The semiconductor index rose by3%, and the atmosphere of domestic substitution and self-control is indeed good, driving the three major indices to break through the60day moving average. Cambrian Technology rose by6%, Zhaoyi Innovation rose by7%, and SMIC rose nearly4%. Compared to Zhongji Xuchuang, which reached a new high, these stocks are more capable of driving bullish momentum. However, their mid-term adjustments have not yet been completed, and they closed lower in the afternoon. This rebound has at least a positive significance, as it has repaired the slope of the semiconductor’s downward adjustment.
This week’s rebound is mainly driven by technology. The influence of Google in the US stock market is the core driving force. Today’s closing roughly flipped, and among the technology sub-industries, except for theCPO index which has crossed the60day moving average, other indices including semiconductors, robotics, consumer electronics, etc., are all below the60day moving average, indicating that the fluctuations over the past few days have not changed the mid-term downward trend.CPO at this high level, even if it stands above the60day moving average, its significance is limited, as it is merely leveraging small narratives to boost the leading stocks. The probability of initiating a new wave of market is low. It is advisable to watch more and act less; novices die from chasing highs, while veterans die from rebounds.
In the morning, the State Council Information Office held a press conference to promote consumption policies, with a lot of content. After the market closed, many media outlets reported that consumption surged. Upon review, similar to previous announcements to promote consumption, the increases are mainly in low-priced retail and department store categories, which raises questions about the logic behind it. Blue-chip consumer companies remained stable, with more declines than rises, indicating that funds are participating in the technology rebound. Additionally, media reports mentioned a surge in battery stocks, but there wasn’t much feeling; it seems that CATL has experienced six consecutive days of decline.
The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index have both filled the downward gap from the 21st, while the Shanghai Composite Index is still some distance from filling the gap (3921 points). In this sense, the current weak rebound still has some running time and space, but it is also of limited value. It is hoped that sectors outside of technology will also see a rebound.
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