Recently, the All-In Podcast on YouTube released a remote interview with Elon Musk at Tesla’s global engineering headquarters. Musk stated that when the Optimus humanoid robot reaches an annual production of 1 million units, the cost per unit will be around $20,000 to $25,000; by 2025, the third-generation design, Optimus V3, will achieve human-level hand dexterity, equipped with an AI brain capable of understanding the real world, and will have large-scale production capabilities.Whether Musk is exaggerating, I do not know. If he is not, what consequences will arise?
A humanoid robot costing $20,000 to $25,000, assuming a market price of $30,000 to $40,000. It does not require social security, health insurance, does not need breaks, will not strike, and only needs electricity. Assuming its lifespan is 5-10 years (I initially wanted to assume a ten-year depreciation, but a professor friend in computer science said that the more refined and flexible the humanoid robot is, the more likely its components are to fail; currently, it is common for them to break down after one year of use), the annual depreciation cost is $2,000 to $5,000, and the costs for electricity, maintenance, and AI computing power (mainly electricity + chip and server depreciation) are assumed to be in the same range, totaling an annual cost of $4,000 to $10,000.
Currently, the average pre-tax annual salary for American workers is about $50,000 to $100,000.
Assuming the robot works without rest for 11 months a year (11 times 30 times 24, close to 8,000 hours), with one month for maintenance, its working hours are equivalent to 4 workers (8 hours a day, 5 days a week, with 20 days of paid vacation, resulting in nearly 2,000 hours of work per year).
In summary, the annual cost of the robot is $4,000 to $10,000, while the annual cost for American workers is $200,000 to $400,000, resulting in a ratio of about 1:20 to 1:100.
Therefore, robots can easily outperform American workers.
No capitalist will be indifferent to humanoid robots.
If the highly flexible, intelligent, and cost-effective AI humanoid robots that Musk describes truly emerge, the majority of jobs in human society will disappear, leaving only a few positions: 1. Top scientists; 2. Politicians; 3. A few artists, salespeople, and actors (providing emotional value); 4. Servants for the wealthy (as the rich may prefer vintage services and, not needing to save, want to enjoy human services, such as individual tailors, chefs, and postpartum caregivers).
Of course, in poorer countries, labor is cheap, and if combined with modern production lines, the cost difference with AI humanoid robots may not be significant. For example, workers in poorer Southeast Asian countries have a total pre-tax annual wage cost of 20,000 RMB (about $2,800), working 50 hours a week for 2,500 hours a year. To match the efficiency and working hours of robots, the labor cost would be $9,000, which is not necessarily higher than the robot’s cost of $4,000 to $10,000.
The impact on China is also negative. For Chinese workers to match the efficiency and working hours of robots, the labor cost would need to be $20,000 to $30,000, far exceeding that of robots. Moreover, with the advent of humanoid robots in the West, they can compensate for the high labor costs and compete more effectively with Chinese industry.
In other words, the humanoid robots Musk speaks of may lead to job losses in some countries, while having a smaller impact on poorer countries like Bangladesh, Myanmar, Cambodia, and Africa.
Of course, many people say that if there are no jobs, it’s okay to collect robot taxes and AI taxes, and then the government can provide a basic income to support the unemployed. The idea is beautiful, but the consequences are severe. If there are no jobs, and young people are supported at home, some may face issues: becoming idle, reclusive, lacking spiritual support, and having no social interactions or opportunities to rise (class solidification).
Furthermore, if the U.S. were to implement a basic income to ensure that the majority of unemployed citizens do not see a decline in income and living standards, due to their high prices and wages, the robot tax and AI tax would be very high, which could ultimately lead to American industrial products lacking price competitiveness in exports. After all, the U.S. cannot avoid selling AI products and humanoid robots globally.