Today, while on a business trip, I want to share a few thoughts.In the morning, the A-shares continued the “hesitation” from yesterday’s bull market, but later, driven by the chip concept, the market opened up and entered an upward channel.The core news stimulus is that Alibaba’s CEO, Wu Yongming, stated at the Yunqi Conference:Alibabawill increase its capital expenditure beyond the 380 billion baseline.The goal of Tongyi Qianwen is to create the Android system of the AI era. Large models are the next generation of operating systems.AI Cloud is the next generation of computing. In the future, there may only be 5-6 super cloud computing platforms worldwide.After his speech, Alibaba’s stock began to rise, and by the afternoon, while I was writing, Alibaba had already increased by 7%.Regarding AI technology and future prospects, many aspects have yet to be validated, and many people cannot understand or see clearly.However, substantial capital expenditure means more opportunities for profit along the industrial chain in the future.In the early stages of a technological revolution, significant capital expenditure also indicates that the company has greater potential to secure a ticket to the new world.Since these are all expectations, the greater the effort, the more the market is willing to be optimistic about it, just like the image that circulated the most yesterday—
Do you think there is a bubble in this process? There definitely is.But having a bubble does not necessarily mean it will burst, nor can we be sure when it will burst; furthermore, not having a bubble does not guarantee that prices will rise.This is something you can ponder over.What we need to do more is to focus on good strategies, considering the worst-case scenario for the safety of our accounts.One way is to enjoy more profits from the “fish head” portion early on, with a higher safety cushion; another way is to take small positions for short-term trades, and once profits are made, transfer them to fixed income.However, regarding the surge in the chip sector, if you solely focus on this industry, profits must reach at least 100% to be considered relatively safe.Recently, due to the impact of lithography machines, the market has seen more gains from chip manufacturers, such as SMIC and funds related to chip equipment.However, today’s surge is a resonance across the entire upstream and downstream industrial chain, with all ten of the most followed ETFs today related to chip AI.
In the past few days, the rise in chip manufacturing was more stimulated by news of technological innovation, while today, it was Alibaba’s capital expenditure that opened up the market’s imagination.As I mentioned earlier, if one company has such significant capital expenditure, then the combined capital of all giants will be quite imaginative, benefiting the entire upstream and downstream.In addition to the semiconductor industry rising, Chinese concept stocks are also starting to rise due to Alibaba’s influence.This again follows the logic I mentioned earlier; although this is a “roll” of capital expenditure, everyone believesthat significant capital expenditure in the early stages of a technological revolution indicates that the company has greater potential.Therefore, everyone is now looking at companies not based on valuation or net profit, but on capital expenditure.If you can’t spend your money, it proves you are not capable.Not only are we like this, but the US stock market also has this attitude towards tech stocks; otherwise, it wouldn’t have invented the perpetual motion machine of stock market rises.After all, according to the logic of the perpetual motion machine, the more you earn, the more you spend, with no profit.Interestingly, the largest tech innovation chip ETF is managed by Harvest Fund.Although its scale has already exceeded 30 billion, and it seems poised to set a new historical high, the shares have been continuously decreasing since July.
Of course, this reduction in positions may also come back through other means, such as broad-based indices like the Science and Technology 50, or by directly buying individual stocks.However, it still indicates that there has been some divergence in funds during the rise.……