[Introduction]
In the past year, my trading strategy has shifted: from purely focusing on leading stocks to gradually identifying emotional cycles as starting points for trading. Although my understanding of emotional cycles has deepened, my account balance has unfortunately decreased instead of increased. 😔
I often watch live streams on Douyin and follow various influential public accounts, inputting information day after day, yet I have not seen effective feedback in my account. Later, I realized that the issue might not be due to insufficient input, but rather insufficient output. ❌
Without clearly expressing my thoughts, there exists cognitive ambiguity; if my judgment of the market is not clear enough, I am prone to making erroneous decisions—this is likely the root cause of my continuous losses. Establishing this public account is intended to help me clarify my thoughts, eliminate ambiguity, and find a way out of this predicament.
[Review of Yesterday] 🔴
[Review of Yesterday’s Optimal Solutions] 🔴
Zhijiang High-Tech saw a 6-8% increase, with two selling points in the morning and afternoon. The logic for selling in the morning was based on the expectation of divergence following yesterday’s peak, with the strength of divergence anchored to stocks with consecutive gains. The second board, Changchuan Technology, opened 1% higher, while the second board, Chengbang Co., opened flat, which was below expectations. The intention to sell at the opening indicated significant divergence in the sector, allowing for a sell-off of Zhijiang High-Tech during the morning surge.
The logic for selling in the afternoon was based on a volume-less rise in intraday trading, indicating a divergence between price and volume.
[Additional Insights from Yesterday’s Review] 🔴
Today, the computing power sector emerged, with the leading stock being Zhongdian Xindong. I noticed this stock but did not dare to invest. The reason was the lack of deeper exploration into the news that “Alibaba is actively promoting the construction of AI infrastructure worth 380 billion yuan.” Generally, I write articles for my public account during my morning commute, and by the time I finish, I have to go to work, leaving me with only a brief glance at pre-market information without time for in-depth research. I plan to set aside some time in the evening to write a review, allowing me to dedicate some time in the morning for research.
During chaotic periods, news and policies significantly influence the direction of capital. For instance, today’s chip divergence allowed other themes to rotate, such as consumer electronics, computing power, lithium batteries, and robotics. The reason capital ultimately chose computing power was due to the favorable news from Alibaba.
[Market Sentiment] 📊
● Emotional cycle node: Healthy divergence following the chip surge at the end of the initial opening cycle.
● Temperature/Number of stocks rising: 41/1437
● Number of stocks hitting the limit up/limit down: 41/6
● Premium for consecutive gains/Volume: 1.6/23711
● Change in volume: +443
● Bidding situation:
Intraday strength: Huarsoft Technology with an 1.1 billion limit order, Northern Copper Industry with an 1.1 billion, 2 into 3 Lianang Micro with 900 million, 1 into 2 Jingyi Co. with 400 million.
Tier: 4 into 5 Huarsoft Technology with an 1.1 billion limit order.
Emotional indicators: Shoukai Co. opened -1.5%, Hongdou Co. opened -6%.
Mainstream: Kaimete Gas opened -3.6%, Demingli opened -4%, second board Zhijiang High-Tech opened 2.4%, second board Changchuan Technology opened 1%.
Negative feedback: Shanzi High-Tech opened 0%, Hangdian Co. opened -9%, Fulongma opened -1%.
Chip sector: Changchuan Technology underperformed expectations, Kaimete Gas exceeded expectations, overall divergence, focusing on the front row.
Other directions: Anchoring each front row’s intraday performance to see which direction prevails.
Sentiment: Hangdian faced severe negative feedback, Shanzi High-Tech opened flat exceeding expectations, 4 boards of Fulongma slightly opened lower than expected, 3 boards of Hongdou Co. severely underperformed expectations.
The repair strength of emotional indicators is insufficient, with market divergence expectations, and no opportunities for early hand competition, paying attention to the intraday feedback of Fulongma and Shanzi High-Tech.
Kaimete Gas exceeded expectations, while other directions remain unclear based on intraday feedback.
[Market Capital Behavior] 📈
Healthy divergence following the chip surge is reflected in Kaimete Gas rebounding 7%, while other lagging stocks resisted divergence, with the second board Chengbang dropping 8%.
Rotations in communications, nuclear power, robotics, artificial intelligence, and computing power require extra attention, especially the second board of Weiwang New Materials in robotics, Zhongdian Xindong in computing power 1+2, and the communication sector’s Cambridge Technology.
The divergence in the chip sector is not significant enough, and there is a possibility of continued divergence tomorrow. Kaimete Gas choosing to rebound during weak divergence in the sector is a strong performance.
If the sector shows significant divergence tomorrow, Kaimete Gas must resist divergence; without a competitive angle, we can only observe the strength of support for a bit of trial and error.
If the sector shows recovery tomorrow, Kaimete Gas should accelerate; from the K-line perspective, it has been four consecutive days of positive lines, which does not provide a comfortable entry point. If there was no early hand today, the later hand will be particularly uncomfortable.
With a bit of subjectivity, I view the current cycle as still being in the rotation under the initial opening cycle, but the rotation in chips needs to be more sustainable and powerful. The initial opening cycle has not ended, and the chip cycle’s initiation faces some resistance, making it not so smooth. It would be best if the initial opening shows a rebound to form a double top before ending, providing a position for next week’s main rise in chips or computing power.
[Sector Analysis] 🧡
🔹 Chips: Limit up 1. Healthy divergence following the chip surge is reflected in Kaimete Gas rebounding 7%, Demingli down 2.6%, second board Zhijiang High-Tech rising and then falling back, second board Chengbang dropping 8%, weak divergence, with expectations of continued divergence tomorrow.
🔹 Computing Power: Highest board 1+2 Zhongdian Xindong, with Zhongjun Zhongke Shuguang and Inspur Information.
[Emotional Anchoring for Tomorrow] 📍
Intraday strength: Huarsoft Technology, Lianang Micro.
Tier: 5 boards Huarsoft Technology, 4 boards Lanfeng Biochemical Lianmei Holdings.
Emotional indicators: Shoukai Co., Kaimete Gas.
Mainstream: None
Negative feedback: Fulongma, Hangdian Co.
[Optimal Solutions for September 25] ✅
Kaimete Gas, late-stage ambush on Shoukai.
[Positions] 🔅
Guoxuan High-Tech: Rotating around technology + domestic substitution of solid-state batteries + solid-state battery conference + policy catalysis.
Yongxin Optical: Lithography machine + three boards breaking + retesting platform + emotional stocks with significant divergence today and expected repair tomorrow + low recognition under the chip main line.
✨ Follow me, and let’s grow together in trading, thinking clearly and making rational decisions. 💬 Feel free to leave your review opinions or questions in the comments section, and let’s communicate and improve together!