Semiconductor Funds: The ‘Hardcore Top Stream’ in the Tech Circle – Should You Invest Now or Wait? A Comprehensive Analysis of Investment Logic!

Attention all “Tech Investors”! As the “industrial staple” and “foundation of technology”, semiconductors not only support half of the mobile phones, chips, and AI but also serve as the “emotional switch” in the investment circle—soaring like a tiger when prices rise and causing heartaches when they fall. With the industry undergoing multiple changes, should we follow the trend or remain calm and observe? Today, let’s break down the investment logic of semiconductor funds in simple terms!

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1. Understanding First: Why Can Semiconductor Funds Become the ‘Top Stream’ in Technology?

Not all technology funds can naturally attract attention; the core advantages of semiconductors lie in their “irreplaceability” and “high growth potential”:

1. Strong Policy Support: The world is competing for semiconductor autonomy, with domestic policies providing subsidies and support for the industry chain, intensifying the push for “domestic substitution”—after all, being constrained by chips is painful, and self-sufficiency is the only way forward. In the long run, the certainty of this track is maximized;
2. Unlimited Demand: AI large models, new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, IoT, VR/AR… as long as it’s a device with “intelligence”, it cannot do without semiconductor chips. The downstream demand is growing like a “snowball”;
3. High Growth Elasticity: Although the semiconductor industry is cyclical, the rapid technological iteration (for example, from 7nm to 5nm, 3nm) means that once the industry’s prosperity rebounds, the profits of design, manufacturing, and equipment companies in the industry chain can double, and the fund’s net value will naturally “take off”.

2. Current Status of Semiconductor Funds: Where Are the Opportunities? What Are the Variables?

1. Opportunity Points: Multiple Positive Resonances

• Accelerated Domestic Substitution: The domestic localization rate of semiconductor equipment, materials, and EDA tools (chip design software) is still very low; for example, the localization rate of equipment is less than 20%. Every percentage point increase in the future represents a huge increment;
• Industry Cycle Bottoming Out: After previous adjustments, global semiconductor inventory is gradually being reduced, and some sub-sectors (such as power semiconductors and automotive semiconductors) have already shown signs of order recovery;
• AI Driving the Explosion of “Computing Power Chips”: Large model training and data centers require massive amounts of high-end chips, directly driving demand in semiconductor design and manufacturing, becoming a new growth engine for the industry.

2. Risk Points: Be Aware of These Risks

• Cyclical Fluctuations: The semiconductor industry is a typical “strong cyclical industry”; supply-demand imbalances and price fluctuations can affect corporate profits, and fund net values may experience significant ups and downs;
• Rapid Technological Iteration: Today’s advanced technology may become obsolete tomorrow. If the companies heavily invested in by the fund cannot keep up with the pace of technological advancement, they may be easily abandoned by the market;
• International Policy Risks: External factors such as chip export restrictions and technology blockades may suddenly impact the industry chain, leading to short-term pressure on the industry.

3. How to Choose Semiconductor Funds? A Guide for Beginners

Semiconductor funds are mainly divided into “active” and “passive” types; choosing the right type is more important than blindly following trends:

1. Passive Funds: Beginner-Friendly, Low-Cost Following

• Index Tracking: Common ones includeGuozheng Semiconductor Index, CSI Semiconductor Industry Index, Sci-Tech Chip Index, covering the entire industry chain or sub-sectors;
• Advantages: Transparent holdings (buying according to the index), low fees (management fees are generally around 0.5%), no need to worry about the fund manager’s stock-picking ability, suitable for those looking to invest long-term and avoid pitfalls;
• Note: Volatility is completely tied to the industry cycle; when the industry falls, it will also be “precisely hit”.

2. Active Funds: Expert Betting, Betting on Fund Manager’s Insight

• Characteristics: Fund managers will select individual stocks, focusing on sub-sectors such as “semiconductor equipment” and “domestic EDA”, or avoiding companies at the cyclical low;
• Advantages: If the fund manager’s stock selection is accurate, it may outperform the index during industry fluctuations and even capture hidden gems;
• Note: Higher fees (management fees around 1.5%), reliant on the fund manager’s ability; if the direction is wrong, it may fall even more than the index.

3. How to Choose Sub-Sectors?

• If you want stability: Choose broad-based index funds that cover the entire industry chain to diversify the risk of a single sector;
• If you want to pursue high returns: Focus on sub-sectors like “semiconductor equipment”, “semiconductor materials”, and “computing power chips”—these sectors have significant domestic substitution potential and higher growth elasticity, but also come with greater risks.

4. Should You Buy Now? Advice for Different Investors

1. Beginner Investors: Don’t go all in! You can enter the market using a “regular investment” method (for example, investing a fixed amount of 500-1000 yuan each month) to average out costs over time and avoid being scared off by short-term fluctuations;
2. Conservative Investors: Keep your allocation within 10%-15% of total funds, treating semiconductor funds as part of your “technology sector allocation”; don’t put all your eggs in one basket;
3. Aggressive Investors: If you want to buy at the bottom, prioritize targets that are “valued at historical lows + clear performance turning points”, but be sure to set stop-loss lines to avoid being trapped by cyclical adjustments;
4. Long-term Investors: If you believe in the long-term trend of domestic substitution over 5-10 years, don’t get caught up in short-term fluctuations; invest when prices are low and hold long-term to ignore volatility and earn from growth.

5. Final Reminder: Invest Rationally, Don’t Be Misled by Emotions

The core logic of semiconductor funds is “long-term growth + domestic substitution”, but short-term volatility is inevitable—chasing high prices can lead to standing idle, and cutting losses may cause you to miss rebounds. Remember:

• Don’t blindly follow “rumors”; understand what you are buying before making a purchase;
• Don’t use living expenses or emergency funds to invest in semiconductor funds; high elasticity = high risk;
• Technology investment relies on vision and patience; short-term fluctuations are just “processes”, while long-term industry trends are the “results”.

Investment carries risks; semiconductor funds are highly volatile. Invest rationally and don’t let market emotions lead you astray!