1. Company Fundamentals: Performance Reversal Imminent, Valuation at Historical Low
1. Financial Data Overview
Oshkosh (002913) achieved a revenue of 4.566 billion yuan in 2024 (up 5.45% year-on-year), but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 31.88% to 353 million yuan due to rising raw material prices, exchange rate fluctuations, and initial production costs at the Thailand base. However, Q1 2025 showed significant improvement: revenue increased by 19.16% year-on-year to 1.164 billion yuan, and net profit slightly rose by 0.61% to 112 million yuan, with a gross margin of 24.06% (above the industry average of 21.56%). This improvement is mainly attributed to the increased proportion of high-margin products (such as AI servers and automotive electronic PCBs) and the scale effect from the ramp-up of production capacity at the Thailand base.
2. Analyst Expectations and Valuation
Brokerage reports are generally optimistic about the company’s performance reversal: Changcheng Securities predicts a net profit of 443 million yuan in 2025 (up 25.4% year-on-year), corresponding to a PE of 13.9 times; Hexun.com provides a forecast of 566 million yuan for 2025, corresponding to a PE of only 16.7 times. The current stock price is 26.67 yuan, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.89, below the industry average, indicating significant safety margins.
3. Core Growth Engines
Thailand Base Expansion: The first phase has a monthly production capacity of 120,000 square meters, expected to contribute 800-1,000 million yuan in revenue by 2025, primarily serving automotive electronics and server customers, accelerated by the endorsement from Japan’s Meiko.
AI and Automotive Electronics Dual-Drive: Strategic cooperation with AMD to supply AI server motherboards, with related business revenue expected to grow by 50% in 2024; PCB for new energy vehicles covers onboard radar and domain controllers, with revenue growth of 35% in 2024, and AI server PCB revenue expected to account for 25% by 2025.
AIPC Technology Breakthrough: The world’s first mass production of HDI boards for AIPC, with prices 20% higher than traditional PC boards, and related revenue expected to account for 18% in 2024, benefiting significantly from the increase in AI PC penetration.
2. Industry Position and Competitive Advantages: Differentiated Technology Builds a Moat
1. Industry Landscape and Market Position
The PCB industry CR10 is less than 35%, and Oshkosh ranks in the third tier (2023 sales <50 billion yuan), but performs outstandingly in niche areas:
Server Sector: One of the few domestic manufacturers capable of mass-producing AI server motherboards, closely collaborating with AMD and NVIDIA, with products covering GPU motherboards and AI acceleration cards.
Automotive Electronics Sector: Core suppliers for leading automotive companies like BYD and NIO, with a leading market share in onboard PCBs.
Technical Barriers: The only company globally with six ultra-large intelligent production lines, improving production efficiency by 30%, with industry-leading yield rates; possesses core patents such as the “back-drilling D+0 operation method,” creating a technological closed loop.
2. Advantages of Global Layout
The Thailand base not only avoids trade barriers but also quickly penetrates the Japanese automotive electronics supply chain through Meiko Electronics (holding 15%), with overseas revenue expected to increase from 30% to 40% by 2025.
3. Potential Risks: Need to Watch Out for Debt and Industry Competition Pressure
1. Short-term Debt Risks
As of Q1 2025, cash and cash equivalents are 947 million yuan, with short-term debt at 1.671 billion yuan, resulting in a cash/short-term debt ratio of only 0.57, indicating liquidity pressure. The controlling shareholder’s pledge ratio is 13%, with a warning line at 24.46 yuan, and the current stock price is 26.67 yuan, necessitating attention to stock price fluctuations affecting pledge safety.
2. Intensifying Industry Competition
The PCB industry has low concentration, and price wars among small and medium-sized manufacturers may compress profit margins. Although the company maintains a gross margin above 24% through technological innovation, continuous R&D investment is required to stay ahead.
3. Raw Material Fluctuations
Copper-clad laminates (accounting for 40% of costs) are significantly affected by copper prices, with a 2.5 percentage point decline in gross margin due to rising copper prices in 2024, necessitating attention to LME copper price trends.
Conclusion: Technology + Capacity Dual-Drive, Valuation Recovery and Performance Growth Resonance
Oshkosh is at a critical turning point of “technological breakthrough – capacity release – performance realization”: the expansion of the Thailand base opens up growth space, and the explosive demand for AI and automotive electronics provides incremental growth, with current valuations significantly below the industry average. Despite facing short-term debt and industry competition pressures, in the medium to long term, the company’s technological barriers in the high-end PCB field and global layout give it the ability to navigate through cycles.
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