catalysts strengthen, the valuation of the robot business may increase from 30 times to 50 times.
  • Risk Warning: Attention should be paid to Tesla’s mass production progress, supply chain pinpoint progress, and industry competition.

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