Cambricon Warning Triggers Semiconductor Divergence, Industrial Fulian Leads Hardware Breakthrough!

1. Semiconductor: Short-term Pressure Does Not Change Long-term Computing Power Wave, Focus on Hardware Leaders

Logical Analysis

1. Performance Expectation Divergence: Cambricon’s full-year revenue guidance is 5-7 billion, lower than the previous optimistic forecast of 7.5-8.5 billion by brokerages, raising market concerns about the short-term profitability of domestic AI chips. However, it is worth noting that its revenue in the first half of the year surged 4347% year-on-year to 2.881 billion, with a net profit of 1.038 billion, already achieving a turnaround, and the high growth trend remains unchanged.
2. Equipment Side Adjustment: North Huachuang’s Q2 net profit slightly decreased, reflecting a phase slowdown in the pace of chip manufacturing expansion, but the medium to long-term logic of domestic substitution (increased US chip restrictions on China) still supports equipment demand.
3. Funds Shifting Towards Certainty: Industrial Fulian hit the limit up (market value exceeding one trillion), and Tianfu Communication reached a new high, confirming that funds are focusing on hardware leaders with “performance realization + global market share increase” amid sector divergence.

Beneficial Targets

• Server OEM: Industrial Fulian (AI servers account for 40% of global market share, benefiting from Nvidia’s order increase)
• Optical Modules/PCBs: Tianfu Communication (high-speed optical engine technology barriers), Dongshan Precision (core supplier of AI server PCBs)
• Chip Design: Cambricon (short-term fluctuations provide layout opportunities, domestic computing power demand remains unchanged)

2. Lithium Battery Equipment: Solid-State Battery Expansion Exceeds Expectations, Equipment Manufacturers Benefit First

Logical Analysis

1. Acceleration of Solid-State Battery Industrialization

Leading Intelligent’s semi-annual report disclosed that its full solid-state battery production line equipment has covered leading customers in Europe, America, and Japan, with orders expected to account for 30% of annual revenue, driven by technological breakthroughs promoting industry expansion.2. Confirmation of Equipment Business Performance Turning PointLeading Intelligent H1 net profit of 740 million (up 61.19%), Q2 net profit increased by 456% year-on-year, Hangke Technology also surged, reflecting that the equipment side benefits first from the recovery of capital expenditure in battery factories.3. Dual Drivers on the Demand Side

• Power Batteries: Global sales of new energy vehicles increased by 28% year-on-year (reaching 9.1 million in H1), with CATL’s expansion driving equipment demand..

• Technological Iteration: The commercialization of solid-state batteries accelerates, initiating a cycle of equipment updates..

Beneficial Targets

• Leading Production Line Equipment: Leading Intelligent (the only global provider of full solid-state battery production line solutions)
• Post-Processing Equipment: Hangke Technology (leading in solid-state battery formation and capacity technology)
• Battery Manufacturers: CATL (technological iteration + overseas market share increase, significant performance elasticity)

3. Innovative Drugs: Medical Insurance Directory Adjustment Ignites BD Transaction Expectations, Leading Value Reassessment

Logical Analysis

1. Policy Catalysis

The preliminary list for the 2025 medical insurance directory includes several “world-first” new drugs (such as CAR-T therapy), optimizing the payment environment for innovative drugs. The September national medical insurance negotiations and the World Lung Cancer Conference (new drug data release) will serve as short-term catalysts.2. Industry Divergence IntensifiesSmall and micro-cap innovative drug stocks are adjusting, with funds concentrating on leading companies (BeiGene, Hansoh Pharmaceutical reaching new highs), reflecting the market’s premium recognition of “clinical value + commercialization capability”.

1. BD Transaction DrivenDomestic pharmaceutical companies’ overseas licensing (License-out) has become normalized, with large upfront payments boosting cash flow expectations (e.g., BeiGene’s PD-1 overseas revenue sharing).

Beneficial Targets

• Big Pharma: Hansoh Pharmaceutical (new indications for PD-1, internationalization of ADC pipeline), BeiGene (global volume of Zepzelca)
• CXO Leaders: WuXi AppTec (global capacity + long-tail customer stickiness)
• Frontier Technologies: Kintor Pharmaceutical (CAR-T entering the preliminary medical insurance directory)

🧲4. Rare Earth Permanent Magnets: Humanoid Robots Open Demand Ceiling, Resource Premium Increases

Logical Analysis

1. Sustainability of Price Increases

Praseodymium-neodymium oxide has increased by over 50% this year, with dysprosium/terbium and other heavy rare earths also rising (European dysprosium prices have increased by 200% in four months), mainly due to China’s rare earth export controls pushing up the premium of strategic resources.2. Second Growth CurveTesla’s Optimus humanoid robot is about to enter mass production (targeting 50,000-100,000 units by 2026), with each unit using 2-4 kg of neodymium-iron-boron, leading to potential demand of 200,000-400,000 tons, equivalent to recreating a rare earth magnetic material market.3. Supply RigidityDomestic rare earth mining quota growth is slowing, and imports from Myanmar are unstable, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand.

Beneficial Targets

• Heavy Rare Earths: China Rare Earth (heavy rare earth integration platform), Guangxi Rare Earth (high proportion of dysprosium/terbium resources)
• Magnetic Material Leaders: Jinchuan Permanent Magnet (mass delivery of magnetic components for humanoid robots), Ningbo Yunsheng (high elasticity in high-end neodymium-iron-boron capacity)
• Light Rare Earths: Northern Rare Earth (largest quota share, benefiting from praseodymium-neodymium price increases)

Strategy Summary: Grasping Certainty Main Line Amidst Economic Divergence

1. Semiconductors Short-term digestion of high valuations, focus on the performance realization progress of Industrial Fulian and Cambricon.
2. Lithium Battery Equipment Under the solid-state battery expansion wave, Leading Intelligent and Hangke Technology have outstanding order elasticity.
3. Innovative Drugs Focus on the potential for exceeding expectations in medical insurance negotiations and BD transactions for leaders like Hansoh and BeiGene.
4. Rare Earth Permanent Magnets On the eve of humanoid robot mass production, a double hit on resources (China Rare Earth) and materials (Jinchuan Permanent Magnet).