1. The Counterattack of Packaging and Testing Plants: Opening Up the Gap in Discourse Power
The export control incident involving ASE Semiconductor in Dongguan in October unexpectedly became a litmus test for the industry’s strength. The world’s largest packaging base halted operations for three days, forcing urgent consultations from the Netherlands — China accounts for 54% of the global chip packaging and testing capacity, which is no longer just the “workshop” at the end of the supply chain. When giants like Tesla and Bosch fell into anxiety due to the supply interruption of automotive-grade chips, the market suddenly understood: China holds the control over the “last mile before chip delivery.”
2. Breakthrough in Equipment: From 0 to 1, Tough Challenges Overcome
The leap in localization rate is happening: the localization rate of cleaning and de-bonding equipment has surpassed 50%, and the etching machines from Naura Technology have entered the 5nm advanced process, while Northern Huachuang has achieved full-category coverage from etching to ion implantation. Although the localization rate of advanced photolithography equipment is still less than 1%, the news that Shanghai Micro Electronics’ 28nm DUV equipment is about to enter mass production marks that the most critical “bottleneck” is being pried open.
The breakthroughs at the downstream application end are even more milestone-worthy. The DF30 automotive-grade MCU chip, led by Dongfeng Motor, is set to break the monopoly of Infineon and Renesas with mass production next year — it is worth noting that automotive power system chips were once a “no-man’s land” for domestic alternatives. Now, the completion of tests in the extreme cold of Mohe and the extreme heat of Turpan proves that Chinese chips can withstand extreme environmental challenges.
3. Capital Investment in the Billions: Patiently Nurturing the Flower of Technology
Industrial upgrades have never been a solo battle. The third phase of the Big Fund has entered with 344 billion yuan, focusing on the equipment and materials sector, with only Tuojing Technology receiving an investment of 450 million yuan. The 5 billion yuan Saimi Fund in Shenzhen, local state-owned capital investments, and leading companies like Northern Huachuang have formed CVCs, creating a three-dimensional support system of “national teams + industrial capital.”
The market’s vote is more real: the semiconductor index has surged 41.68% this year, with SMIC’s H shares rising over 132%, and northbound funds increasing their positions by 72.9 billion yuan in the third quarter. Behind Goldman Sachs’ upward revision of target prices is a rational judgment that “for every 1% increase in localization rate, a market worth hundreds of billions is generated.”
4. The Unfinished Road: A Guide for the Awakened to Break Through
However, “turnaround” does not equal “reaching the top.” The localization rate of film deposition equipment is less than 20%, high-end EDA tools are still monopolized by Synopsys, and there is an objective gap in advanced processes compared to TSMC. We must also be wary of the “low-end replacement trap” — if we are satisfied with the profits from mature processes, we may miss the next generation of technological windows.
The real breakthrough point lies within the innovation consortium of Dongfeng Motor: 44 companies cover the entire chain from standards to applications, proving that “collaborative operations” are more efficient than single-point breakthroughs with over 50 patents. As bank-affiliated AIC “long money” begins to flow in, and companies like Naura and Tuojing are willing to spend 10 years tackling the high-end market, China’s semiconductor industry is embarking on a long-term path of “technology + ecology.”
From ASE’s discourse power to the countdown to mass production of the DF30 chip, China’s semiconductor “turnaround” is not a dramatic counterattack, but an inevitable result of hundreds of billions in investment and thousands of people working hard. When the global supply chain realizes that “it cannot operate without China,” and when domestic equipment moves from laboratories to production lines, this industrial upgrade has long surpassed the scope of “replacement” — this marks a historical shift in the global semiconductor landscape from “dominated by Europe and America” to “multipolar coexistence.”