Robot Mass Production Timeline

(一)

U.S. Government Shutdown Crisis Comes to an End

The prolonged federal government shutdown crisis has officially ended, with a short-term funding bill passed.

On November 8, local time, both chambers of the U.S. Congress voted to pass the short-term funding bill. The Senate approved the bill with a vote of 62 to 38, followed by the House of Representatives with a vote of 289 to 143, which will provide operational funding for the federal government until December 15.

The White House subsequently announced that federal employees would return to work starting on the 9th. The economic and livelihood crisis previously affected by the shutdown has temporarily eased.

The two parties now have a month to continue “budget negotiations.”

(二)

Xiaopeng Unveils Robot “IRON” Sparking Controversy

From intelligent wheels to embodied intelligence.

On November 5, Xiaopeng Motors showcased its next-generation humanoid robot IRON at the 2025 Technology Day, whose realistic catwalk and female form ignited discussions online, even raising doubts about whether it was a real person.

Subsequently, He Xiaopeng clarified through a continuous video, proving that IRON is indeed its own creation. Following the release of the clarification video, Xiaopeng’s stock price surged sharply, with a maximum increase of 5.76%. Behind this controversy is Xiaopeng’s successful debut in the robotics field through the integration of automotive technologies (such as power control, sensing systems, and AI chips).

01 New VLA Large Model Open-Sourced Globally

At the Technology Day, Xiaopeng Motors launched four major products: the second-generation VLA (Vision-Language-Action) large model, Xiaopeng Robotaxi, the next-generation humanoid robot IRON, and flying cars.

In my opinion, the second-generation VLA large model is Xiaopeng’s biggest breakthrough.

Its revolutionary aspect lies in achieving an upgrade in experience by completing a “de-subtitling” process—AI no longer needs to “translate” visual information into language code for understanding, but instead, like a biological entity, achieves a seamless connection from “seeing” to “reacting.” This end-to-end direct connection path seems familiar, as it resembles Tesla’s FSD visual model and Optimus’s automatic learning path.

The current intelligent driving sector has diverged into two clear technical paths: one represented by Tesla, the “pure vision” faction, advocating for advanced visual algorithms to simulate human driving logic, aiming to achieve large-scale deployment at the lowest cost; the other represented by some domestic automakers and tech companies, the “multi-sensor fusion” faction, which provides more comprehensive safety redundancy for advanced intelligent driving through the redundant fusion of LiDAR, millimeter-wave radar, and visual systems.

The latest VLA large model released by Xiaopeng undoubtedly positions itself on the “pure vision” camp at the core algorithm level. This indicates that the battle has shifted from a “hardware arms race” in sensor quantity to a “software algorithm showdown” in visual cognition and decision-making capabilities.

Additionally, the second-generation VLA large model will be open-sourced to global business partners, with Volkswagen becoming its first customer.

02 Three Major Product Layouts

The second-generation VLA is Xiaopeng’s first mass-produced physical world large model, serving as both an action generation model and a physical world model for understanding and reasoning.

This model can be applied across domains in automobiles, Robotaxi, robots, and flying cars.

In the Robotaxi sector, Xiaopeng plans to launch three Robotaxi models in 2026 and initiate trial operations.

He Xiaopeng also proposed a new concept: one is a fully shared Robotaxi model, and the other is a private mode, which is a human-driven L4 level vehicle.

In 2026, Xiaopeng Motors will simultaneously launch a new intelligent driving version vehicle “Robo,” which shares the same origin as Robotaxi, featuring the same hardware configuration, safety redundancy, and intelligent driving capabilities, equipped with two intelligent driving modes to meet diverse user needs.

Robotaxi is a fully shared vehicle without a steering wheel, while Robo is a private L4 level vehicle with a steering wheel.

03 Commercialization Path

Compared to last year’s attempt to have robots “screw bolts,” Xiaopeng has planned a more realistic commercialization path for the IRON robot this year.

He Xiaopeng admitted, “Screwing bolts is too labor-intensive; the robot’s hand basically needs to be replaced every month, and the cost of the robot hand can offset 3-5 years of labor costs, making it very uneconomical.

IRON will prioritize entering commercial scenarios to provide services such as guiding, shopping assistance, and patrol.

Baosteel will become an ecological partner for Xiaopeng’s robots, with Xiaopeng IRON set to be deployed at Baosteel to explore applications in complex industrial fields such as inspections.

In the flying car sector, Xiaopeng Huotian has built two flight systems: a land carrier for personal low-altitude flights and a fully tilting hybrid flying car A868 for efficient low-altitude travel for multiple people.

The global order for land carriers has exceeded 7000 units, entering the eve of mass production.

04 Mass Production Timeline and Challenges

Xiaopeng has set clear timelines for various technologies: the second-generation VLA will be fully pushed to Xiaopeng Ultra models in the first quarter of 2026.

Most notably, He Xiaopeng announced that mass production of humanoid robots will be achieved by the end of 2026.

This goal is even more aggressive than that of its peers. In the recently concluded third-quarter earnings call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced a reduction in production expectations, abandoning the 2025 mass production target and postponing the Optimus mass production plan to the end of 2026.

Mass production of humanoid robots faces numerous challenges, including high manufacturing costs, consistency in mass production processes, and the ultimate commercial viability.

There are already some non-humanoid robot tour guide, shopping assistance, and patrol service providers in the domestic market, but these companies have been struggling around the breakeven point.

05 Global Competition in Humanoid Robots Intensifies

Just as Xiaopeng Technology made its announcement, Tesla’s Optimus robot also showcased new progress.

Elon Musk shared a video of Optimus dancing at Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting, demonstrating the robot’s ability to mimic human movements.

Domestically, Yushu Technology and other companies are also actively laying out.

Yushu Technology recently released its latest model, the Unitree H2, which stands about 180 cm tall and weighs about 70 kg, with natural and smooth movements.

Previously, Yushu Technology also released a new action video of the G1 robot, which can perform continuous front flips and other high-difficulty movements.

The global humanoid robot field is showing a competitive landscape between China and the U.S. Tesla’s Optimus showcases its agility through dance videos, while Yushu Technology’s G1 combat robot can deliver powerful punches in the ring and can complete a “fish leap” recovery within 4 seconds after being knocked down.

The unique advantage of Xiaopeng IRON lies in its high degree of humanization and clear commercialization path.

However, the industry consensus is that “everyone can showcase humanoid robots, but only a few can mass-produce them.” Xiaopeng’s set mass production timeline of the end of 2026 aligns with Tesla’s postponed plan.

This competition concerning the future has only just begun.

That’s all for today~

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