Brother Qian stared at his phone, the K-line chart surged upwards like an electrocardiogram, ash fell on the keyboard, leaving a small black mark. This was the third time this month he missed the semiconductor limit-up. In his social circle, friends who used to enjoy skewers together have already bought a Model Y with cash from chip stocks, and their license plates are even more sequential than his phone number. The drama in the brokerage firm is more exciting than the K-line itself. Gao Le from Galaxy Securities sips goji berries from his thermos, saying, “The valuation repair is nearing its end.” Liang Chengwei from Wucai Securities slams the PPT on domestic substitution, as if lithography machines will be sent to the countryside tomorrow. The most outrageous is Zhou Jian from Galaxy, who talks about “long-term golden pits” with his left hand and “short-term volatility intensifying” with his right, splitting his words in half, making it seem like he’s right either way. Retail investors ask him if they should jump in, and he smiles, saying, “Strategies need to be dynamically calibrated.” — In plain language: I have reasons for both rises and falls. The stock forum has already split into three factions: 1. The Leg Slappers — “If I had mortgaged my house last year, it would have been fine; now I can only slap my thighs.” 2. The Overzealous — “Go all in! Semiconductors are the next real estate!” 3. The Lemon Squad — “Waiting to see the fireworks, it would be best if it drops back to last year, so I can feel balanced.” The truth is, institutions have already picked up most of the chips at the bottom, and now the noise is just the BGM for finding someone to take over. You think you’re on the high-speed train, but it might actually be the last bus. A fund manager managing billions told me at a barbecue stall at night: “Chasing chips now is like a nightclub at 2 AM; when the lights go out, it’s all about luck. Earnings season is when the lights come on; it doesn’t matter how good the story sounds, you have to see if the fundamentals are there.” He took a bite of kidney and added, “We’ve already filled our positions; the remaining actions are just to make the net value curve look better for launching new products.” The real beneficiaries are the outsiders: 1. A lady selling pancakes at Zhangjiang Gate, whose ‘chip set meal’ with three slices of bacon sold out. 2. Headhunter Xiao D, who earned a BYD car in three months by recruiting FAE (Field Application Engineers). 3. Old Wang from the Python training class, who overnight changed the course name to “Chip Design from 0 to 1,” doubling the tuition, and the classroom is still packed. They don’t understand lithography machines, but they understand human nature. If you’re feeling impulsive now, first self-test with three questions: 1. How many nanometers apart are DUV and EUV? 2. When is the deadline for the third quarter forecast, and what is the upper limit for the increase? 3. Will losing 30% of the money in your account affect your mortgage? If you can’t answer one of these questions, don’t leverage. If you really want to experience it, buy a chip ETF first; at least when it crashes, you can curse the fund manager with everyone else instead of crying alone at the K-line. The grave of Internet+ from 2015 is already three meters high; the most excited group back then is now in rights protection groups cursing themselves with the harshest words. The chip industry is a long march; only those who survive have the right to talk about profits. Once the principal is wiped out, you can’t even get to the gambling table; you can only be a keyboard warrior in the comments section. — The market has risks; gambling requires caution. All views in this article are drunken talk from the barbecue stall and do not constitute investment advice.