Reposted from the Strategic Frontier Technology WeChat account
Yuzhu, Open Source Intelligence Center of Yuanwang Think Tank, Translated
On December 20, Technology Magazine published predictions from executives and technical experts of surveyed technology companies for 2024, covering topics from further advancements in artificial intelligence to developments in cybersecurity and quantum computing. The main points are as follows:
As 2023 comes to a close, the business landscape of 2024 will be reshaped by the powerful synergy of disruptive forces. The creative and problem-solving capabilities of generative AI will unleash hidden efficiencies. Sustainability, no longer a trendy term, will evolve into a strategic necessity, especially when building AI models. Quantum computing, once a science fiction concept, will open up previously unimaginable possibilities.
First: Companies Will Focus on Creating Guardrails to Mitigate AI Risks
Art Hu, Chief Information Officer of Lenovo, stated that companies deploying AI will increasingly recognize the risks and potential nature of AI, and more enterprises will take targeted actions to mitigate these risks.
“For example, new paradigms like retrieval-augmented generation can help large language models (LLMs) generate results from authoritative sources,” he said. “Other technologies, such as ensuring the quality and fidelity of training data, involving humans in training (human feedback-based reinforcement learning), and reasoning in the most sensitive scenarios, are ways to balance the enhanced intelligence provided by generative AI.
Second: Advancements in AI Will Drive More Energy Usage
As explained by Centoni of Cisco, sustainable energy plays a crucial role in addressing climate change. Choosing smaller AI models, with fewer layers and use-case-specific filters, companies will begin to reduce energy consumption costs compared to general systems.
“These dedicated systems are trained on smaller, highly precise datasets and efficiently complete specific tasks. In contrast, deep learning models use a large amount of data.”
“The rapidly emerging category of energy networks combines the capabilities of software-defined networks and power systems consisting of DC microgrids, which will also help improve energy efficiency. Applying networks to electricity and connecting it with data, energy networks provide comprehensive visibility and benchmarks for existing emissions, as well as access points for optimizing electricity use, distribution, transmission, and storage. Energy networks will also help organizations measure energy usage and emissions more accurately, automate many functions of IT, smart buildings, and IoT sensors, and unlock inefficient and unused energy. With embedded energy management capabilities, the network will become a control platform for measuring, monitoring, and managing energy consumption.”
“We will also see an increase in robust governance policies, processes, and tools, including testing and validating AI-generated content, embedding monitoring throughout the system. Having a clear AI policy that outlines standards for determining what is ethical, responsible, and inclusive will guide the use of AI. Coupled with education, so that teams working in this area can learn the skills necessary to implement guidance, this will be the cornerstone of tangible AI initiatives we see enterprises executing.”
Third: Social Engineering Attacks Will Continue to Rise
According to Turedi from Crowdstrike, identity-based attacks will continue to be a primary weapon for threat actors in 2024 for the simple reason that it remains a very effective method.
“As revealed in CrowdStrike’s latest threat tracking report, 80% of breaches occur through identity leaks. Adversaries do not only rely on compromised valid credentials but also abuse various forms of identity and authorization, including weak credentials purchased from underground channels, and have enhanced their phishing and social engineering techniques.”
“Social engineering is the highlight here, as companies strive to educate employees on common ways they can be deceived. This makes identity protection the most critical safeguard that companies should strengthen in 2024. Otherwise, adversaries will continue to target this weakness, and they often succeed.”
Fourth: Human Skills Are Critical for AI Adoption
The 2023 Global CX Report by NTT found that most CX interactions still require some form of human intervention, and executives agree that this will remain a crucial part of the customer journey. Although four-fifths of organizations plan to incorporate AI into CX delivery within the next 12 months, Sashen Naidu, VP of CX Services at NTT Ltd, explains that the human factor will be at the core of its success.
“As companies turn their attention to how automation can complement and enhance human capabilities, they will place greater emphasis on addressing the worsening skills shortage that will challenge AI ambitions. The fundamentals of AI and big data analytics will become essential skills for most jobs across industries, but new employees will not be the only pathway.”
“Research from NTT Data found that business leaders are more likely to see profit margins exceeding 25% over the past three years because they invested in reskilling and upskilling programs. This will continue into 2024, with more carefully curated learning experiences helping to close the skills gap and meet organizational needs.”
Fifth: Quantum Progress, But Not a Quantum Leap
According to Liz Centoni, Executive VP and Chief Strategy Officer at Cisco, in 2024 we will see the adoption of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) — even before it is standardized — as a software-based approach used alongside traditional systems to protect data from future quantum attacks.
“PQC will be adopted by browsers, operating systems, and libraries, and innovators will experiment by integrating it into protocols like SSL/TLS 1.3 that manage classic encryption. PQC will also begin to penetrate enterprises as they aim to ensure data security in a post-quantum world.”
“Another trend will be the increasing importance of quantum networks, where in four to five years — perhaps longer — quantum computers will be able to communicate and collaborate to achieve more scalable quantum solutions. Quantum networks will leverage quantum phenomena such as entanglement and superposition to transmit information. QKD as a substitute or complement to PQC will also utilize quantum networks, depending on the required level of security and performance. Quantum networks will see significant new research and investment from government and financial services, which have high demands for data security and processing.”
Sixth: IT Spending Will Focus More on Business Outcomes Than Ever
In the face of a constantly changing macroeconomic and competitive landscape, Linda Yao, COO and Strategic Director of Lenovo Solutions and Services Group, predicts that enterprises will focus on extracting more value from IT spending in various ways.
She stated: “First, they will demand greater flexibility in operations, aligning investments with returns. They want to improve the predictability of cash flow, whether that means using technology to stabilize revenue growth or achieve spending savings, or implementing technology in a way that allows predictable cash flow payments.”
“Companies will also focus on ensuring that IT deployments directly support or drive business outcomes. We will see more customers adopting IT based on the business outcomes they want to achieve, whether it’s top line, bottom line, or achieving specific customer experiences, sustainability, throughput, customer acquisition, or metric types. More companies will link their technology adoption to these metrics rather than deploying and maintaining technology in a vacuum.”
“Thus, IT spending on traditional infrastructure will shift towards spending on next-generation technologies, growing rapidly over the next 5 to 10 years as customers modernize or refresh their IT systems end-to-end. This includes migrating from traditional IT systems to hybrid clouds, adopting more virtualized and interconnected IT environments, and avoiding the use of traditional software licenses to provide highly personalized technology on demand.”
Seventh: Renewed Focus on Zero Trust Models
In today’s hybrid work environment, people are more reliant on devices, applications, and services than ever before, many of which are hosted in cloud systems and physically beyond the control of enterprise IT. This new landscape requires a zero-trust model.
Chris Pick, CISO and SVP of Smartsheet, predicts that in the coming year, we will see organizations adding additional layers to the model.
“For example, some organizations may add role-based security, allowing them to define roles for different types of users and manage their access accordingly,” he said. “This will enable them to protect sensitive information while reducing barriers to access for authorized individuals. Organizations may also add time-based access, allowing them to manage user access to information based on the length of their ongoing projects.”
“Additionally, generative AI has tremendous potential in enhancing data security and adding an extra layer of protection. No one can manually monitor all the data flowing through their business; intelligent systems need to take on this responsibility. Machine learning can ‘understand’ what is normal and flag anything abnormal.”
Eighth: Hyperscale Will Drive Powerful Real-Time Ecosystems
Generative AI is often criticized for leveraging outdated data to drive key task outcomes. However, Rodrigo Liang, CEO of SambaNova Systems, predicts that collaboration between hyperscale computing and AI models will fundamentally change the entire data analytics landscape, matching current data with real-time fine-tuning to significantly improve speed, accuracy, and price.
“We will continue to see a shift towards real-time fine-tuning, allowing models to adapt and understand current data, driving advancements in AI applications across every industry,” he said. “The combination of advanced chips and hyperscale data capabilities will create a powerful ecosystem that supports the development of extremely large expert models to address more complex use cases than we see today in marketing, advertising, healthcare, climate, banking, and more.”
Ninth: Integration of IT and Security Teams
With new threats emerging in 2024 blurring the lines between IT and security responsibilities, Zeki Turedi, Chief Technology Officer at CrowdStrike Europe, predicts opportunities to enhance organizational resilience through the integration of IT and security teams within enterprises.
“Traditionally, these teams operated independently, but now they find their goals and daily operations increasingly intertwined. This shift is driven not only by rapid technological advancements but also by the constantly evolving security risk landscape that directly impacts IT infrastructure.”
“This integration is timely and necessary, as singular threats now target both infrastructure and security, requiring a unified response. By fostering closer collaboration and sharing technologies and platforms, these previously distinct teams can combine their expertise to strengthen defenses against complex cyber threats. The emergence of cybersecurity platforms tailored for IT teams is a testament to this trend. These platforms are designed to integrate seamlessly with IT operations, providing real-time insights and automated responses to security incidents, thereby reducing response times and enhancing overall security posture.”
Tenth: AI Takes Center Stage, Moving from Theory to Practice
John Roese, Global CTO of Dell Technologies, expects that generative AI conversations will move from theory to practice, shifting from training infrastructure and costs to reasoning and operational costs.
“While generative AI has inspired incredible creative ideas about how it will change business and the world, there has been little large-scale generative AI activity in the real world. As we enter 2024, we will see the first wave of generative AI enterprise projects reach maturity, revealing important aspects of generative AI that were not understood in the early stages,” he said.
https://technologymagazine.com/top10/top-10-technology-trends-for-2024
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