Currently, Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) systems are the improvised explosive devices (IEDs) of the next ten to twenty years.—— General James McConville, the 40th Chief of Staff of the U.S. ArmyOn May 2 of this year, two unidentified drones attacked the Kremlin residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin, which were promptly neutralized by the Russian side using electronic warfare systems. Following this, several other drones attacked Moscow, with the Russian side claiming to have intercepted a total of eight drones, three of which were suppressed by electronic warfare systems, while five were shot down by the Pantsir-S air defense missile system. The political effects and influence brought about by the widespread dissemination of this information should not be underestimated, presenting new characteristics such as a lowered threshold for war, blurred lines between military and civilian sectors, disappearing technological barriers, and significant dissemination effects, which require high attention.
1. The War of Drones and Their Symbolization
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Since the early 20th century, with the continuous advancement of industrial manufacturing capabilities and information technology, drones have been increasingly used on the battlefield due to their numerous advantages, with battlefield functions and combat applications constantly expanding, evolving from simple “one-time toys” to a powerful family with comprehensive combat capabilities.(1) Early Application Stage.The development of drones has been synchronized with the development of manned flight technology. During World War I, powered flight was still a new phenomenon. In 1917, Americans Peter Cooper and Elmer Sperry invented the first automatic gyroscope stabilizer, which allowed aircraft to maintain balanced forward flight. This technological achievement successfully transformed the U.S. Navy’s Curtiss N-9 trainer into the first radio-controlled unmanned aerial vehicle, marking the birth of unmanned flight, although it never participated in actual combat. During World War II, Germany developed multiple types of drones and cruise missiles, which were used towards the end of the war. However, due to the limited power of drones at that time, insufficient reconnaissance precision of onboard equipment, and the inability of communication devices to complete long-distance communication, they could not undertake more tasks, primarily serving as target drones and suicide drones, and had not entered the public’s view.(2) Reconnaissance Application Stage.After World War II, various countries recognized the limitations of manned aircraft while vigorously developing manned aviation technology, and gradually developed unmanned aerial vehicles on this basis. In 1951, the U.S. Air Force designed and manufactured the “Firebee” prototype XQ-2 for its first test flight, mainly used for intelligence collection and monitoring activities of radio communication. Between 1963 and 1968, Lockheed developed the D-21 high-altitude unmanned aerial vehicle mothercraft and the M-21 high-speed unmanned aerial vehicle subcraft, which were mainly used for reconnaissance activities over the Lop Nur nuclear test site from 1969 to 1971.In December 1986, the U.S. Navy’s “Pioneer” series drones successfully flew for the first time, mainly tasked with “reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition,” and participated in U.S. military operations in Lebanon, Grenada, and Libya during the 1980s, marking their first involvement in actual combat. China’s military drones first participated in combat in January 1986, when a Y-8 aircraft carried and deployed a “WZ-5” drone overseas. Under ground station control, the drone flew back and forth 100 kilometers in 10 minutes, conducting photographic reconnaissance over an area of 2,000 square kilometers above the Vietnam River region before safely returning. Drones during this period, due to technological limitations, primarily participated in reconnaissance and surveillance functions and did not directly engage in offensive actions, and were generally not regarded as main combat equipment.(3) Direct Combat Participation Stage.In 1994, General Atomics successfully developed the MQ “Predator” drone, which, in subsequent upgrades, could be converted from a fully reconnaissance aircraft to one capable of carrying weapons and attacking targets. The Predator drone was first used in the 1995 campaign in Bosnia by the United Nations and NATO. In 2001, the U.S. military first used weapons on the Predator drone to strike targets in Afghanistan, marking the drone’s formal “participation in combat.” Since then, from the Syrian war to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, drones have gradually moved from the background of the battlefield to the forefront. Particularly in January 2020, the U.S. used the MQ-9 Reaper drone to launch Hellfire anti-tank missiles, accurately killing Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani at several thousand meters high, causing global shock. Since February 2022, during the Ukraine conflict, Turkey’s TB-2 drone has become a star, while Russia’s Orion drone has achieved many victories on the Syrian and Ukrainian battlefields, and drones like the Shahed-136 and Shahed-129 have gained fame due to their outstanding battlefield performance. From this stage onwards, drones and their related technologies have gradually matured, embarking on a path of specialization, and the direct participation of offensive drones has become the most notable feature of drone development since the 21st century. It is also from this era that drones, as a political and military symbol, are no longer a legend, but a living threat around us, becoming an unavoidable topic in military operations worldwide.(4) Entering the Era of Confrontation.In November 2022, a video appeared on social media showing a quadcopter drone controlled by Ukrainian forces hovering near another drone controlled by Russian forces. Subsequently, the Russian drone moved towards the Ukrainian drone, resulting in a collision that damaged one of the Russian drone’s propeller blades, causing it to crash. U.S. media interpreted this as “the first drone air battle in human history.” This drone air battle can be seen as the first real combat confrontation in the history of drone participation, although at a low level, it demonstrates new possibilities. In fact, as early as 2020, the U.S. Air Force had released a photo showing an MQ-1 Predator drone carrying an AIM-9X air-to-air missile under its wing, indicating its capability for air-to-air combat. At the 2021 Zhuhai Airshow, AVIC exhibited Wing Loong-10 and Wing Loong-2 drones alongside Tianyan-90 air-to-air missiles, indicating that the Tianyan-90 has become the standard weapon for these two drones. These phenomena indicate that in the near future, we will witness true “drone air combat,” where drones shoot down other drones, and even drones shoot down manned aircraft will no longer be far off. This indicates that drones have moved away from a subordinate role in combat and the nature of being a “supporting character,” gradually developing into an important combat force for all-domain operations.For some time now, the topic of drones has frequently appeared in the media, becoming a focal point in the international public opinion arena. As an indispensable component of the informationized combat system, it is foreseeable that drones will undertake tasks on future battlefields that are more complex and intense than manned aircraft, not only as a type of weaponry but may even fundamentally change the way battlefield games are played, having a comprehensive impact on the progress of human civilization.
2. The Impact of the Diffusion of Drone Technology
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Throughout human civilization, several epoch-making weapon systems have emerged, such as the “Maxim” machine gun during World War I, tanks during World War II, thermonuclear weapons after World War II, and aircraft carriers after the Cold War, which are closely related to technological advancements and social development at the time, directly reflecting the main ways of thinking, modes of confrontation, and styles of warfare in human society. The political and cultural effects derived from these have surpassed the influence of the weapon systems themselves. Under the current backdrop of the rapid development of drones and unmanned combat, drones have become an important symbol of contemporary warfare, reflecting meanings and connotations that transcend their mere existence.(1) The Political Significance of Technological Hegemony.The incident of the U.S. drone strike that killed Soleimani exemplifies how a few technologically advanced countries utilize asymmetric technological advantages to implement “proactive strikes” and “targeted eliminations” against potential threats, with the perpetrator being thousands of miles away, relying on electronic screens and remote controls to complete tasks, incurring almost no operational risks or psychological burdens, yet causing significant political, economic, and military impacts. This influence is evident not only in military and technological realms but also in political spheres, where drone warfare is interpreted as an extension of the means by which a few countries maintain hegemony.(2) The Innovative Form of “People’s War.”Taking the battlefield in Ukraine as an example, both sides have a large number of military-standard drones, as well as many civilian drones, and even numerous “homemade” projects. These highly creative modifications involve attacks by binding rocket launchers, suspending grenades, etc. Due to the generally open-source nature of drone control programs, coupled with the low cost and easy availability of civilian kits, especially under the influence of “geek culture,” the threshold for drone participation in combat has significantly lowered, truly becoming “aerial IEDs,” with some countries and media attributing political colors such as “the weak defeating the strong,” “resisting invasion,” and “opposing hegemony” to drones.(3) The Media Power of Information Broadcasting.Due to drones generally possessing good reconnaissance and surveillance equipment, and many civilian drones even having high-definition video recording capabilities, combined with the efficient dissemination capabilities of the Internet, the unique perspective of drones has become a distinctive “broadcasting medium.” The repeated images of drones dropping bombs on individual soldiers and armored vehicles on the Ukrainian battlefield are repeatedly rendering the strong attack capabilities of their side, creating psychological panic for opposing soldiers and civilians, becoming a “network amplifier” for real attacks, achieving “one attack, multiple effects.”(4) The Military Symbol of All-Domain Threats.Due to the extremely low technical threshold and potential lethal threats of drones, they present a political influence of “wherever they fly, they can see, and wherever they see, they can strike.” For instance, in the recent drone attack on the Kremlin, the drone operator could even infiltrate enemy territory, purchase drone kits locally, and use them after simple modifications to achieve attack objectives. This potential threat blurs the lines between the front and rear, transforming potential hazards into real and omnipresent threats, which in turn triggers public panic and concerns, causing other adverse consequences. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that the enemy may utilize drones to establish fake base stations, implement electronic interference, network insertion, information deception, and other non-traditional attack methods, forming widespread and lasting threats.
3. Reflections and Responses to Non-Traditional Threats from Drones
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Engels once pointed out: “Once technological advances can be used for military purposes and have been used for military purposes, they almost immediately and often against the will of commanders lead to changes or even revolutions in combat methods.” The rapid deployment of drones in combat and their demonstration of endless combat methods greatly exceed people’s understanding of drone warfare and research on related theories, but the development of warfare styles often does not shift according to human will. It is necessary to carefully study countermeasures based on in-depth observation and reflection, and to properly control potential risks.(1) Conducting Forward-Looking Research on Drone Warfare.Drone system warfare has become an unavoidable important field of future warfare. With the rapid development of the Internet and information technology, under the empowerment of various unmanned vehicles, traditional combat domains and combat styles are showing new characteristics. In this context, we cannot wait for technological development and equipment updates but must prepare in advance to study the basic styles, main characteristics, and potential risks and challenges of drone warfare, especially to expand research beyond the military field into new characteristics and changes, such as the threats posed by the diffusion of drone technology, the extension of drone functions by artificial intelligence and Internet of Things technologies, and the laws of information network dissemination, to effectively respond to potential challenges that may arise in the future.(2) Exploring the Establishment of Integrated Drone Forces.As the combat functions of drones continue to expand, drone forces should gradually evolve from a single specialization focused on reconnaissance and surveillance to a composite force integrating intelligence reconnaissance, firepower strikes, communication electronic countermeasures, transport delivery, defense, and even “three warfare” capabilities. Additionally, through positive interaction between military units, research institutions, and educational institutions, continuous exploration of the comprehensive effectiveness of drone forces should be undertaken, further standardizing relevant regulations and laws concerning drones, and promoting the development of drone warfare theories and practices to prevent the development of unmanned combat forces from being hindered by organizational constraints.(3) Exploring Tactics and Strategies Adapted to Drone Participation.The 2019 attacks on Saudi oil facilities and the 2022 attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure have both suffered heavy damage from swarm drone strikes. Drone swarm operations and strike reconnaissance operations have become important air-ground combat styles. Among them, using a large number of small, low-cost intelligent drones to conduct reconnaissance, penetration, and attack actions in a swarm collaborative manner poses challenges that traditional air defense systems find difficult to effectively respond to, bringing disruptive impacts and changes to traditional combat methods. This requires us to fully utilize the existing equipment system to effectively address unique drone combat methods such as “low and slow” aerial threats, mass swarm attacks, and “lone wolf” strikes, while also accelerating the development of anti-drone air defense equipment to effectively solve issues such as “invisibility,” “inability to intercept,” and “inability to destroy.”(4) Comprehensive Consideration of the Real Threats Posed by Drone Technology.Addressing potential drone threats requires systematic thinking and comprehensive measures. In various combat actions that may be encountered in the future, hostile parties may also utilize drones to achieve their political, economic, or military objectives, necessitating comprehensive consideration in preventing such issues. On one hand, strict control over the diffusion of drone technology is required, particularly for technologies capable of breaching electronic fences or carrying offensive weapons, with multiple measures such as electromagnetic spectrum control, airspace management, industry association management, network public opinion, and joint defense by military, police, and civilians implemented in key areas to prevent drone-related issues from arising. On the other hand, in responding to drone threats, it is essential to consider not only “military battles” and “economic battles” but also “political battles,” using political thinking to address drone issues, learning from Israel’s deployment of the “Iron Dome” air defense system around major cities to ensure “visibility” and “defensibility,” effectively enhancing public confidence and preventing panic and other social issues caused by drone attacks.
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